Trump’s New Tax Bill Could Add $2.4 Trillion to the Deficit and Leave 11 Million More Uninsured, CBO Warns

President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tax proposal is generating major buzz in Washington — and plenty of pushback. According to a fresh analysis from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the bill could blow a $2.4 trillion hole in the federal deficit over the next decade and leave nearly 11 million more Americans without health insurance by 2034.

The Numbers: Big Tax Cuts, Big Costs

The CBO’s report, released Wednesday, estimates that the legislation would slash taxes by $3.75 trillion over 10 years. But that relief comes at a steep price: a projected $2.4 trillion increase in the national deficit, even after nearly $1.3 trillion in federal spending cuts.

It also predicts that 10.9 million additional people would be uninsured by 2034, including 1.4 million undocumented immigrants currently covered under state-funded programs.

And that’s not all. The bill includes deep cuts to social safety net programs. Previous CBO estimates say about 4 million fewer people could receive food stamps each month due to proposed changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).

Inside the “One Big Beautiful Bill”

Nicknamed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — a nod to Trump’s own phrase — the 1,000-page package is the GOP’s top legislative priority. Here’s what’s inside:

• Extended and expanded tax breaks, including a new provision exempting tips from taxation
• $350 billion boost in spending on border security, deportations, and national security
• New work requirements for some adults up to age 65 on Medicaid and SNAP, beginning in 2026
• Repeal of green energy tax breaks introduced under President Joe Biden
• A $4 trillion increase to the U.S. debt ceiling, now sitting at $36 trillion

Republicans argue the tax cuts will fuel economic growth, but the CBO remains skeptical, especially based on past performance.

White House Hits Back at the CBO

In anticipation of the report, the White House launched a preemptive strike against the CBO’s credibility. Press secretary Karoline Leavitt dismissed the office’s projections as historically flawed, while Republican leaders echoed those doubts.

“They’ve always been wrong when it comes to forecasting economic growth,” said House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), even suggesting the CBO might be obsolete. “It’s very valid to raise concerns,” he said.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune also took aim, arguing the CBO had underestimated revenue growth from Trump’s 2017 tax cuts — though the office attributes that miscalculation largely to inflation spikes during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Despite the criticism, the CBO remains a cornerstone of congressional budgeting. Established in 1974 to provide an impartial alternative to the White House’s budget office, it’s staffed by over 275 nonpartisan economists and analysts. Its current director, Phillip Swagel — a Republican appointee — was reappointed in 2023.

Democrats Cry Foul

Democrats are not mincing words. Rep. Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania, the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee, slammed the bill as reckless and hypocritical.

“Republicans cry crocodile tears over the debt when Democrats are in charge — but explode it when they’re in power,” Boyle said. Citing Elon Musk’s own rebuke of the bill, he added, “This bill is a ‘disgusting abomination.’”

A Race Against the Clock

Trump is urging Congress to pass the bill before the Fourth of July — a patriotic deadline for what he hopes will be a signature legislative win. But with critics on both sides raising alarm bells about its potential economic and human impact, the road to passage looks bumpy.

Stay tuned — this debate is far from over.