Who Will Be the Next Pope? Exploring the Papabile Candidates

The search for the next pope is always a moment of intrigue, marked by speculation and careful political maneuvering within the Vatican. The old adage, “He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal,” reminds us that papal elections are unpredictable—frontrunners can quickly fall out of favor. Case in point: during the 2013 conclave, Cardinal Angelo Scola of Milan was considered the top contender. Yet, when white smoke signaled the election of Pope Francis, the Italian church had already celebrated prematurely.

This upcoming conclave will shape the direction of the Catholic Church for decades. Pope Francis’ reforms have not only transformed the church’s priorities but also its voting body. By expanding the College of Cardinals to include bishops from places like Tonga, Haiti, and Papua New Guinea, Francis has made the conclave more representative of the global church, introducing greater diversity and unpredictability into the process.

With the next pope poised to inherit these reforms, electors must weigh the church’s future priorities—should the new pope continue Francis’ legacy of change, or chart a new course? Here are some of the leading papabile (or “pope-able”) candidates who could be in the running.

1. Cardinal Pietro Parolin

Holy See Secretary of State

A seasoned diplomat and the Vatican’s second-in-command, Cardinal Parolin brings a wealth of global experience. His work on behalf of the Holy See includes brokering peace in Colombia and reshaping Vatican-China relations. Although generally conservative, Parolin’s diplomatic finesse could appeal to electors seeking a steady hand on the wheel. His more cautious stance, however, might clash with more progressive factions within the Church.

2. Cardinal Matteo Zuppi

Archbishop of Bologna

Known for his diplomatic skills and deep ties to humanitarian causes, Cardinal Zuppi was entrusted by Pope Francis to lead peace efforts in Ukraine. A member of the Sant’Egidio community, which helped mediate the Mozambique civil war, Zuppi’s ability to build bridges and engage with marginalized communities, including LGBTQ+ Catholics, makes him a standout candidate for a compassionate, peace-driven papacy.

3. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle

Head of Vatican’s Evangelization Office

Dubbed the “Asian Francis,” Cardinal Tagle’s humility and charisma resonate with Francis’ pastoral priorities. The Filipino cardinal’s leadership experience with the Church’s charitable arm and his focus on global evangelization would make him a strong contender, especially considering his appeal to growing Catholic populations in Asia. However, some question his administrative abilities, particularly after stepping down from the Caritas leadership following Vatican reforms.

4. Cardinal Pablo Virgilio Siongco David

Bishop of Kalookan, Philippines

A fierce advocate for justice, Cardinal David has earned respect for his stand against the drug war killings under former President Duterte. As a leader who champions the inclusive, “field hospital” vision of the Church, David could be a powerful voice for reform. His candidacy reflects the rising influence of Southeast Asia within the Church, potentially making him the first Filipino pope.

5. Cardinal Gérald Cyprien Lacroix

Archbishop of Quebec

Cardinal Lacroix is recognized for his pastoral sensitivity and missionary zeal. His work in Canada, where secularization is prominent, along with his experience on the Vatican’s Council of Cardinals, positions him as a strong contender. Although an allegation of sexual abuse from his past was cleared in a Vatican investigation, it remains a sensitive topic that could affect his candidacy.

6. Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu

Archbishop of Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo

A staunch defender of democracy and human rights, Cardinal Ambongo leads a massive congregation in Africa. His moral authority and commitment to social justice could appeal to a broad range of electors, especially those seeking a pope who will champion the Church’s growing influence on the African continent. However, his strong opposition to same-sex marriage could be a divisive issue.

7. Cardinal Joseph Tobin

Archbishop of Newark, USA

A warm, approachable figure, Cardinal Tobin is a notable candidate from the U.S. His work in Rome and with Catholic communities in the U.S. has earned him a reputation for advocating for migrants and the poor. His international experience, fluency in several languages, and staunch support for refugees make him a potential choice for those looking for a globally aware and compassionate leader.

8. Cardinal Robert Prevost

Prefect of the Vatican Dicastery for Bishops

An experienced Vatican insider, Cardinal Prevost has spent years assessing candidates for bishop appointments, giving him unique insight into the global church. His time working in Peru also reflects his deep connection to the church in Latin America. While some may shy away from a U.S.-born pope, Prevost’s expertise in church governance could make him an attractive choice.

9. Cardinal Tarcisius Isao Kikuchi

Archbishop of Tokyo

A seasoned missionary with deep experience in Africa, Cardinal Kikuchi is known for his strong anti-nuclear stance and leadership in the church’s charitable activities. His international background and focus on global issues make him a compelling candidate for those seeking continuity with Pope Francis’ priorities, particularly in Asia.

10. Cardinal Michael Czerny

Head of the Vatican’s Social Justice Office

A passionate advocate for migrants and social justice, Cardinal Czerny’s background in human rights and his Jesuit commitment to social development align him with Pope Francis’ core values. His strong organizational skills and global experience would make him an effective pope, although the question of another Jesuit pope could be a factor for some electors.

11. Cardinal Cristóbal López Romero

Archbishop of Rabat, Morocco

Cardinal López Romero is known for his work in interfaith dialogue and his advocacy for the Church’s missionary outreach, particularly in Muslim-majority countries. His leadership in Morocco and his focus on global dialogue reflect a modern Church with a deep sense of mission.

12. Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich

Archbishop of Luxembourg

Cardinal Hollerich is an advocate for Church reform and has coordinated key synods on the subject. His fluency in several languages, including Japanese, and his experience in Japan would resonate with electors seeking a candidate with a broad understanding of the global Church’s needs.

13. Cardinal Péter Erdő

Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest

A respected church lawyer and conservative voice, Cardinal Erdő would appeal to those seeking a more traditional direction for the Church. His controversial stance on migration and social issues, however, could be a sticking point for electors more aligned with Francis’ progressive vision.

Other Notable Candidates:

• Cardinal Mario Grech (68, Malta) – Known for his leadership of the Synod Office.
• Cardinal Stephen Chow (65, Hong Kong) – A diplomatic leader with strong pastoral skills.
• Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa (60, Jerusalem) – Impressive leadership during the Israel-Hamas conflict.
• Cardinal Jaime Spengler (64, Brazil) – A rising star with significant influence in Latin America.

As the conclave approaches, it’s clear that the next pope will likely come from outside the traditional powerhouses of Europe, with increasing interest in candidates from Asia and Africa. With many potential contenders, the choice of the next pope will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of the Catholic Church.