BEIRUT, Lebanon – Iraq is facing increasing pressure to confront Iran-aligned armed groups as the widening U.S.-Iran conflict threatens to draw the country deeper into the regional war.
Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s government has spent years trying to maintain working relationships with both Washington and Tehran while preventing Iraq from becoming a battleground between competing powers. That strategy is becoming more difficult as Iran-aligned Iraqi militias attack U.S. interests and regional targets, prompting retaliatory strikes.
The dispute is also intensifying a longstanding debate over whether Baghdad can bring powerful armed factions fully under state control without triggering an internal confrontation.
Strikes expose Iraq’s security dilemma
Saudi Arabia accused Iran-backed Iraqi armed groups of using drones to attack petroleum facilities on Monday and Tuesday. The groups denied involvement, with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq describing the accusations as fabrications and suggesting that Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen were responsible.
Saudi and U.S. retaliatory strikes subsequently hit bases belonging to the Popular Mobilization Forces, or PMF, a coalition of predominantly Shiite armed groups with close ties to Iran.
The PMF said the strikes killed at least 20 of its members and wounded 32 others.
Iraq’s National Security Council condemned the attacks, saying they caused civilian casualties and undermined the authority of the Iraqi state. The council said the government had been investigating concerns raised by Saudi Arabia and the United States and remained committed to bringing weapons under state control.
The escalation also disrupted planned diplomacy. Al-Zaidi had been scheduled to travel to Saudi Arabia on Thursday, but the visit was postponed indefinitely after the latest hostilities.
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PMF factions maintain ties to Iran
The PMF became a major military force after Islamic State militants captured large areas of Iraq in 2014. Predominantly Shiite and Iran-backed factions joined the fight against Islamic State alongside the U.S.-led international coalition.
Iraq formally recognized the PMF as an independent military formation within the country’s armed forces in 2016. Several of its constituent factions, however, have retained significant operational and command autonomy.
Lahib Higel of the International Crisis Group said that while the PMF formally reports to Iraq’s military command, many brigades have continued to operate through command structures developed when they functioned as separate armed groups.
That autonomy has become more consequential during the current regional conflict. Since the United States and Israel went to war with Iran on Feb. 28, Iran-aligned Iraqi militias have repeatedly targeted U.S. military bases and diplomatic facilities, as well as energy infrastructure.
Disarmament puts Baghdad under pressure
Al-Zaidi’s government has committed to disarming armed groups operating outside direct state control. The government has set Sept. 30 as the deadline for non-state factions to surrender their weapons, coinciding with the deadline for U.S. troops stationed in Iraq to complete their withdrawal.
The policy puts Baghdad under competing pressures.
Washington is likely to seek stronger action against Iran-aligned militias, while confronting the most powerful factions directly could risk armed conflict inside Iraq. Delaying disarmament, meanwhile, could increase tensions with the United States.
Al-Zaidi came to power earlier this year as a consensus candidate following months of political deadlock after parliamentary elections. He was backed by a coalition of Shiite parties aligned with Iran but has also received support from U.S. President Donald Trump, who welcomed him at the White House this month.
The competing relationships leave the Iraqi government with limited room to maneuver as it attempts to preserve relations with both Washington and Tehran.
Some factions reject disarmament
Some PMF factions could potentially be incorporated more fully into Iraq’s armed forces and placed under centralized military command. Others, including the powerful Kataib Hezbollah, which maintains particularly close ties to Iran, have rejected disarmament.
Higel said the process could take months or years and that only a small number of factions had agreed to surrender their weapons. Groups that identify themselves as part of the regional “resistance” have rejected the government’s approach.
She said continued fighting between the United States and Iran could make disarmament more difficult because factions that identify with Iran’s regional network may view the conflict as an opportunity to continue armed operations.
Iraq seeks to preserve state authority
For Baghdad, the challenge extends beyond whether individual militias will surrender their weapons. The government must attempt to consolidate control over armed forces while avoiding a domestic confrontation with groups that possess military capabilities, political influence and ties to Iran.
The Sept. 30 disarmament deadline could therefore become an important test of the government’s ability to strengthen state authority while managing pressure from both Washington and Tehran.
As the U.S.-Iran conflict continues, Iraq’s longstanding effort to balance its relationships with the two powers faces increasing strain. Baghdad’s ability to maintain that position will depend in part on whether it can address militia activity without opening another front inside the country.
This report is based on reporting by The Associated Press.
