WASHINGTON, United States — The International Monetary Fund has kept its 2026 global economic growth forecast at 3%, maintaining its outlook despite war-related energy disruptions and continued risks to the global economy.
The IMF said its growth projection remains broadly unchanged as stronger activity in some major economies offsets pressure from higher energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty.
The forecast comes as governments and central banks confront an increasingly difficult economic environment. Energy-market disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East have raised concerns about inflation, while persistent geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on trade and investment.
Global growth remains resilient
The IMF’s latest assessment indicates that the world economy has so far shown greater resilience than many of the immediate risks surrounding the conflict might have suggested.
Growth is being supported by continued economic activity in major markets and strong investment in areas such as artificial intelligence and advanced technology.
The United States remains an important source of global demand. Technology-related investment has also helped support activity across economies connected to global supply chains.
But the IMF has warned that the resilience of growth does not mean the risks have disappeared.
Higher energy prices can increase costs for businesses and households while placing additional pressure on economies that depend heavily on imported fuel.
Energy disruption threatens the outlook
The conflict in the Middle East has become a major source of uncertainty for the global economy.
The IMF has highlighted disruption around the Strait of Hormuz as a particular concern because the waterway is critical to international energy shipments.
A prolonged disruption could push oil and gas prices higher and create broader inflationary pressure. The effects would vary between countries, with energy-importing economies generally facing greater pressure than major energy exporters.
The IMF has therefore cautioned that developments in energy markets could alter the global growth outlook if disruptions persist or intensify.
Inflation remains a concern
The global economy is also dealing with an uneven inflation picture.
Although inflation has declined from the peaks reached in previous years, the IMF has said progress toward price stability has slowed.
Higher energy costs could make that process more difficult. Central banks may face renewed pressure if energy prices feed into transportation, production and consumer prices.
That could complicate monetary policy decisions in economies where officials are balancing inflation risks against the need to sustain economic growth.
Debt limits governments’ room to respond
High public debt adds another vulnerability.
The IMF has warned that governments in many countries have limited fiscal space to respond to another major economic shock. Years of elevated spending and borrowing have left some economies with substantially higher debt burdens.
That could make a prolonged energy crisis more difficult to manage, particularly for countries already facing weak growth or high financing costs.
The Fund has urged governments to strengthen fiscal positions while pursuing reforms that can improve productivity and long-term growth.
Technology investment provides support
One of the more important counterweights to the global risks is the continuing investment boom surrounding artificial intelligence.
The IMF has identified strong technology investment as a source of economic support, particularly in the United States and economies closely integrated into global technology supply chains.
The investment cycle is helping offset some of the weakness created by geopolitical and energy shocks.
The IMF nevertheless cautions that the benefits are not evenly distributed. Economies with limited exposure to technology investment or high dependence on imported energy could remain more vulnerable to external shocks.
Outlook remains exposed to new shocks
Maintaining the 3% forecast does not mean the IMF considers the global outlook secure.
The Fund continues to identify geopolitical tensions, energy disruptions, inflation and high debt as significant downside risks.
A deterioration in the Middle East conflict or a prolonged disruption to energy supplies could weaken growth further and complicate efforts to bring inflation under control.
For now, however, the IMF expects the global economy to continue expanding at roughly 3% in 2026, with stronger investment and resilience in major economies helping offset some of the pressure from the current geopolitical environment.
Reporting Credit: International Monetary Fund — World Economic Outlook assessments and official statements on the 2026 global growth outlook, inflation, energy-market risks, geopolitical developments and global public debt.
