Trump’s Venezuela Oil Push Meets China’s Rapid Shift Away From Crude

President Donald Trump has said the United States intends to control and sell Venezuela’s oil, following a U.S. military operation and renewed pressure on Caracas to realign its energy partnerships. But the strategy faces a central question: who would buy that oil, as Venezuela’s biggest customer, China, is rapidly moving away from crude.

China remains the world’s largest oil importer, but its long-term demand trajectory is increasingly shaped by a fast and deeply entrenched transition to electric vehicles and renewable energy. Energy analysts say that shift limits the impact of U.S. intervention in Venezuela on China’s energy security, while exposing the asymmetry in the relationship between Beijing and Caracas.

China’s oil demand is changing

China has been one of Venezuela’s most important oil buyers for years, absorbing hundreds of thousands of barrels per day despite sanctions and logistical hurdles. Yet analysts say China’s overall oil appetite is no longer growing at the pace seen over the past two decades.

Many forecasts now suggest the country has either reached “peak oil” demand or will do so in the near future, particularly in the transportation sector. The main driver is the scale and speed of China’s electric vehicle adoption, which has few global parallels.

Of the roughly 18.5 million electric vehicles sold worldwide last year, more than 11 million were sold in China, according to data from UK research firm Rho Motion. EVs are no longer a niche or policy experiment in China but a dominant feature of the passenger vehicle market, supported by domestic manufacturing, charging infrastructure and industrial policy.

“This is decisive and structural,” said Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “It’s not something that’s going to reverse.”

By contrast, the United States has experienced a more uneven EV rollout, shaped by shifting incentives and political resistance in parts of the country. Analysts say this divergence underscores a broader split between Washington and Beijing on the pace and direction of the global energy transition.

Venezuela’s oil and limited leverage

According to Janiv Shah, vice president of commodity market research at Norwegian energy consultancy Rystad, China currently imports about 400,000 to 500,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude. While significant for Venezuela, that volume represents only a small share of China’s total oil imports.

“Any U.S. intervention could force this number to drop sharply,” Shah said, describing such a move as a symbolic blow to China in geopolitical terms. But he added that China’s refiners have alternatives, including discounted supplies from other sanctioned producers such as Russia and Iran.

That flexibility means Venezuela’s dependence on China as a buyer is far greater than China’s reliance on Venezuelan oil. “Venezuela is very much reliant on China as a market,” Li said. “There is no question about that.”

The Trump administration has told Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, that Caracas must sever energy and political ties with China, Iran, Russia and Cuba, and partner exclusively with the United States on oil production. U.S. officials have said Washington would ultimately sell Venezuela’s oil on global markets.

China has rejected the premise of that demand. In a statement to CNN, the Chinese foreign ministry described cooperation with Venezuela as “legitimate and in line with the interests of both sides,” adding that the relationship “is unrelated to any third party” and not subject to outside interference.

EVs reshape the oil equation

China’s transition away from oil is most advanced in road transport, traditionally one of the largest sources of fuel demand. Analysts say oil consumption for passenger vehicles has already peaked, even as other sectors, including petrochemicals and aviation, continue to grow.

At the same time, Chinese automakers are pushing aggressively into overseas markets as domestic EV sales mature. BYD, which recently overtook Tesla as the world’s largest EV seller, exported a record number of vehicles last year, according to Rho Motion.

“We’re seeing the China EV story being replicated in other parts of the world,” Li said, noting especially strong uptake in parts of the global south. That trend could further dampen future oil demand growth beyond China’s borders.

For global oil markets, China’s changing consumption profile carries weight. As the largest importer, even modest shifts in demand growth can ripple through prices, trade flows and investment decisions.

Clean energy scale and strategy

China’s EV boom is only one part of a broader push toward energy self-sufficiency and lower-carbon power. According to Global Energy Monitor, the country was building about 510 gigawatts of utility-scale solar and wind capacity last year, on top of roughly 1,400 gigawatts already installed.

In September, Beijing committed to expanding deployed wind and solar capacity to 3,600 gigawatts, roughly six times its 2020 level. China is also continuing to build nuclear power plants and investing heavily in long-term technologies such as fusion energy.

Analysts say this strategy reduces exposure to external supply shocks and geopolitical pressure, including disruptions linked to sanctions or military conflict in oil-producing regions.

From that perspective, U.S. intervention in Venezuela may reinforce China’s emphasis on producing more energy at home and limiting reliance on politically vulnerable imports.

Diverging energy paths

Energy experts argue the situation highlights a widening gap between the United States and China. While China accelerates investment in renewables and electrification, Washington has emphasized expanding oil and gas production domestically and abroad.

“The signal this sends is stark,” Li said. “China is racing toward the energy system of the future, while U.S. actions in Venezuela point to a continued focus on fossil fuels.”

Whether U.S. companies can revive Venezuela’s aging oil infrastructure, and at what cost, remains uncertain. What appears clearer is that the world’s largest potential buyer is steadily preparing for a future in which Venezuelan oil matters less.