A Surge in Violence: The Bloodiest Conflict in Years

Syria has witnessed its deadliest outbreak of violence in years, following a military operation against remnants of the former Assad regime. Since Thursday, clashes between government forces and Assad loyalists have resulted in 779 deaths, including civilians, state security forces, and armed fighters.

What started as a confrontation between armed groups quickly escalated into communal killings, with verified footage showing government loyalists executing individuals and referring to “purifying” the country.

Why Has Sectarian Violence Erupted Again?

The conflict reignited in the coastal Latakia province, the heartland of former leader Bashar al-Assad, where his Alawite sect had long held power. The Alawites, a minority Shiite sect in predominantly Sunni Syria, were closely associated with Assad’s regime. His ouster in December by Sunni Islamist militants seeking to reshape Syria’s political order created deep sectarian tensions.

Under Assad, many opponents viewed the Alawites as complicit in the brutalities of his rule. However, the new interim government, led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, had pledged inclusivity and equal representation across Syria’s diverse ethnic and religious communities. The violence over the past few days, however, underscores Syria’s fragile transition.

On Thursday, Syria’s state-run SANA news agency reported that Assad loyalists attacked government checkpoints, triggering deadly clashes. Over the weekend, these hostilities spiraled into communal killings, with eyewitnesses and video evidence confirming field executions.

Who Is Responsible for the Killings?

The Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR) provided a breakdown of the casualties:

• Pro-Assad groups were responsible for 383 deaths, including 172 state security forces and 211 civilians.
• Government forces and their allies killed 396 people, including civilians and disarmed militants.

How Has the New Syrian Government Responded?

Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa blamed the violence on Assad’s remaining forces, accusing them of inciting sectarian conflict. On Sunday, he vowed accountability for all involved in the bloodshed and announced the creation of an independent investigation committee, tasked with:

• Identifying those responsible for civilian deaths.
• Investigating attacks on public institutions and security forces.
• Recommending judicial action against perpetrators.

Sharaa reiterated that “Syria is a state of law”, emphasizing that the government “will rectify the situation as much as we can.”

How Has the World Reacted?

The violence threatens to derail Sharaa’s efforts to rebuild diplomatic ties and ease sanctions imposed during Assad’s rule. Global reactions have been swift:

• United States: Condemned “radical Islamist terrorists” responsible for massacres in western Syria. Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged accountability for perpetrators.
• European Union: Expressed concern over civilian casualties and called for the protection of civilians under international law.
• Turkey & Iran: Exchanged accusations over destabilizing actions in Syria, fueling diplomatic tensions.
• Russia: Reports indicate Syrians seeking protection at the Russian-run Khmeimim Air Base in Latakia.

Are Foreign Powers Involved?

Syria has long been a battleground for competing regional and global powers, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, the U.S., Russia, and Turkey. In past conflicts, foreign fighters have played key roles, and recent social media footage suggests some may still be active.

As tensions flared, Turkey and Iran exchanged warnings over interference in Syria. Meanwhile, satellite images from March 10 show crowds seeking refuge at a Russian military base in Latakia.

What’s Next for Syria?

Experts warn that Syria’s sectarian divisions, fueled by over 13 years of conflict, will not disappear overnight. Deep-rooted grievances and calls for revenge pose ongoing risks to stability.

Key factors that will shape Syria’s future include:

• Government inclusivity: Avoiding marginalization of the Alawite community.
• Justice & accountability: Ensuring perpetrators face consequences.
• International engagement: Rebuilding trust with Western and regional powers.

The European Union remains open to working with Syria’s interim government if stability is restored. Meanwhile, Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon recently called for lifting sanctions to aid Syria’s recovery.

Final Thoughts

Syria’s transition remains fragile, and the latest violence highlights the challenges ahead. Without addressing underlying tensions and ensuring justice, the risk of future unrest looms large.

While Sharaa insists his government is committed to stability, the coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Syria moves toward reconciliation or deeper conflict.

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Ahmed al-Sharaa, the de facto leader of Syria and head of the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has stated that the country is exhausted from years of war and is no longer a threat to its neighbors or the West. In a BBC interview from Damascus, Sharaa also called for the lifting of sanctions imposed on Syria, arguing that they were meant for the old regime and that the country’s people should not continue to suffer under them.

“Syria has endured so much. Now, after everything that’s happened, these sanctions should be lifted because they were aimed at the previous regime. The victim and the oppressor should not be treated the same way,” Sharaa said.

Leading the recent successful offensive against Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Sharaa rose to prominence as the leader of HTS, a major rebel group. He was previously known by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani. Despite the group’s origins as a splinter faction of al-Qaeda, which it separated from in 2016, Sharaa argued that HTS should no longer be labeled as a terrorist organization. He insisted that HTS did not target civilians or civilian areas and viewed itself as a victim of Assad’s regime.

Sharaa dismissed concerns that Syria could end up resembling Afghanistan, a nation known for its tribal society. He emphasized the differences between the two countries, highlighting Syria’s distinct cultural and social framework. Sharaa expressed his belief in women’s education, pointing out that in Idlib, Syria’s northwestern province controlled by rebels since 2011, more than 60% of university students are women.

When asked about issues like alcohol consumption, Sharaa stated that such matters were beyond his authority and should be handled by legal experts in a future constitutional committee. He added that any future leaders or presidents would need to abide by the law.

Throughout the interview, Sharaa appeared calm and reassuring, trying to counteract perceptions that his group had not moved away from extremist ideologies. However, many Syrians remain skeptical, and the country’s future leadership will ultimately determine the kind of government Syria will have in the years to come.

The next few months will be critical in shaping Syria’s path forward, as the new rulers’ actions will reveal the true direction for the nation’s political and social future.

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Israel’s borders have always been in flux, shaped by wars, annexations, and peace agreements since the country’s founding in 1948. Now, with the downfall of Syrian President Bashar Assad, Israel’s borders could shift once again.

A New Military Presence in Syria

On Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the Syrian side of the 50-year-old demilitarized buffer zone and announced that Israeli troops would remain in the area indefinitely. This marks a significant change, as Israel had previously entered the zone after Assad’s fall to ensure that no groups threatening Israel would gain power in Syria.

Netanyahu emphasized that this presence is defensive, but he also made it clear that Israel would stay “until another arrangement is found to ensure Israel’s security.”

A History of Changing Borders

Since its establishment, Israel has never had fully recognized borders. The 1947 U.N. partition plan intended to divide Mandatory Palestine into Jewish and Arab states, but it was never implemented. After declaring independence in 1948, Israel fought neighboring Arab nations, which led to Israel controlling about 77% of the land. The West Bank and Gaza were controlled by Jordan and Egypt, respectively, and Jerusalem became a focal point of conflict.

Though Israel annexed east Jerusalem, the West Bank remains considered occupied territory internationally. Israel also built settlements in the Sinai, Golan Heights, and Gaza Strip, some of which were later dismantled.

Key Moments in Israel’s Border History:

1. 1979 Peace Agreement with Egypt: Israel returned the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt as part of a peace deal.
2. 1981 Golan Heights Annexation: Israel annexed the Golan Heights, a decision recognized only by the U.S. in 2019.
3. 1982 Lebanon Invasion: Israel occupied southern Lebanon for 18 years before withdrawing in 2000.
4. 1993 Oslo Accords: An interim peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians aimed at establishing a two-state solution, which has faced repeated setbacks.
5. 2005 Gaza Withdrawal: Israel unilaterally withdrew from Gaza, which was later overtaken by Hamas.
6. 2023 Gaza and Lebanon Conflicts: Israel responded to Hamas attacks and fought Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.

The Fall of Assad and Israel’s Response

In December, following Assad’s downfall, Israel moved into Syria’s side of the buffer zone, a region established after the 1973 Mideast war. While Israel describes its presence as temporary, it has already drawn international criticism, including from Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the U.N.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has urged restraint to prevent further escalation, while Syria’s new government has lodged a formal complaint with the U.N.

Will Israel Stay in Syria?

Some experts believe Israel’s presence in Syria may not evolve into a full occupation. Carmit Valensi, a Syria expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, suggested that Israel has little to gain from provoking Syrian forces. A long-term occupation would be costly for Israel, both economically and militarily. If a moderate Syrian regime emerges, Israel may choose to withdraw, depending on how the situation develops.

In conclusion, Israel’s borders continue to shift, influenced by the broader dynamics of the region. While Israel’s military presence in Syria is framed as a temporary defensive measure, it remains to be seen whether this will evolve into a more permanent territorial change.

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In churches across Syria, Christians gathered for the first Sunday services since the ousting of Bashar Assad, an event that marked a significant turning point in the country’s transformation. The atmosphere was filled with both optimism and emotion, as many worshippers wept with relief, while others clasped their hands in prayer for Syria’s future.

Jihad Raffoul, one of the attendees, shared his hope, saying, “They are promising us that the government will be formed soon, and, God willing, things will improve because we’ve rid ourselves of the tyrant.” Suzan Barakat echoed this sentiment, praying for “a new page in Syria’s future.”

As Syria embarks on this uncertain journey, the United Nations envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, called for an immediate end to the Western sanctions that have crippled the country’s economy and hindered reconstruction efforts. Pedersen emphasized the importance of international support to rebuild Syria and ensure a peaceful future.

Syria has endured sanctions from the U.S., European Union, and others for years due to Assad’s violent crackdown on peaceful anti-government protests in 2011, which eventually spiraled into a brutal civil war. While the recent offensive led by the rebel alliance ousted Assad and forced him into exile, the country remains heavily isolated by sanctions, which have compounded its economic struggles.

Despite the challenges, the swift downfall of Assad has sparked a sense of optimism among Syrians. However, questions about governance persist. The new transitional leadership, which includes factions like the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), remains controversial. HTS is still designated as a terrorist group by the U.S., though reports indicate that the Biden administration is reconsidering this designation.

Pedersen stressed the need for a rapid international response to support Syria’s transition. “We hope to see the sanctions lifted soon to rally international support for rebuilding Syria,” he stated.

The country’s infrastructure remains in ruins after years of conflict, and reconstruction efforts have been hindered by sanctions aimed at blocking rebuilding efforts in government-controlled areas. Pedersen met with officials from Syria’s new interim government, which was formed by the opposition forces that ousted Assad, and which is now led by HTS. The U.S. has suggested that it might lift the terrorist designation on HTS in exchange for cooperation.

At an emergency meeting in Jordan, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and representatives from the Arab League, Turkey, the EU, and the U.N. discussed Syria’s future. They agreed that the new government should uphold minority and women’s rights, prevent terrorism, ensure humanitarian aid reaches those in need, and destroy any remaining Assad-era chemical weapons.

Syria’s interim government is expected to rule until March, though there is no clear plan for how a permanent administration will be established. Arab foreign ministers have advocated for U.N.-supervised elections under a new constitution approved by the Syrian people.

Pedersen underscored the need for a Syrian-led political process that includes all citizens. “We need to get the political process underway that is inclusive of all Syrians,” he said, emphasizing the need for justice and accountability for war crimes. Many families continue to search for loved ones detained by Assad’s regime.

Syria’s Christian community, which made up 10% of the population before the war, has been deeply affected by the conflict. Many Christians fled or supported Assad out of fear of Islamist insurgents. Church services were suspended in the past, but this Sunday marked a hopeful return. Ibrahim Shahin, a Catholic church supervisor, reflected on the past: “We were scared of the events taking place.” But this Sunday, church doors reopened, and the sound of bells rang through the air.

In a broader sign of Syria’s attempt to return to normalcy, schools in Damascus reopened after a long hiatus due to insurgent occupation. At Nahla Zaidan school in the Mezzah neighborhood, teachers raised the revolutionary flag, signaling a shift in the country’s political climate.

Maysoun Al-Ali, the school’s director, remarked, “Although some may still be afraid, they came to build Syria and to live the victories of this country. God willing, there will be more development, security, and reconstruction in this beloved country.”

Syria stands at a crossroads, with hopes for rebuilding its economy, infrastructure, and society, but the road ahead remains uncertain. As the country seeks a new chapter, the prayers of its people reflect a longing for peace and a better future.

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Russia launched a series of air strikes in Syria on Sunday, targeting key rebel positions as opposition forces advanced toward the south. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that the strikes killed four people and wounded 50 others in Idlib, a city in north-western Syria. Rural areas of Idlib and Hama, recently captured by rebel groups, were also hit.

This latest offensive, which began earlier in the week, marks some of the fiercest fighting in Syria’s civil war in recent years. Since Wednesday, over 300 people have been killed, including at least 20 civilians.

Rebels Take Aleppo Amid Russian Strikes

For the first time since 2016, Russian forces carried out air strikes on Aleppo on Saturday. Rebel fighters, led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), made significant gains in the city, capturing large sections with minimal resistance. Aleppo, once a stronghold of the opposition, fell to government forces in 2016, but it is now back in rebel hands.

The rebels have pushed southward, advancing into several towns near Hama, Syria’s fourth-largest city. Syrian forces have drawn up defensive lines around key towns in the region, with both Syrian and Russian warplanes intensifying air strikes on rebel positions. These strikes have resulted in multiple casualties.

Syrian Military Responds

The Syrian military has reinforced its defenses in the region, deploying additional troops, heavy artillery, and rocket launchers. The government claims to have recaptured several towns from the rebels and stopped their advance. President Bashar al-Assad has vowed to protect Syria’s stability, promising to eliminate the terrorist threat with the help of allies, including Russia and Iran.

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Aragchi, expressed his country’s full support for the Syrian government and military, signaling continued backing in the face of the ongoing offensive.

The State of Syria’s Civil War

The Syrian civil war began in 2011, when protests against Assad’s government were met with violent crackdowns. Since then, the war has claimed the lives of nearly half a million people. While much of the fighting has died down since a 2020 ceasefire, opposition forces continue to control Idlib and surrounding areas.

Idlib is located just 55 km from Aleppo, which was previously a rebel stronghold. The current offensive, spearheaded by HTS and allied factions backed by Turkey, is the largest escalation in the region in years.

Rebels Gain Ground and Impose Curfew

Rebels have taken control of Aleppo’s airport and several nearby towns. A curfew has been imposed, starting at 5 p.m. local time. The rebels have also advanced southward toward Hama, while the Syrian army reportedly withdrew from some areas. However, state media disputes these claims, with military sources saying the rebels launched broad attacks along both the Aleppo and Idlib fronts, covering over 100 km of territory.

Russian Involvement in the Conflict

Russian air strikes in Aleppo and Idlib signal Moscow’s continued support for Assad. The strikes on Aleppo were the first since the city was recaptured from the opposition in 2016. The escalation is a sign that Russia remains heavily involved in Syria’s conflict, using air power to target rebel forces.

As the fighting intensifies, many residents of Aleppo are fleeing, with reports showing long lines of cars on roads leaving the city. Smoke was visible rising from the skyline, as people attempt to escape the violence.

The ongoing reliance on Russian and Iranian support, along with Syria’s failure to adhere to a 2015 UN peace plan, has contributed to the continued instability in the country, according to a U.S. spokesperson.

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