The July increase was relatively small, with the job-openings rate holding at 4.4%. The data suggest that employers continue to maintain a significant number of vacancies even as they remain cautious about expanding their workforces.

Hiring slows

The number of people hired during July fell to about 5.05 million, from 5.34 million in June.

The hiring rate declined to 3.2% from 3.4%, with professional and business services accounting for a significant portion of the decline. Hiring in that sector fell by about 188,000 during the month.

The figures point to a labor market where companies continue to recruit but are filling positions more slowly.

Layoffs remain limited

One of the more positive signals was the continued lack of widespread layoffs.

Employers reported about 1.67 million layoffs and discharges in July, down from roughly 1.79 million in June. The layoffs and discharges rate declined to 1.0%.

That remains an important distinction for the economy.

While hiring has weakened, companies have generally avoided large-scale reductions in their existing workforces.

The unemployment rate was 4.1% in July, according to the Labor Department’s separate employment report.

Workers are less willing to quit

The number of workers voluntarily leaving their jobs was also relatively subdued.

About 3.1 million people quit in July, producing a quits rate of 1.9%.

The quits rate is closely watched because workers are generally more willing to leave existing jobs when they believe they can quickly find better opportunities elsewhere.

A subdued quits rate can therefore indicate that workers are becoming more cautious about changing jobs.

Manufacturing provides some strength

The increase in job openings was concentrated partly in manufacturing.

Openings in durable-goods manufacturing increased by 76,000 during July, according to the BLS. Total manufacturing openings rose to about 580,000, compared with 501,000 in June.

Retail trade also continued to have a large number of vacancies, with approximately 731,000 openings in July.

Transportation, warehousing and utilities, however, saw openings decline to roughly 316,000.

The labor market is stable, not booming

The latest figures reinforce a broader pattern that has emerged in 2026.

Employers have continued adding jobs, but at a much slower pace than during stronger periods of the economic expansion.

U.S. employers have added an average of about 61,000 jobs per month so far this year, according to Associated Press analysis of government data. That is modest by historical standards but still better than the extremely weak job growth recorded during 2025.

The combination of low layoffs and slower hiring suggests businesses are taking a cautious approach rather than aggressively expanding or cutting payrolls.

Higher costs remain a concern

The labor market is operating under pressure from higher operating and household costs.

Energy prices have risen sharply amid the continuing conflict involving the United States and Iran, while businesses are also dealing with uncertainty surrounding tariffs and interest rates.

Higher costs can discourage companies from expanding payrolls because maintaining additional workers becomes more expensive.

At the same time, strong demand for workers in selected industries can keep job openings elevated even when overall hiring slows.

The Federal Reserve is watching closely

The JOLTS report will be one of several indicators policymakers consider as the Federal Reserve assesses the economy and inflation.

A labor market that remains resilient can support household income and consumer spending, but persistent strength could also make it more difficult for inflation to cool rapidly.

Conversely, a significant deterioration in hiring would raise concerns about economic growth.

The latest figures therefore provide a mixed signal: job availability remains relatively strong, but the pace at which employers are actually hiring has weakened.

August jobs report comes Friday

The next major test will arrive Friday, when the Labor Department releases its August employment report.

That report will provide more direct information about payroll growth, unemployment and wage trends.

Economists surveyed by FactSet expect employers to have added roughly 65,000 jobs in August, with the unemployment rate potentially rising to 4.2%.

The report could provide a clearer indication of whether July’s subdued hiring reflects temporary caution or the beginning of a broader deterioration.

What Happens Next

Investors and Federal Reserve officials will closely watch Friday’s employment report for evidence of whether the labor market is stabilizing or weakening.

For now, the JOLTS data show an economy where companies continue to advertise millions of positions but are becoming more selective about filling them.

The key question is whether employers can maintain low layoffs and relatively high job openings while navigating higher energy costs, tariffs and economic uncertainty.

Key Facts

• July job openings: 7.27 million
• June revised openings: 7.18 million
• Job openings rate: 4.4%
• July hires: 5.05 million
• Hires rate: 3.2%
• Layoffs/discharges: 1.67 million
• Quits: 3.1 million
• Quits rate: 1.9%
• July unemployment rate: 4.1%
• Next major report: August employment report, Sept. 4
• Status: DEVELOPING — U.S. ECONOMY

Reporting Credit: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and labor-market data; U.S. Department of Labor — employment and unemployment data; Federal Reserve — labor-market conditions and monetary-policy assessments.

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Published Time: 08-15-2025, 16:00

As the Federal Reserve prepares for its annual Jackson Hole conference next week and a crucial September policy meeting, officials remain divided on the most pressing challenge for the U.S. economy: persistent inflation or slowing job growth.

The Fed’s upcoming decisions will be closely watched by investors and economists, as signals from policymakers will influence borrowing costs, financial markets, and the broader economy.

Weaker Job Gains Fuel Debate Over Rate Cuts

Recent labor data have complicated the Fed’s path forward. Weak job growth since April has prompted some officials to support a potential cut in the central bank’s key interest rate as soon as September. However, other members continue to view inflation as a significant concern that may warrant maintaining current rates.

“The slowdown in aggregate demand and soft labor market indicators suggest we should focus on employment risks,” said Michelle Bowman, a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors. Bowman emphasized that underlying inflation is trending toward the Fed’s 2% target, allowing some flexibility to prioritize job creation.

July’s monthly jobs report highlighted the challenge: average monthly job gains for May, June, and July fell to 35,000—a sharp drop from 123,000 a year ago—raising concerns about economic momentum.

Inflation Remains a Core Concern

Despite weaker hiring, many Fed officials caution that inflation is not fully contained. Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, noted that while job growth has slowed, the unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, signaling a resilient labor market.

“The job slowdown may partly reflect reduced immigration rather than a weakening economy,” Goolsbee told reporters. He also pointed to rising prices in services such as dental care and air travel, which are not directly affected by tariffs, as a warning sign that inflation could remain elevated.

Tariffs and the Uncertain Inflation Outlook

Federal Reserve officials continue to debate the impact of tariffs on future inflation. Mary Daly, president of the Fed’s San Francisco branch, suggested that recent trade duties may cause a temporary price increase but are unlikely to trigger long-term inflation pressures.

Conversely, Raphael Bostic, president of the Fed’s Atlanta branch, warned that tariffs could create structural changes if manufacturers shift production from low-cost overseas locations to higher-cost domestic facilities or other countries with higher wages. “This is more than a one-time effect—it fundamentally changes the economy,” Bostic said. He added that with low unemployment, the Fed has the luxury to wait for clearer data before acting.

Market Expectations and Policy Uncertainty

Wall Street investors currently anticipate a rate cut in September, with CME FedWatch futures indicating a 93% probability. This optimism increased after August 1’s jobs report revealed weaker hiring than initially estimated.

However, recent wholesale price data may temper expectations for aggressive cuts. The July wholesale price report showed significant price increases for goods and services before reaching consumers, making a larger half-point reduction in September less likely. Alberto Musalem, president of the Fed’s St. Louis branch, described such a move as “unsupported by the current state of the economy and the outlook.”

Economists also caution that the Fed’s inflation projections may need adjustment. Tim Duy of SGH Macro noted that inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to reach 3.1% by year-end—already near current levels—making a rate cut more challenging if policymakers anticipate continued price pressures.

Jerome Powell’s Speech Will Be Closely Watched

With uncertainty surrounding both jobs and inflation data, all eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole conference. Observers expect Powell’s remarks to provide critical insight into the Fed’s thinking ahead of the September 16-17 meeting.

“If inflation risks materialize or tariffs begin to affect prices more persistently, the Fed may have to reconsider a rate reduction,” Duy said. “There are factors that could push policymakers off the expected path.”

Balancing Dual Mandates

The Federal Reserve is navigating a delicate balance between its dual mandates: promoting maximum employment and stabilizing prices. Some officials prioritize supporting the labor market amid signs of slowing hiring, while others remain cautious to avoid reigniting inflation pressures that could undermine long-term economic stability.

As the Fed approaches its September meeting, investors, policymakers, and businesses will be analyzing each new jobs and inflation report for clues on the central bank’s next move. How the Fed weighs these competing concerns will have significant implications for the U.S. economy and financial markets in the coming months.

Source: AP News – Inflation or jobs: Federal Reserve officials are divided over competing concerns

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Published Time: 08-13-2025, 16:45

President Donald Trump’s choice to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — the federal agency responsible for reporting U.S. jobs and inflation data — has sparked significant criticism from economists across the political spectrum.

The nominee, E.J. Antoni, currently serves as chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation. Critics warn his appointment could risk politicizing an agency long regarded as a neutral source of economic information, even if safeguards limit any direct manipulation of data.

Longstanding Neutrality of the BLS

Historically, the BLS commissioner has been a low-profile figure with deep experience in statistical analysis and public data reporting. The agency’s mission is to produce accurate, impartial economic indicators, including the monthly jobs report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Many former Labor Department officials say it is unlikely Antoni could alter official statistics, especially in the short term. However, they note he could influence how the data is presented to the public, potentially changing the tone and interpretation of official releases.

Nomination Follows Disputed Jobs Report

Trump nominated Antoni shortly after the BLS released an August 1 report showing hiring slowed in July, with earlier figures for May and June revised downward. Without offering evidence, Trump claimed the data was “rigged” for political purposes and dismissed the previous commissioner, Erika McEntarfer — a move that drew criticism from within the agency.

Antoni has been an outspoken critic of federal employment data, frequently appearing on podcasts and television to argue that the monthly jobs reports are unreliable. On August 4, just days before his nomination, he told Fox News Digital that the Labor Department should pause monthly reporting in favor of quarterly updates based on unemployment insurance filings.

Press Secretary Defends Appointment

At a White House briefing, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt called Antoni an “economic expert” who has testified before Congress and said the president trusts him to lead the department.

“I believe that is the plan and that’s the hope,” Leavitt said, when asked whether monthly jobs reports would continue under Antoni’s leadership.

Critics Cite Partisan Commentary and Past Claims

Several economists argue that Antoni’s public record suggests a partisan approach rather than a balanced, data-driven perspective.

Brian Albrecht, chief economist at the International Center for Law and Economics, said:

“There’s nothing in his writing or his résumé to suggest that he’s qualified for the position, besides that he is always manipulating the data to favor Trump in some way.”

Over the past year, Antoni has made several disputed claims, including stating that the U.S. economy had been in recession since 2022 and predicting inflation could rise to 15%. He has also called for firing the entire Federal Reserve board and suggested ending Social Security benefits for future contributors — a position critics say would affect programs tied to CPI adjustments, which the BLS manages.

Flaws in Jobs Data and Modernization Efforts

While many economists share concerns that the government’s jobs data faces challenges, such as declining survey response rates, they say the solution lies in modernizing methods rather than halting reports.

Katharine Abraham, former BLS commissioner under President Bill Clinton, said improvements could include using payroll processor data and combining it with targeted surveys. However, she noted such updates require adequate funding, which has been threatened by budget cut proposals.

“There’s an inconsistency between saying you want higher response rates and you want to spend less money,” Abraham said.

Limits on Political Influence

Former BLS Commissioner William Beach, who served under both Trump and Biden, emphasized that the agency’s procedures make it difficult for any commissioner to manipulate data.

“The commissioner does not affect the numbers. They don’t collect the data. They don’t massage the data. They don’t organize it,” Beach explained, noting that even he did not see final figures until two days before publication.

Beach said the possibility of altering the data was “close to zero.” Still, commissioners can influence how results are framed in public releases, potentially shaping the narrative without changing the numbers themselves.

Political Outlook for Confirmation

Antoni’s nomination is expected to face resistance in the Senate, particularly from Democrats. Senator Patty Murray of Washington called him “an unqualified right-wing extremist” and urged the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee to hold a confirmation hearing.

It took six months for McEntarfer’s nomination to be approved in 2023, and observers expect Antoni’s process to be equally contentious. While Democratic opposition is strong, it remains unclear if it will be enough to block his confirmation.

Broader Stakes

The controversy over Antoni’s nomination reflects wider political tensions over the credibility of economic data. The BLS plays a central role in informing monetary policy, financial markets, and government programs, making its independence vital to public trust.

The Senate’s decision on Antoni will signal how much influence partisanship will have over an agency historically shielded from political disputes. Economists warn that even perceived bias could undermine confidence in key indicators used to guide investments, wage negotiations, and policy decisions.

Source: AP News – Trump’s nominee to oversee jobs, inflation data faces shower of criticism

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