Grading the Groundhogs: Which One Predicts Spring Best?
In honor of Groundhog Day and just for fun, we put the nation’s most famous groundhogs to the test! Using data from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), we analyzed their predictions over the past 20 years to determine which groundhog is truly the most accurate.
A Tradition Since 1886
Groundhog Day has been celebrated in the U.S. since February 2, 1886, beginning with the now-legendary Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania. Over time, the tradition spread across the country, and today, many states have their own weather-predicting groundhogs. But it’s not just limited to these furry forecasters—some places even rely on a duck, an alligator, and a fish to predict the arrival of spring!
Of course, groundhogs are more about fun than accurate forecasting. If you’re looking for a real long-term weather outlook, check out the National Weather Service’s official forecast.
The Competition: How We Ranked the Groundhogs
We selected 19 groundhogs (and a few unique alternatives) based on two key criteria:
They have been predicting the weather for at least 20 years.
They are still actively making predictions as of February 2, 2024.
To determine accuracy, we compared each groundhog’s predictions with the March temperature averages in the U.S. from 2005 to 2024. Among the contenders is even a tortoise—whose emergence from hibernation signals the arrival of spring—and a prairie dog statue, whose shadow determines the seasonal forecast.
So, without further ado, here are the most accurate Groundhog Day forecasters in the U.S.!
Top 3 Most Accurate Groundhogs
1st Place: Staten Island Chuck (85% Accuracy)
Location: Staten Island Zoo, New York
Also known as Charles G. Hogg, this New York-based groundhog is the most reliable forecaster in the country. But while he’s great at predicting the weather, he’s also known for his unpredictable behavior—like the time he bit the Mayor of New York City!
2nd Place: General Beauregard Lee (80% Accuracy)
Location: Dauset Trails Nature Center, Georgia
Georgia’s official weather prognosticator lives in a custom-built groundhog-sized mansion called Weathering Heights. Rumor has it he’s a big fan of hashbrowns—a true Southern gentleman!
3rd Place: Lander Lil (75% Accuracy)
Location: Lander, Wyoming
Unlike the others, Lander Lil isn’t a real groundhog—she’s a bronze statue of a prairie dog outside the local post office! In 2001, she was stolen, only to be found later at the town dump and returned home. Despite her rocky history, she remains one of the most accurate springtime predictors.
Full Groundhog Accuracy Rankings
| Rank | Name | Type | State | Accuracy (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Staten Island Chuck | Groundhog | NY | 85% |
| 2 | General Beauregard Lee | Groundhog | GA | 80% |
| 3 | Lander Lil | Prairie Dog Statue | WY | 75% |
| 4 | Concord Charlie | Presumed Groundhog | WV | 65% |
| 5 | Gertie the Groundhog | Groundhog | IL | 65% |
| 6 | Jimmy the Groundhog | Groundhog | WI | 60% |
| 7 | Woodstock Willie | Groundhog | IL | 60% |
| 8 | Buckeye Chuck | Groundhog | OH | 55% |
| 9 | French Creek Freddie | Groundhog | WV | 55% |
| 10 | Malverne Mel | Groundhog | NY | 55% |
| 11 | Octoraro Orphie | Groundhog | PA | 52.63% |
| 12 | Dunkirk Dave | Groundhog | NY | 50% |
| 13 | Holtsville Hal | Groundhog | NY | 50% |
| 14 | Poor Richard | Taxidermied Groundhog | PA | 50% |
| 15 | Uni the Groundhog | Taxidermied Groundhog | PA | 47.37% |
| 16 | Schnogadahl Sammi | Taxidermied Groundhog | PA | 38.89% |
| 17 | Punxsutawney Phil | Groundhog | PA | 35% |
| 18 | Woodie the Woodchuck | Groundhog | MI | 35% |
| 19 | Mojave Max | Tortoise | NV | 25% |
Note: Some groundhogs did not make predictions every year over the past 20 years, which may have affected their accuracy scores.
Special Mention: Punxsutawney Phil
Despite ranking only 17th in accuracy at 35%, Punxsutawney Phil remains the most famous groundhog in the U.S. He’s been predicting the arrival of spring since 1887 from his home on Gobbler’s Knob, Pennsylvania.
So, how has he lived for over 135 years? According to legend, his secret is a magical elixir called “Groundhog Nog”, given to him at the Punxsutawney Groundhog Picnic each fall. Whether or not that’s true, his place in Groundhog Day history is undeniable!
Final Thoughts: Who’s the Best Weather Forecaster?
While Staten Island Chuck takes the crown as the most accurate predictor, Groundhog Day is all about tradition, fun, and a little superstition. Whether you trust Chuck, Phil, or even a tortoise, the real winner is the joy of the season!
For more interesting weather data, check out NCEI’s official records here and U.S. temperature trends here.
Happy Groundhog Day!
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