Despite reaching a temporary trade truce with the United States, China is showing no signs of easing its grip on rare earth exports — a critical sector that Beijing continues to use as strategic leverage in ongoing geopolitical tensions.

As part of the 90-day agreement recently struck in Geneva, China pledged to suspend certain “non-tariff” countermeasures it had implemented since April 2. However, rare earth controls, imposed just two days later, remain untouched — leaving U.S. businesses in limbo.

What’s at Stake?

Rare earth elements like dysprosium and terbium are essential components in everything from smartphones and electric vehicles to advanced U.S. military systems like the F-35 jet and missile guidance platforms. China dominates the global supply, producing more than 60% of the world’s mined rare earths — and an even greater share of processed materials.

These minerals are not outright banned from export, but since April, Chinese authorities have required government-issued licenses for every single shipment. The bureaucratic bottleneck has caused weeks-long delays for industries that rely on a steady supply of rare earths — from tech manufacturers to defense contractors.

Conflicting Messages

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Fox News that China had agreed to remove its rare earth countermeasures as part of the Geneva truce. “If they don’t do those things, we’re going to be back in a different situation,” he said.

But on the ground, industry insiders say the reality looks very different.

“There’s no real evidence China is pulling back,” said Jon Hykawy, president of industry advisory firm Stormcrow Capital. “These controls are meant to safeguard Chinese interests, especially in critical sectors.”

Gracelin Baskaran of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) echoed that view, calling China’s export licensing regime “here to stay” — possibly for the long term.

New Licenses, Not Looser Controls

After weeks of regulatory limbo, some Chinese companies have begun receiving export licenses under a “one batch, one license” system. This means a new permit is required for every shipment — no blanket approvals, no shortcuts.

Two Chinese producers confirmed they recently secured export permits for rare earth magnets used in high-performance applications like automotive and military equipment. One firm mentioned licenses had been granted for exports to Southeast Asia and Europe — including German automaker Volkswagen.

Still, insiders say there’s been no indication of an easing policy. Instead, China has doubled down on enforcement. On May 12 — the day the tariff cuts were announced — authorities launched a crackdown on mineral smuggling and held meetings with provincial regulators to tighten oversight across the supply chain.

U.S. Defense Firms in the Crosshairs?

Although China removed 28 U.S. companies from its export control blacklist — including aerospace and defense firms — it remains unclear whether Beijing will actually approve rare earth shipments destined for military use.

Exporters are now required to submit detailed information about end users, which may present hurdles for U.S. defense contractors bound by Pentagon confidentiality.

“China can easily delay or reject export licenses for national security reasons,” said Thomas Kruemmer of Ginger International Trade and Investment. “This gives Beijing control — and insight — into who’s getting what and for what purpose.”

James Kennedy, president of Three Consulting, said the licensing system effectively gives China “a looking glass” into U.S. industrial and military supply chains.

“You can still get the material,” he said, “but you’ll have to tell China exactly who it’s for — and that gives them a strategic advantage.”

Rare Earths as a Strategic Weapon

China’s dominance in rare earths — and its history of using that power in political disputes — is no secret. In 2010, Beijing halted shipments to Japan during a territorial spat. Last year, it banned exports of critical extraction technologies and added other key minerals like gallium and germanium to its restricted list.

Experts say the export controls are just another tool in China’s geopolitical playbook.

“Rare earths, cobalt, gallium — these are China’s strategic weapons,” Kennedy noted. “The uncertainty they create is just as powerful as an outright ban.”

And with Germany recently receiving some of the first export licenses for rare earth magnets, analysts say China may be using its licensing power to signal diplomatic preferences.

“By granting Volkswagen a license, China is sending a clear message,” said Baskaran of CSIS. “It’s reinforcing ties with Germany while keeping pressure on the U.S. intact.”

Bottom Line

Despite talk of cooperation, China is playing a long game when it comes to rare earths. The export controls may not be a full blockade — but they give Beijing immense power to regulate access, reward allies, and punish rivals.

As global supply chains grow more vulnerable, one thing is clear: China isn’t letting go of its rare earth grip anytime soon.

Source: CNN – China isn’t getting rid of its controls over rare earths, despite trade truce with US

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This week, U.S. President Donald Trump’s top trade officials will meet with their Chinese counterparts in Geneva to discuss the future of the ongoing trade war between the two largest economies in the world. The stakes couldn’t be higher: the global economy’s future hinges on the success of these discussions.

A Temporary De-Escalation, Not a Trade Deal

While the trade talks mark the first in-person meeting between U.S. and Chinese officials since the tariff battle intensified in March, expectations for an immediate breakthrough are low. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that these talks are not about finalizing a trade deal, but rather about de-escalating the situation before more damage is done.

Trade between the two countries has already taken a hit, with tariffs reaching record levels. The U.S. has imposed a 145% tariff on many Chinese imports, while China has retaliated with a 125% tariff on American goods. As the first wave of tariff-free shipments is unloaded, businesses now face a tough decision: absorb the new costs or stop selling altogether. Consumers will soon feel the impact, with prices expected to rise and potential shortages on the horizon.

Economic Pain on Both Sides

The tariffs are taking a toll on both economies. In the U.S., the first quarter saw a rare contraction, marking its first decline in three years. Businesses scrambled to stockpile goods ahead of the tariffs, contributing to the slowdown. Meanwhile, China’s factory activity shrank sharply in April, with its government likely to introduce additional stimulus measures to combat the downturn.

Though the U.S.-China trade conflict is the most aggressive, Trump has extended tariffs to most other countries as well, including a 10% tariff on nearly all imports and 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and goods from Mexico and Canada. This broad trade disruption has put the global economy on edge, with economists from the IMF, OECD, and World Bank warning of serious consequences, including slower growth and higher inflation worldwide. The U.S. itself is expected to suffer significant economic setbacks, with some analysts predicting a recession.

Signs of Thawing Tensions

Despite the tensions, both sides are acknowledging the unsustainable nature of the current situation. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Bessent are set to meet with Chinese officials in Switzerland this week, marking a significant step toward de-escalation. Bessent, however, managed expectations by emphasizing that this is only the first phase of the process.

“My sense is that this will be about de-escalation, not about the big trade deal,” Bessent told Fox News. “We’ve got to de-escalate before we can move forward.”

In recent weeks, both countries have softened their rhetoric. President Trump hinted that he might lower tariffs on China “at some point,” while China has signaled a willingness to consider U.S. proposals to begin trade talks.

China’s Economic Strain

China, for its part, has been standing firm in public, but the economic strain is beginning to show. To boost liquidity and stimulate growth, the People’s Bank of China recently cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks and reduced interest rates on key financial instruments. Wall Street responded positively to these moves, with markets seeing a boost in the days leading up to the talks.

Trade Between the Two Countries Near a Standstill

The economic toll of the trade war is becoming increasingly apparent. April saw a dramatic 60% drop in cargo shipments from China to the U.S., according to logistics firm Flexport. JPMorgan estimates that Chinese imports into the U.S. could drop as much as 80% in the second half of the year.

As Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen pointed out, “It’s only a matter of time before they sell through existing inventory, and then you’ll see shortages. And that’s when you see price hikes.”

At the Port of Los Angeles, expected shipments have already been canceled, with 20% fewer vessels arriving this month compared to last year. “This week, we’re down about 35% compared to the same time last year,” said Gene Seroka, the port’s executive director.

No Deal Yet, But Hope for Progress

Despite the growing economic crisis, both nations remain far from a comprehensive deal. Each side is holding out for major concessions from the other, and the road to normalizing trade relations with China is expected to take years, according to Bessent.

But even without a formal agreement, the face-to-face talks in Switzerland offer a glimmer of hope. With both countries suffering significant self-inflicted damage, the need for de-escalation is becoming undeniable.

Trump himself acknowledged the need for change: “At some point, I’m going to lower [the tariffs] because otherwise you could never do business with them,” he said. “They want to do business very much… their economy is collapsing.”

As the global economy teeters, the outcome of this week’s talks will set the stage for the next chapter in the U.S.-China trade saga—and could be the first step toward a much-needed resolution.

source: CNN – Trump’s team is finally meeting with China. The future of the global economy is riding on its success

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Here’s how natural disasters impact our energy security, what we can do about it and what hurdles we must first overcome.

The Problem of Worsening Natural Disasters

In October 2024, Hurricane Milton barreled toward Florida as a Category 5 storm. While it was demoted to a Category 3 storm upon landfall, it left nearly half a million Floridians without power for days afterward.

Milton followed close on the heels of Hurricane Helene. Helene walloped the region before heading north, drowning presumed climate havens like Asheville while closing the historic Blue Ridge Parkway during the height of the October leaf-peeping season. Meanwhile, the West bakes under temperatures well above average.

Scientists expect such severe events to become the norm, not the exception. Even if all nations stopped producing emissions now, the atmosphere would take a while to return to normal. Meanwhile, world leaders have doubled down on fossil fuel production, and several multinational corporations have abandoned previous climate change goals.

We can expect worsening disasters for the foreseeable future.

Such events can knock out large portions of the grid. A lack of power frustrates rescue and relief efforts and contributes to the death toll. Patients in hospitals and others who rely on a steady power source for assisted devices or keeping medications cold are often the first to suffer, but everyone feels the impact.

Increasing Availability 

While fossil fuel production will continue, transitioning to clean, renewable energy — and doing so in a way that ensures equitable distribution — can help maintain energy security amid worsening disasters.

1. Solar-Powered Grid Diversification
In a typical grid, power flows one way — from the refinery to the generating station to individual homes and businesses. Shutdowns higher in the chain disrupt electricity to millions.

Today, solar panels work effectively even in cloudy regions, thanks to advances like tracking systems that rotate them to follow the sun. Inverter technology prevents power from diverse solar generation stations from traveling back over wires and damaging them, enabling grid diversification.

Erecting multiple interconnected solar farms — using private rooftops and land rentals, business parking lots or community gardens in new housing developments — provides local regions with an independent and clean power source. The larger grid then stores the excess power generated to even out the distribution. When storms strike, each solar farm operates independently to prevent further system damage until professionals perform repairs. Some lights stay on, thanks to multiple generating stations.

Authorities must also hammer out economic questions about this new grid design. For example, solar lowers energy costs for wealthy residents who can afford private panels but increases prices for those reliant on the grid. How to compensate people for using private land for energy production while keeping prices low and equitable across the board remains in contention.

2. Tapping Into Geothermal

Geothermal energy is a relatively untapped source in the United States, although Iceland derives a large percentage of its energy needs from it. Many scientists believe we are perched on an inexhaustible supply of energy — if only we invest the necessary resources to learn how to capture it.

Improving Resilience

Switching to clean, renewable energy and redesigning the grid will take time. Building the necessary infrastructure is only one part of the race — the other is changing the minds of local authorities to allow such projects to go forward.

In the meantime, building more resilient homes increases their resistance to natural disasters while improving energy efficiency and reducing fossil fuel use. Many builders, such as ForeverHome, have begun making their designs more resistant to storm surges and high winds for those living in coastal regions.

Rebuilding right after a disaster matters. Preexisting storm damage can create weak points in buildings that make them susceptible to mold or energy leaks that affect health. Including underlayments such as 30-pound felt to protect structures against future damage can prevent the roof from falling. Pairing them with green roofs also prevents some of the storm runoff that floods sewer systems and spreads health risks.

Additionally, economic factors raise questions. Already, insurers have pulled out of several markets and are loath to issue new homeowner’s policies. Who pays for these needed repairs after more severe disasters remains in question.

Natural Disasters and Energy Security

Climate change has arrived, and stronger disasters are the norm. Bracing the nation’s grid for energy security amid the crisis requires examining all factors and moving forward mindfully.

Source

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