Is Europe Ready for Its Own Nuclear Defense Without the U.S.?

Europe Questions NATO’s Nuclear Security as Trump’s Influence Grows

A Changing Security Landscape in Europe

The days of unwavering American commitment to Europe’s defense are fading. As Donald Trump’s influence reshapes U.S. foreign policy, European leaders are left questioning the reliability of NATO’s nuclear umbrella.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance made it clear at the Munich Security Conference in February: Europe must “step up in a big way to provide for its own defense.” In response, European nations have pledged to increase defense spending, particularly in support of Ukraine. However, a more radical idea is gaining traction—the creation of a European nuclear umbrella.

The Push for a European Nuclear Shield

While the U.S. and Russia hold the vast majority of the world’s nuclear arsenal, Europe is not without its own nuclear powers. France possesses approximately 290 nuclear warheads, and the United Kingdom has 225 U.S.-designed Trident missiles. Some European leaders are now considering whether these arsenals could provide a credible nuclear deterrent for the continent.

French President Emmanuel Macron has proposed “opening the strategic debate on the protection by our deterrence of our allies on the European continent.” German Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk have expressed support for discussions on extending French and British nuclear protection. Even historically non-nuclear nations such as Sweden and Denmark have shown interest in Macron’s proposal.

France’s Sovereign Nuclear Stance

Since General Charles de Gaulle established France’s independent nuclear force in the 1950s, Paris has maintained full control over its nuclear arsenal. Macron reaffirmed this stance, stating that the decision to launch a nuclear strike “has always remained and will remain” solely in French hands. However, he has suggested that allies participate in France’s nuclear exercises to better understand its deterrence capabilities.

The United Kingdom, on the other hand, has not publicly offered to extend its nuclear protection. However, its warheads remain integrated into NATO’s command structure, already offering a layer of security to European allies.

A Divided Response on U.S. Commitment

Despite growing discussions on European nuclear deterrence, some leaders still seek reassurances from the United States. Polish President Andrzej Duda recently urged Washington to deploy U.S. nuclear weapons in Poland, mirroring Russia’s move to place nuclear missiles in Belarus in 2023.

Meanwhile, the United States continues to signal its commitment to NATO. In a symbolic move, a nuclear-capable U.S. bomber flew over Stockholm to mark Sweden’s NATO accession anniversary. Additionally, reports suggest the U.S. may redeploy nuclear warheads to its airbase in the U.K. for the first time in over 15 years.

Challenges of a European Nuclear Strategy

Despite France’s and the U.K.’s nuclear capabilities, Europe’s arsenal pales in comparison to Russia’s. Expanding a European nuclear deterrent would take years—if not decades—of investment and development. Moreover, the concept of a “nuclear culture” remains underdeveloped among many European nations, as they have historically relied on the U.S. for nuclear deterrence.

Macron’s proposal aims to address this gap through increased collaboration, including training and strategic exercises. Similarly, the U.K. has been active in strengthening NATO’s “nuclear deterrence IQ,” ensuring allies understand nuclear strategy.

The Role of Conventional Forces in Deterrence

A nuclear deterrent alone is not enough. Analysts stress that any credible strategy against Russia requires a combination of nuclear and conventional forces. While the U.K. has pledged its largest defense investment since the Cold War, questions remain about the reliability of its nuclear program, given past missile test failures.

Other European allies are also ramping up conventional military spending, recognizing that nuclear weapons are only one part of the deterrence equation. The fundamental question remains: under a potential second Trump presidency, can Europe still count on the U.S. for its security?

As the debate over NATO’s nuclear future intensifies, Europe faces a critical crossroads—one that could reshape the continent’s security for generations to come.