The recent surge in Syrian rebel activity, led by Islamist forces, poses significant challenges to President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and has broad implications for the Middle East’s geopolitical balance. Key players—including Arab states, Iran, Israel, Russia, and Turkey—are reassessing their strategies as the conflict takes a dramatic turn.

The Rebellion’s Rapid Gains

In a swift offensive, rebels captured Aleppo and Hama, with ambitions to advance further south to Homs, edging closer to Damascus. The rebellion, spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has intensified calls for Assad’s removal. Rebel leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani stated their aim: overthrowing the Assad regime by any means necessary.

Arab States: Shifting Alliances

The rebel advances test the commitment of Gulf Arab nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have pivoted from isolating Assad to supporting his regime. These states initially backed opposition forces during the Syrian civil war, seeing Assad’s downfall as a way to curb Iranian influence. However, Assad’s survival, aided by Russia and Iran, has led to his regional rehabilitation. Now, these nations are cautious, prioritizing stability over regime change.

Iran: A Vulnerable Axis

For Iran, Syria has been a cornerstone of its regional influence. Tehran’s military support, through the IRGC and Hezbollah, has been crucial for Assad. However, the rebellion’s momentum exposes Iran’s vulnerabilities, especially as Hezbollah redirects resources to the conflict with Israel. The loss of Syrian territory could disrupt Iranian supply routes to proxies and weaken its strategic position, forcing Tehran into a delicate balancing act between defending its interests and pursuing diplomacy with the West.

Israel: Navigating Threats

Israel finds itself in a complex situation. While Assad’s regime has allowed Iranian military presence in Syria, it hasn’t directly threatened Israel. The current rebellion, however, led by Islamist groups like HTS, presents new risks. Israel must ensure the rebellion doesn’t empower hostile forces while continuing to target Iranian assets in Syria. For now, Israel benefits from Iran and its proxies being weakened, but the long-term implications remain uncertain.

Russia: Stretched Thin

Russia’s intervention in 2015 was pivotal in stabilizing Assad’s rule. Yet, the ongoing rebellion challenges Moscow’s ability to maintain its influence in Syria, especially as its focus shifts to the war in Ukraine. While Russian airstrikes have ramped up against rebel positions, the rapid rebel advances highlight the limits of Moscow’s capacity to mobilize resources effectively in Syria.

Turkey: Strategic Maneuvering

Turkey, the primary backer of the Syrian National Army, plays a dual role—supporting opposition forces while exploring a potential rapprochement with Assad. President Erdogan seeks to position Turkey advantageously, aiming for significant concessions from Assad in future negotiations. Another priority for Turkey is addressing its domestic challenges, including hosting 3.1 million Syrian refugees, by pushing for a buffer zone along its border and countering Kurdish insurgents.

A Region in Flux

The Syrian rebellion reshapes regional power dynamics, with key players recalibrating their approaches. For Assad’s allies, the stakes are high as they face the possibility of losing a critical foothold. Meanwhile, neighboring nations and global powers tread cautiously, balancing immediate interests with long-term stability in a volatile Middle East.

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Hundreds of civilians have fled the central Syrian city of Homs, seeking safety as anti-regime rebels continue their rapid advance south toward Damascus. Overnight into Friday, videos showed highways packed with vehicles as residents left the city, fearing an impending clash between rebel forces and government troops.

Rebels Eye Strategic City After Capturing Hama

On Thursday, the rebels seized the city of Hama, located north of Homs, and immediately shifted their focus to the strategic crossroads city. Capturing Homs could split the territories controlled by President Bashar al-Assad into two isolated regions: one encompassing Damascus and the other along the Syrian coast.

“Our heroic people in Homs, your time has come,” a rebel spokesperson declared, calling for support from locals. The rebel coalition, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has recently captured two major cities in just over a week, aiming to overthrow the Assad regime.

“Our objective remains clear: the overthrow of this regime by all necessary means,” said Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, leader of HTS, in an exclusive CNN interview on Thursday.

Fears of Sectarian Retaliation

Homs, home to a significant Alawite population—Assad’s co-religionists—has become a flashpoint. Many Alawites fear retaliation from Islamist rebels who accuse their community of supporting Assad and dominating Syria’s political system.

A Lightning Offensive Reignites Civil War

The rebel coalition’s recent offensive began on November 27, bursting out of their northwest Idlib stronghold. Within days, they captured Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, and Hama, meeting minimal resistance from government forces caught unprepared by the speed of the attacks.

If Homs falls, it would mark a major turning point, effectively cutting Assad’s forces into two isolated zones. Rebel forces have already celebrated significant victories, with videos showing fighters jubilantly entering captured cities.

“Guys, my country is being liberated. I swear, we are in Hama and Aleppo,” a rebel fighter exclaims in one video, standing near Hama’s Alaarbaen Roundabout.

The rebels also released hundreds of prisoners from Hama’s central jail, claiming they were “wrongfully detained.” This same city was the site of a brutal massacre in 1982, when Assad’s father, Hafez al-Assad, crushed a revolt, killing thousands.

A Fragile Regime Under Pressure

Jolani believes the Assad regime’s collapse is imminent. “The seeds of its defeat have always been there. Foreign powers like Iran and Russia tried to prop it up, but the regime is effectively dead,” he said.

The Assad regime has not commented on the rapid rebel advances. Internet blackouts in Homs and the surrounding areas have made it difficult to verify reports from the city.

The Human Cost of a Renewed Conflict

The offensive has reawakened Syria’s civil war, which began in 2011 during the Arab Spring protests. Initially peaceful demonstrations demanding democratic reforms were met with violent crackdowns by the regime, spiraling into a protracted conflict involving multiple foreign powers.

Over a decade of war has left more than 300,000 civilians dead and displaced millions across the region, according to the United Nations.

As the rebels push southward, the future of the Assad regime and the Syrian people hangs in uncertainty. For many fleeing Homs, survival remains the only priority.

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Russia launched a series of air strikes in Syria on Sunday, targeting key rebel positions as opposition forces advanced toward the south. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that the strikes killed four people and wounded 50 others in Idlib, a city in north-western Syria. Rural areas of Idlib and Hama, recently captured by rebel groups, were also hit.

This latest offensive, which began earlier in the week, marks some of the fiercest fighting in Syria’s civil war in recent years. Since Wednesday, over 300 people have been killed, including at least 20 civilians.

Rebels Take Aleppo Amid Russian Strikes

For the first time since 2016, Russian forces carried out air strikes on Aleppo on Saturday. Rebel fighters, led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), made significant gains in the city, capturing large sections with minimal resistance. Aleppo, once a stronghold of the opposition, fell to government forces in 2016, but it is now back in rebel hands.

The rebels have pushed southward, advancing into several towns near Hama, Syria’s fourth-largest city. Syrian forces have drawn up defensive lines around key towns in the region, with both Syrian and Russian warplanes intensifying air strikes on rebel positions. These strikes have resulted in multiple casualties.

Syrian Military Responds

The Syrian military has reinforced its defenses in the region, deploying additional troops, heavy artillery, and rocket launchers. The government claims to have recaptured several towns from the rebels and stopped their advance. President Bashar al-Assad has vowed to protect Syria’s stability, promising to eliminate the terrorist threat with the help of allies, including Russia and Iran.

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Aragchi, expressed his country’s full support for the Syrian government and military, signaling continued backing in the face of the ongoing offensive.

The State of Syria’s Civil War

The Syrian civil war began in 2011, when protests against Assad’s government were met with violent crackdowns. Since then, the war has claimed the lives of nearly half a million people. While much of the fighting has died down since a 2020 ceasefire, opposition forces continue to control Idlib and surrounding areas.

Idlib is located just 55 km from Aleppo, which was previously a rebel stronghold. The current offensive, spearheaded by HTS and allied factions backed by Turkey, is the largest escalation in the region in years.

Rebels Gain Ground and Impose Curfew

Rebels have taken control of Aleppo’s airport and several nearby towns. A curfew has been imposed, starting at 5 p.m. local time. The rebels have also advanced southward toward Hama, while the Syrian army reportedly withdrew from some areas. However, state media disputes these claims, with military sources saying the rebels launched broad attacks along both the Aleppo and Idlib fronts, covering over 100 km of territory.

Russian Involvement in the Conflict

Russian air strikes in Aleppo and Idlib signal Moscow’s continued support for Assad. The strikes on Aleppo were the first since the city was recaptured from the opposition in 2016. The escalation is a sign that Russia remains heavily involved in Syria’s conflict, using air power to target rebel forces.

As the fighting intensifies, many residents of Aleppo are fleeing, with reports showing long lines of cars on roads leaving the city. Smoke was visible rising from the skyline, as people attempt to escape the violence.

The ongoing reliance on Russian and Iranian support, along with Syria’s failure to adhere to a 2015 UN peace plan, has contributed to the continued instability in the country, according to a U.S. spokesperson.

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