Syria’s transitional president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, is set to meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara on Tuesday to discuss a potential joint defense pact, sources close to the matter said. The proposed agreement could include the establishment of Turkish airbases in central Syria and the training of Syria’s new army, as the country rebuilds in the aftermath of Bashar al-Assad’s ouster.

Key Points from the Meeting

Sources familiar with the discussions—ranging from a Syrian security official to regional intelligence sources—confirmed that this is the first time details of a strategic defense arrangement between Syria’s new leadership and Turkey have been made public. The pact is expected to see Turkey play a significant role in Syria’s military rebuilding, including:

• New Turkish Airbases: The possibility of Turkey establishing airbases in Syria’s central desert region, the Badiyah, and using Syrian airspace for military operations.
• Troop Training: Turkey potentially taking the lead in training the newly restructured Syrian army, which is working to integrate various former rebel factions into a unified military command.

While the defense pact is not expected to be finalized during Tuesday’s talks, the meeting will set the groundwork for future military cooperation.

Turkey’s Growing Role in Syria

Turkey, a NATO member, has long supported Syria’s opposition against the Assad regime. With Assad’s forces ousted following a swift offensive led by Sharaa’s forces, Turkey is positioning itself to fill the vacuum left by Iran, Assad’s primary regional backer. This shift could escalate tensions in the region, especially with Gulf Arab states and Israel, both of which are closely watching Turkey’s expanding influence in Syria.

Turkish Bases and Air Defense

The sources revealed that Turkey is looking to establish military bases in Syria, specifically in the Palmyra military airport and the T4 base in the Homs province. These bases would not only strengthen Turkey’s military presence but could also be used to protect Syrian airspace from future attacks.

Turkey’s role could include air defense, with officials indicating that the new bases may help bolster Syria’s defense against external threats. These developments come at a time when Russia, another key player in Syria, is also negotiating with the new Syrian administration about the future of its own military bases in the country, particularly in Tartous and Latakia.

Turkey’s Message to Kurdish Fighters

One of the driving factors behind Turkey’s interest in setting up bases in central Syria is to send a strong message to Kurdish forces in the northeast. Ankara considers the People’s Protection Units (YPG), a Kurdish militia, to be an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has been involved in an insurgency against Turkey since 1984. Turkey views the PKK as a terrorist group and has threatened military action against the YPG, although talks are currently underway to address the issue of Kurdish forces in Syria.

Joint Fight Against Terrorism

In addition to discussing military bases and troop training, Turkish and Syrian military delegations have recently exchanged views on defense and security issues, particularly in the fight against terrorist organizations that threaten both nations. A Turkish defense ministry official emphasized that future meetings would focus on joint strategies for addressing these security concerns.

Building Regional Partnerships

Syria’s new leaders, including Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra, have expressed a desire to build strong regional partnerships to bolster the country’s military capabilities. While the specifics of a partnership with Turkey were not previously mentioned, the Syrian government is open to international cooperation in areas like arming, training, and air defense.

In December, Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler confirmed that Turkey is “ready to provide the necessary support” if the new Syrian administration requests assistance, signaling a potential reevaluation of Turkey’s military presence in Syria in the near future.

Conclusion

The upcoming meeting between Sharaa and Erdogan marks a pivotal moment in Syria’s post-Assad era, as Turkey positions itself as a key military partner in the country’s rebuilding process. With the prospect of Turkish airbases and military training for Syria’s new army, the strategic relationship between the two nations could have wide-reaching implications for the region’s balance of power.

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Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has denied claims that his departure from Syria was planned, according to a statement posted Monday on the Syrian Presidency’s Telegram account. This marks the first time Assad has publicly addressed the events leading to his ousting earlier this month.

In the statement, purportedly from Assad, he insisted that he stayed in Damascus until the final hours before being evacuated to Russia.

Assad: “Departure Was Unplanned”

“My departure from Syria was neither planned nor did it occur during the final hours of the battles, as some have claimed. On the contrary, I remained in Damascus, carrying out my duties until the early hours of Sunday, December 8, 2024,” the statement read.

Assad claimed he moved to Russia’s airbase in Hmeimim on the morning of December 8 at Moscow’s request. Later that day, Russian officials evacuated him and his family when the base came under attack.

Collapse of Damascus Triggered Evacuation

The statement further alleged that the fall of Damascus and the collapse of Syria’s state institutions left no alternative but to evacuate.
“With no viable means of leaving the base, Moscow requested the base’s command arrange an immediate evacuation to Russia on the evening of December 8. This took place a day after Damascus fell, following the collapse of the final military positions and the paralysis of all remaining state institutions,” Assad explained.

“No Plans to Step Down”

Assad denied considering resignation or seeking asylum before his evacuation.
“At no point during these events did I consider stepping down or seeking refuge, nor was such a proposal made by any individual or party. The only course of action was to continue fighting against the terrorist onslaught,” he stated.

Assad justified his departure by claiming his position became meaningless after Syria’s takeover by what he described as “terrorists.”
“When the state falls into the hands of terrorism and the ability to make a meaningful contribution is lost, any position becomes void of purpose, rendering its occupation meaningless.”

Asylum in Russia

Assad and his family were granted asylum in Russia for “humanitarian reasons,” according to Russian officials. They arrived in Moscow late on December 8, following their evacuation from the Hmeimim airbase.

While it remains unclear if Assad controls the Telegram account from which the statement was posted, the message provides insight into his perspective on the dramatic fall of his regime and his subsequent relocation to Russia.

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The Assad regime, long seen as a resilient force in the Middle East, collapsed with shocking speed, leaving Syria at a pivotal turning point. In less than two weeks, the regime, hollowed out by decades of corruption and decay, fell apart, taking many observers by surprise. This dramatic downfall marks the end of an era and ushers in a new chapter of uncertainty and potential transformation.

From Stability to Collapse

The Assad regime’s origins trace back to Hafez al-Assad, who seized power in a volatile Syria and built a ruthless system to ensure control. When power passed to his son Bashar in 2000, many Syrians hoped for reform. By 2011, amid the Arab Spring, the regime faced growing demands for change. Bashar initially retained some legitimacy due to his youth, promises of reform, and support for Palestinian and Lebanese causes. However, his decision to brutally suppress peaceful protests shattered any remaining trust.

The regime’s strategy mirrored that of a mafia-like structure, rewarding loyalty while crushing dissent. This system of fear disguised its deep weaknesses, which ultimately contributed to its rapid downfall.

International Missteps and Regional Dynamics

In recent years, the Assad regime became heavily dependent on support from Russia and Iran. Efforts by the United States, Israel, and the UAE to weaken its ties to Tehran only partially succeeded. While Israel’s strikes disrupted Iran’s supply chains to Hezbollah, and U.S. sanctions aimed to isolate Assad, these measures did not anticipate the regime’s imminent collapse.

Both Israeli and U.S. leaders have claimed partial credit for Assad’s downfall. Yet, it appears that the unraveling was more accidental than strategic. The collapse has shaken the region, dismantling Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance” and leaving Hezbollah weakened.

The Role of the Rebels

The decisive blow came from a well-organized rebel force, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which positioned itself as a nationalist and Islamist movement rather than a jihadist group. Faced with a loss of morale, Syrian army conscripts refused to fight, signaling the regime’s loss of control. HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Joulani has since emerged as a de facto leader, calling for national reconciliation and coexistence among Syria’s diverse communities.

A Fragile Future

Despite Joulani’s calls for unity, Syria remains fragmented. Dozens of armed groups operate independently, tribal militias in the south assert their autonomy, and remnants of the Islamic State persist in the eastern deserts. The absence of a unified leadership risks plunging the country into further chaos, echoing the violent aftermaths of regime changes in Libya and Iraq.

The need for a stable and inclusive governance structure is critical. A reformed Syrian Arab Army could play a stabilizing role, avoiding the mistakes made in post-invasion Iraq, where disbanding the military led to widespread instability.

Regional and Global Implications

The fall of the Assad regime reverberates across the region. Turkey’s President Erdogan, having supported rebel-held Idlib, now sees an opportunity to expand influence. Israel, concerned about an Islamist-led Syria, continues to target military installations. Meanwhile, Iran faces the collapse of its key regional ally, potentially prompting it to reassess its strategies, including the possibility of pursuing nuclear capabilities.

The Path Ahead for Syrians

Syria’s future hinges on whether its people can take charge of their destiny. Decades of authoritarian rule and external manipulation have robbed Syrians of agency. The best-case scenario involves fostering national reconciliation, avoiding revenge-fueled chaos, and rebuilding a country grounded in justice and inclusion.

The fall of Assad is both a moment of liberation and a daunting challenge. Whether Syria can seize this opportunity to rebuild or succumbs to further turmoil remains uncertain. One thing is clear: the decisions made in the coming months will shape the nation’s fate for generations to come.

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