NAIROBI, Kenya – Kenyan authorities are preparing for heavy seasonal rainfall as communities affected by previous floods fear losing their homes again. Informal settlements and residential areas near rivers face particular risks.
The Kenya Meteorological Service forecasts above-average rainfall across much of the country during November and the November–December–January period. November is expected to bring significant rainfall during the October–December short-rains season.
Meanwhile, the National Disaster Operations Centre has warned that approximately 1.5 million people could be affected.
For flood survivors, the forecasts bring back memories of destroyed homes, lost belongings and the struggle to rebuild. Some residents have moved to higher ground. However, poverty and the cost of safer housing continue to leave many families exposed.
Flood Survivors Remember Their Losses
Mary Okello, who lived beside the Mathare River in Nairobi, lost her belongings during the 2024 floods.
When the water began rising, she rushed home from her hair salon to evacuate her five children. The family watched as floodwater submerged their homes and swept away their possessions.
Okello has since moved to higher ground in Mathare. However, she remains worried about residents rebuilding their homes along riverbanks.
Other survivors have faced similar losses. George Simeka, a poultry keeper and urban farmer, had to start again after floodwater submerged his home and destroyed neighbouring houses.
Jackline Mueni, another survivor who relocated, said families also lost important documents. These included birth certificates and identification cards, which can be expensive and difficult to replace.
For many households, moving remains difficult even when residents understand the danger. Mueni said the cost of living limits their choices. She now shares a small room with her children.
Their experiences highlight a major challenge for flood-prone communities. Warnings to move do not necessarily give families the money or alternative housing they need to leave dangerous areas.
Weather Forecast Warns of Above-Average Rainfall
The Kenya Meteorological Service’s October 30 forecast predicts above-average rainfall in several counties. These include Nairobi, Kiambu, Mombasa, Kisumu, Nakuru, Garissa and Tana River, as well as parts of western and central Kenya.
The agency also expects warmer-than-average temperatures across the country during the November–January outlook period.
The National Disaster Operations Centre has urged residents in flood-prone areas to move to higher ground. Its estimate of approximately 1.5 million potentially affected people highlights the scale of the preparedness challenge.
However, the risk extends beyond Nairobi. River communities, low-lying areas and locations vulnerable to landslides could face damage to homes, transport networks and livelihoods. Essential services could also suffer disruption.
Authorities Clear Drains and Prepare Emergency Shelters
Nairobi County has mobilised workers to clear drainage systems and remove rubbish from waterways ahead of the heavier rainfall.
County disaster management officer Bramwell Simiyu said sewage and rubbish entering the Mathare River contribute to blockages. These obstructions can worsen flooding by restricting water flow.
The cleanup operations aim to improve drainage and reduce water accumulation in vulnerable areas.
Simiyu said officials had identified approximately 172 venues where residents could receive shelter, food and medicine if evacuations became necessary.
The county also plans to work with telecommunications provider Safaricom to send emergency information and alerts to residents.
In addition, authorities have cleared residential structures along parts of the Nairobi River to maintain a recommended 30-metre buffer between the river and nearby homes.
These measures aim to reduce flood exposure. However, displaced residents’ experiences show why relocation plans must also provide safe and realistic housing alternatives.
Poor Urban Planning Increases Flood Exposure
Nairobi’s vulnerability is also linked to longstanding problems in urban development.
A 2026 analysis by the World Resources Institute identified poor urban planning, wetland loss and weak enforcement of land-use regulations as factors increasing the city’s exposure to flooding.
These conditions can make heavy rainfall more destructive. They reduce the ability of natural areas and drainage systems to absorb and manage excess water.
The Kenya Human Rights Commission has separately warned that the expected rains could increase displacement, destroy livelihoods and make essential services harder to access.
It has called for coordinated preparations that protect vulnerable communities and ensure that people affected by flooding receive appropriate assistance.
Rights Groups Urge Protection for Vulnerable Families
The Kenya National Commission on Human Rights has urged national and county governments to move beyond preparedness plans and ensure that emergency arrangements are ready.
These include evacuation routes, accessible shelters, emergency supplies and response teams.
In an October 20 statement, the commission highlighted the need to protect children, women, older people, persons with disabilities and people with chronic illnesses during extreme weather events.
It also called for safe and dignified shelters, clean water, sanitation and continued access to healthcare. The commission further stressed the need to protect livelihoods and ensure transparent reporting on emergency spending.
These concerns reflect the risks facing families who may have to leave their homes without adequate accommodation, medical care or essential documents.
For residents who have already experienced displacement, the coming rainy season is therefore more than a weather concern. It will test whether public preparations can prevent another cycle of loss.
Kenya’s response includes drainage clearance, emergency shelters and early-warning plans. However, their effectiveness will depend on whether authorities reach the communities most exposed to flooding and give families practical ways to move to safety before conditions worsen.
Primary Sources: Kenya Meteorological Service, “Monthly Forecast for November, Outlook for the Next Three Months (November–December–January) and Review of October 2026,” October 30, 2026: forecasts above-average rainfall across much of Kenya and warmer-than-average temperatures; Kenya National Commission on Human Rights, “Calls for Urgent Preparedness to Protect Lives and Uphold Rights During the El Niño Rains,” October 20, 2026: calls for coordinated evacuation planning, accessible shelters, emergency supplies, protection of vulnerable groups and transparent reporting on preparedness; Kenya Human Rights Commission, “Human Rights-Based Analysis and Response to the El Niño and Related Weather Exposures,” September 29, 2026: outlines anticipated flood-related human-rights risks and recommendations for government response; Government of Kenya, National Climate Outlook Forum and multi-agency preparedness briefings, August–September 2026: documents the national flood-risk assessment and preparedness arrangements. The original National Disaster Operations Centre briefing containing the estimate of 1.5 million potentially affected people was not independently retrieved.
