JERUSALEM, Israel – Arab-led political parties could influence who forms Israel’s next government, but their projected seats may not translate into a place in the governing coalition.
Polling averages published in mid-October show that neither the bloc aligned with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor the parties seeking a change of government appear close to securing a majority on their own. Arab-led parties could hold enough seats to affect the arithmetic. However, major political leaders have publicly rejected at least some forms of partnership with them.
Israelis vote on October 27 to elect the 120-member Knesset. A government needs the support of a majority of lawmakers, normally at least 61, to command a majority. The election remains ahead, so current seat estimates are projections, not results.
Polls point to a close contest
The Petek’s polling tracker, updated on October 15, placed Netanyahu’s bloc at 52 seats and the opposition-oriented Change bloc at 51. It estimated that the Joint List would win eight seats and Ra’am five, giving the two Arab-led lists a combined projection of 13.
The Middle East Forum’s separate poll average placed the Netanyahu bloc at 54 seats, the opposition parties at 53 and Arab-led parties at 13. The difference between the two trackers illustrates why bloc totals should not be treated as precise forecasts.
Individual polls also show variation. A Channel 14 survey conducted by Shlomo Filber and published on October 14 projected 29 seats for Likud, Netanyahu’s party, and five for Ra’am. A Channel 13 survey published the same day, based on a reported sample of 1,018 respondents, projected 18 seats for Likud and six for Ra’am. It placed the Joint List at nine seats.
These figures come from different polling organizations and may reflect differences in methods, fieldwork and assumptions about voter behavior. The retrieved reports do not provide a complete, comparable account of fieldwork dates and methodology for every survey. The estimates therefore show the range of possible outcomes, not a settled electoral picture.
Even if the Arab-led lists win around 13 seats, their influence will depend on which other parties enter the Knesset, whether those parties can agree on a government and what forms of cooperation they will accept.
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Coalition refusals narrow the options
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and prominent opposition figures have said they will not form a coalition with Arab-led parties, according to reporting published by The Associated Press on October 16.
The report identifies former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, a leading opposition figure, as opposed to an alliance with Arab-led parties. It also notes that Yair Lapid, who led the government formed in 2021, told AP in May that he would not form another coalition with Ra’am.
Those statements matter, but their scope should not be overstated. Rejecting formal coalition membership does not necessarily establish a refusal to accept outside parliamentary support for a minority government or to cooperate on individual legislation. Each leader’s precise position needs to be assessed from the original statement and its context.
The distinction could prove important if neither major bloc wins 61 seats. A party might refuse to join a government but still consider supporting a confidence vote or selected legislation. Conversely, a public refusal of all forms of cooperation would close off more options.
The available reporting establishes broad political resistance to partnership. It does not, by itself, resolve every leader’s position on every possible arrangement.
Ra’am and the Joint List offer different approaches
Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, has pursued a pragmatic strategy focused on securing practical gains for Palestinian citizens of Israel. Abbas helped bring an Arab-led party into a governing coalition in 2021, a major departure from the previous pattern of Arab-led parties remaining outside government.
In the current campaign, Abbas has emphasized issues including crime and public safety. AP reported that he condemned Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack and has focused less on the war in Gaza and the occupation of the West Bank than on local concerns.
The Joint List, led by Yousef Jabareen, has adopted a less conciliatory approach, according to AP’s reporting. Jabareen has described the election as existential and said Arab political representatives need to use their parliamentary power to prevent further deterioration in their community’s situation.
These approaches are not interchangeable. Ra’am’s experience in government gives it a precedent for seeking influence through coalition participation. The Joint List’s strategy and political priorities differ, and it has not joined a governing coalition.
Neither party’s projected seat total establishes what terms it would demand before supporting a government. The available material identifies crime and public safety as important issues, but a complete account of each party’s current conditions requires direct confirmation from party representatives and a review of their published platforms.
Court ruling allows both party lists to contest the election
The Central Elections Committee voted on September 23 to disqualify Ra’am and the Joint List from the election. Israel’s Supreme Court overturned those decisions on October 2, allowing both lists to contest the October 27 vote.
Adalah, the legal organization that represented the parties in the proceedings, said the nine-justice court unanimously overturned the disqualifications. The Times of Israel also reported that the court found the lists did not meet the legal criteria for disqualification based on racist incitement or support for armed conflict against Israel.
The court separately ruled, by seven votes to two, against disqualifying Joint List lawmaker Ofer Cassif. That individual-candidate decision should not be confused with the rulings on the party lists.
The proceedings involving Sami Abu Shehadeh were separate. Reports say the case concerning the Balad chairman was dismissed after he withdrew his candidacy. His case should not be presented as though the court issued the same ruling on his candidacy as it did for Ra’am and the Joint List.
The distinction is significant: the party lists were cleared to run, but individual candidacies were considered separately. The available reporting summarizes the outcomes, but the full court judgment still needs to be obtained before the article can give a definitive account of the court’s legal reasoning.
Crime and public services are central community concerns
The coalition debate also concerns the issues Arab-led parties say they want to address for Palestinian citizens of Israel, who make up about one-fifth of the country’s population.
AP reported that Arab communities face high rates of violent crime and that activists blame police negligence for the failure to control it. Police, in turn, have attributed some of the problem to a lack of cooperation from community leaders. These competing explanations should remain attributed rather than presented as settled findings.
The Abraham Initiatives, an Israeli organization that advocates equal rights, reported 184 crime-related killings in Arab communities during the year to the time of AP’s report. The organization also said that only 12% of cases reported during the first half of 2026 had been solved. These figures describe a serious public-safety concern, but they should be checked against the organization’s underlying data and definitions before publication.
Freedom of expression is another source of tension. AP reported that Adalah had documented police action against anti-war protests, restrictions involving Palestinian flags and arrests over social media posts. The Israeli government says restrictions on certain speech and protests are based on security concerns. Both the allegations and the government’s stated position are relevant to an accurate account.
The evidence reviewed here supports identifying crime, policing and public services as important themes in the campaign. It does not establish a comprehensive ranking of voter priorities across all Palestinian citizens of Israel. That conclusion would require reliable polling or other systematic evidence about voters’ stated concerns.
Deadlock could leave several routes open
If no bloc reaches 61 seats, political leaders will need to negotiate a government that can obtain parliamentary confidence. The arithmetic alone will not decide which arrangements are politically acceptable.
Israel’s Basic Law: The Government sets out procedures for assigning a lawmaker the task of forming a government. Article 8 provides an initial period of 28 days, with the president able to grant extensions of up to 14 additional days in total. If that attempt fails, Article 9 provides for reassignment to another lawmaker or for the president to inform the Knesset speaker that forming a government appears impossible, subject to the law’s conditions.
A minority government supported by lawmakers outside the formal coalition is one possible political arrangement, but its viability would depend on parliamentary support and the specific circumstances. It should not be assumed that Arab-led parties would provide that support or that any other party would accept it.
If coalition talks fail, the legal process may permit further attempts or other steps toward another election. The exact path depends on the applicable provisions and events after the vote. Until ballots are counted and parties clarify their positions, another election is a possibility, not a prediction.
For now, Arab-led parties appear capable of affecting the coalition arithmetic. Whether they can translate that leverage into policy influence or parliamentary support will depend on the election result, their own demands and whether other leaders maintain their public refusals.
Reporting Credit: Israel’s Central Elections Committee and Supreme Court for election eligibility proceedings; the Knesset for the legal framework governing government formation; and the polling organizations responsible for the individual election surveys cited in this report.
