By a senior international affairs editor
The conflict between Israel and Iran has entered a phase where economic disruption is no longer a byproduct but a central battleground, with coordinated strikes on energy infrastructure reverberating far beyond the region. As first reported by The Associated Press, Israeli airstrikes reached Tehran during the Persian New Year, even as Iranian retaliation widened across Gulf energy corridors.
The timing underscores a shift: symbolic dates and civilian rhythms are now intersecting with strategic targeting, amplifying uncertainty across both domestic populations and global markets. The conflict, now in its third week, is testing the resilience of energy supply chains that underpin international economic stability.
Energy Arteries Face Direct Pressure
The latest exchanges have increasingly focused on oil and gas infrastructure, placing the Strait of Hormuz at the center of global concern. Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through this narrow corridor, and Iran’s geographic leverage has translated into sustained pressure on shipping and supply continuity.
Brent crude briefly surged above $119 per barrel, reflecting not just immediate supply fears but a deeper anxiety about prolonged disruption. Natural gas markets followed suit, with European benchmarks doubling within weeks. These shifts suggest the market is pricing in a structural risk rather than a temporary shock.
Israeli leadership has indicated restraint in specific areas, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stating that attacks on the South Pars gas field would be paused following a request from Donald Trump. Yet this selective de-escalation has not translated into broader stability, as Iranian counterstrikes have expanded geographically.
Regional Supply Networks Begin to Fracture
Iranian missile activity has extended across key Gulf producers, targeting facilities in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. The cumulative effect is not isolated damage but systemic strain across interconnected supply networks.
Qatar’s Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas facility, a cornerstone of global LNG exports, has seen output reduced significantly following missile damage. Saudi Arabia’s efforts to reroute oil exports toward the Red Sea—bypassing Hormuz—have also been undermined by drone strikes on alternative infrastructure.
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This pattern reveals a deliberate attempt to constrain redundancy. As fallback routes come under attack, the margin for maintaining stable exports narrows, increasing the likelihood of prolonged volatility.
Maritime Risk Expands Beyond Chokepoints
The threat environment has extended into open المياه, with vessels damaged or set ablaze off the coasts of the UAE and Qatar. These incidents indicate that the conflict’s economic dimension is not confined to fixed infrastructure but includes mobile assets critical to global trade.
Insurance premiums for shipping through the Gulf have risen sharply, and early indicators suggest some operators are reconsidering transit routes altogether. This introduces secondary disruptions, including delays and increased costs, that compound the direct impact of physical damage.
The strategic implication is clear: even limited maritime incidents can cascade into broader supply chain disruptions, amplifying the economic reach of the conflict.
Diplomatic Channels Struggle to Contain Spillover
An emergency session of the United Nations Security Council highlighted growing alarm among Gulf states, which have urged Iran to halt strikes on regional assets. However, diplomatic signaling has so far failed to alter operational behavior on the ground.
The divergence between military escalation and diplomatic restraint efforts suggests diminishing leverage for external actors. While Washington has drawn red lines—particularly regarding attacks on Qatar—its reluctance to deploy ground forces reflects a calibrated approach that may limit immediate deterrence.
Meanwhile, internal security concerns are surfacing within Gulf states. Authorities in the UAE reported dismantling a network allegedly linked to Hezbollah and Iran, pointing to a parallel layer of financial and covert activity accompanying the overt military campaign.
Military Degradation Meets Persistent Capability
Israeli officials maintain that Iran’s conventional military capacity has been significantly degraded, citing damage to air defenses and naval assets. However, the استمرار of missile and drone launches suggests that Tehran retains sufficient asymmetric capability to sustain pressure.
This imbalance—reduced conventional القوة alongside persistent strike capacity—complicates assessments of escalation risk. It allows Iran to continue influencing the conflict’s trajectory without requiring full-spectrum military parity.
The الحرب, which began on February 28, has already resulted in significant casualties across multiple theaters, including Lebanon and Israel. Yet the absence of a decisive shift on the battlefield reinforces the likelihood of a prolonged confrontation.
Strategic Outlook: Economic Front Likely to Define Next Phase
The evolving pattern indicates that the conflict’s next phase will be shaped less by territorial gains and more by economic endurance. Energy infrastructure, shipping lanes, and financial networks are emerging as primary targets, suggesting a war of attrition focused on systemic pressure.
If current trends persist, global markets may face sustained instability, with ripple effects extending into inflation, energy policy, and geopolitical alignment. The interplay between military operations and economic disruption will likely determine not only the conflict’s duration but its broader international consequences.
