BANGKOK, Thailand – China’s launch of a ballistic missile into the South Pacific Ocean this week has intensified regional concerns while signaling Beijing’s expanding nuclear deterrence capabilities, with defense analysts saying the rare test was primarily intended to send a strategic message to the United States.
The missile, launched Monday from a nuclear-powered submarine, marked China’s second publicly known ballistic missile test into international waters in the Pacific in two years. Beijing described the launch as part of its annual military exercises and indicated that similar tests could continue in the future.
Although the launch drew criticism from several Pacific nations, experts said its principal purpose was to demonstrate the growing strength of China’s strategic nuclear forces.
“The most important message is the PLA is becoming a powerful military with a very strong strategic nuclear capability,” said Tong Zhao, a senior fellow with the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Demonstrating China’s nuclear deterrent
Defense specialists said the submarine-launched missile highlighted the sea-based component of China’s nuclear triad, which combines land, sea and air-based nuclear delivery systems.
Dominic Meagher, a research fellow at Australia’s Crawford School of Public Policy, said the launch also demonstrated China’s second-strike capability — the ability to retaliate with nuclear weapons even after suffering an initial attack because launch platforms remain dispersed at sea or on land.
K. Tristan Tang, a nonresident fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research, described the launch as part of a broader military strategy rather than a one-time event.
“I would see this as a systematic move, not an isolated event,” Tang said in emailed comments.
The missile test comes as China continues expanding its fleet of nuclear-powered submarines. According to a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, China has built such submarines at a faster pace than the United States over the past five years.
Pacific nations voice concern
The launch also renewed sensitivities across the Pacific, where memories of decades of nuclear weapons testing by the United States, Britain and France remain deeply rooted.
Many Pacific Island nations continue to associate nuclear activity with long-term environmental damage and health consequences, including cancers and birth defects linked to historic weapons testing.
Monday’s missile landed within the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone established under the 1986 Treaty of Rarotonga, which prohibits nuclear weapons throughout much of the region. China ratified the treaty’s protocols in 1987, agreeing not to test or threaten to use nuclear weapons within the zone against participating states.
Meagher said previous international outrage over nuclear testing in the Pacific led to agreements such as the Treaty of Rarotonga and broader efforts to limit nuclear testing.
Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale criticized the launch while speaking to reporters in Honiara.
“China is a good friend of Solomon Islands, but this is not something a friend does. This is not … good in our region,” Wale said.
Meagher noted that although the United States continues conducting missile tests in the Pacific, it avoids the treaty-protected zone.
Questions over notification and transparency
Australia, New Zealand and Japan also expressed concern over the timing of the launch, saying Beijing provided insufficient advance notice.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, speaking during a visit to Honiara on Tuesday, described the missile launch as “a provocative act by China which does destabilize the region.”
He added that the limited warning provided before the test was “of real concern.”
China’s Defense Ministry rejected the criticism, saying relevant countries had been notified in advance and describing the exercise as transparent.
Experts pointed to the Hague Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Proliferation as the closest international standard for launch notifications. The voluntary framework encourages countries to provide at least 24 hours’ notice before ballistic missile launches, although China is not a participant in the agreement.
Uncertainty over missile type
Questions also remain over which missile China launched.
The People’s Liberation Army has released few operational details. Taiwan’s National Security Council secretary-general said Wednesday that the missile was a JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile fired from waters off Guangdong province.
Chinese state media, however, cited military experts who suggested it was likely the newer JL-3 missile, which has a significantly longer range capable of striking targets across much of the Pacific.
Tong Zhao said China’s expanding military capabilities will likely bring greater international scrutiny as Beijing seeks a larger strategic role.
“If China wants to become a major military power, it should be put under the same standards” as other major nuclear powers such as the United States, Britain and France, he said.
This report is based on reporting by The Associated Press.
Article Topics: China | Ballistic Missile | South Pacific | United States | Nuclear Deterrence | Pacific Islands | Regional Security | Military Strategy
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