Despite President Trump’s claims of “total obliteration,” a new U.S. intelligence assessment paints a much more measured picture of the damage done to Iran’s nuclear program following recent American airstrikes.

According to an early report from the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the strikes—though damaging—set Iran back by only a few months. They didn’t destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure entirely, as both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have publicly claimed.

The findings, first reported by CNN and confirmed by two officials familiar with the classified report, challenge the public narrative pushed by the White House and raise concerns among experts that Iran may still retain the capability to eventually build a nuclear weapon.

Key Findings: What the U.S. Intelligence Report Reveals

• Damage was significant but not total: The DIA report states that while U.S. bombers hit nuclear facilities at Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan, these sites were not completely wiped out. Fordo’s entrance collapsed and infrastructure was damaged, but the underground enrichment facility remains largely intact.
• Iran preserved key materials: Intelligence suggests Iran had moved some of its enriched uranium stockpile before the strikes. It also retained much of its centrifuge infrastructure, essential for enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels.
• Minimal long-term disruption: Experts say the strikes set Iran’s program back only several months—far from the permanent destruction claimed by Trump and Netanyahu.
• Missed opportunity? The report raises the possibility that Iran, anticipating a strike, strategically relocated key assets, including uranium and possibly centrifuges, making the airstrikes less effective than hoped.

White House Pushes Back, Trump Doubles Down

The White House quickly rejected the DIA’s assessment. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt called the leaked report “flat-out wrong” and accused officials of trying to “demean President Trump” and the U.S. military.

“Everyone knows what happens when you drop fourteen 30,000-pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration,” Leavitt said.

Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, who claims to have reviewed damage reports, echoed the president’s messaging and went a step further—calling the leak “treasonous” and demanding an investigation.

Trump has repeatedly insisted that the strikes left Iran’s nuclear program in ruins and that the country will “never rebuild” its facilities.

Netanyahu, too, took a victory lap, calling the strikes “historic” and declaring, “we brought to ruin Iran’s nuclear program.”

What Experts and Satellite Images Suggest

Outside observers have long suspected Iran might attempt to hide its most sensitive materials. New satellite images appear to confirm that theory:

• Trucks and bulldozers were seen at Fordo days before the attack, possibly moving enriched uranium or sealing tunnel entrances with dirt.
• Maxar Technologies, a satellite imaging firm, confirmed that Fordo’s tunnels were sealed before the bombs hit, suggesting Iran had anticipated the strikes.
• Eric Brewer, a former U.S. intelligence analyst, said it’s plausible that uranium enriched to 60% was removed and that some equipment, like centrifuges, may have also been relocated.

Could Iran Still Build a Bomb?

According to experts, the answer is yes—though with some caveats.

• Iran holds enough enriched uranium to build several bombs if it chooses to enrich it further to 90% weapons-grade levels, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
• Vice President JD Vance defended the operation, saying that even if Iran kept some uranium, the strikes dismantled their ability to convert it into a weapon: “That is mission success.”
• IAEA Director Rafael Grossi has repeatedly warned that Iran’s stockpile could enable weapon production if political leadership gives the order—something that has not yet officially happened.
• Iran is also said to be constructing a third enrichment site in Isfahan, but after the joint Israeli-American strikes, the status of that site is now uncertain.

So Where Does This Leave Us?

The big takeaway: While the strikes were powerful and symbolic, they fell short of eliminating Iran’s nuclear potential.

Iran still retains a “solid foundation” for restarting its nuclear efforts, says Brewer, especially if it chooses to go covert. And with critical materials and knowledge still intact, the international community may soon face a more determined and less transparent nuclear Iran.

Kelsey Davenport, a nonproliferation expert at the Arms Control Association, warned that if Iran has already hidden centrifuges, it could enrich weapons-grade uranium at a secret facility with a small footprint.

However, Brewer notes that any covert effort would start at a disadvantage. Iran has lost some key equipment and personnel, and building a bomb won’t happen overnight.

The Bigger Picture

With tensions high and facts disputed, the truth likely lies somewhere in between public declarations and classified assessments.

Yes, the strikes hit Iran hard—but “obliteration” may be more political theater than military fact. And if Iran’s nuclear ambitions remain alive, the path forward could be even more complicated than before.

Source: CNN – Early US intelligence report suggests US strikes only set back Iran’s nuclear program by months

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As the conflict between Iran and Israel stretches into its second week, tensions escalated sharply this weekend when the U.S. launched strikes on three of Iran’s most critical nuclear sites. President Donald Trump confirmed the attacks Saturday evening on Truth Social, naming the targets: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

These sites aren’t just symbolic—each plays a major role in Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Here’s a closer look at what makes them so important, and why they were targeted.

Natanz: The Heart of Iran’s Enrichment Program

Located about 150 miles south of Tehran, Natanz is Iran’s largest uranium enrichment facility—and arguably the most vital. This sprawling complex has been enriching uranium since 2003 and is considered the core of Iran’s nuclear development.

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has used Natanz to enrich uranium up to 60% purity. For context, weapons-grade uranium sits at 90%. That makes Natanz a red-flag site for any international watchdog.

The site includes six above-ground buildings and three underground structures. Two of those underground facilities are reportedly capable of housing 50,000 centrifuges, according to the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI).

In the latest U.S. strikes, the above-ground portion of Natanz’s Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant was destroyed. Satellite imagery confirmed the damage. U.S. officials also said earlier strikes knocked out power to the lower levels of the facility—where many centrifuges are kept—crippling some of Iran’s underground nuclear operations.

Fordow: Iran’s Hidden Fortress

Fordow is the most secretive of the three. Tucked into a mountain range near the holy city of Qom, this heavily fortified facility is estimated to lie about 80 to 90 meters (260 to 295 feet) underground.

That depth makes it nearly impervious to conventional airstrikes. In fact, U.S. bunker-busting bombs are likely the only weapons capable of reaching that far underground, and even then, experts warn it may not be enough to completely destroy it.

So why is Fordow such a big deal? Because of what’s happening inside.

The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) estimates Iran could convert its current stockpile of 60% enriched uranium into enough weapons-grade material for nine nuclear bombs—in just three weeks—using the centrifuges at Fordow.

Recent IAEA reports also show Iran has ramped up uranium production at the site, which now houses 2,700 centrifuges.

Isfahan: The Brain of the Nuclear Program

Located in central Iran, Isfahan serves as the research and development backbone of the country’s nuclear efforts.

Built in partnership with China and opened in 1984, the site employs around 3,000 scientists and is widely believed to be the nerve center of Iran’s nuclear research.

According to NTI, the facility includes:

• Three small Chinese-supplied research reactors
• A uranium conversion plant
• A fuel production facility
• A zirconium cladding plant (used in reactor fuel)
• Various labs and support buildings

In short, Isfahan isn’t where bombs are built—but it’s where the know-how and materials come together.

Why These Strikes Matter

All three sites—Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan—represent different pillars of Iran’s nuclear program: enrichment, weaponization potential, and research. Taking them out, or at least weakening them, signals a dramatic escalation in the U.S. response to rising tensions in the region.

While it’s too soon to tell how deeply the strikes have set back Iran’s nuclear ambitions, one thing is clear: these were no random targets. They were deliberate, high-stakes moves aimed at the very core of Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

Source: CNN – What we know about the three Iranian nuclear sites struck by the US

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Israel’s ambassador to the United States warned this week that Iran’s growing arsenal of ballistic missiles is just as dangerous as its nuclear program—and both must be dismantled to protect regional and global security.

In a Wednesday interview with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins, Ambassador Yechiel Leiter stressed that Israel sees Iran’s missile production capabilities as an inseparable part of its broader military threat. “They come cruising out of the sky and create incredible damage,” Leiter said. “That production capacity has to be eliminated as well.”

His comments come amid a backdrop of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, fueled by fears that Tehran is edging closer to building a nuclear bomb. While international focus has largely been on Iran’s enrichment of uranium, Israel has consistently warned that the country’s ballistic missile program—capable of delivering warheads across the region—is an equally urgent threat.

The Dual Threat: Nuclear and Ballistic

Iran has long insisted that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. But since the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal under President Donald Trump, Tehran has stepped up its enrichment activities and restricted international inspections. The Biden administration has sought to revive elements of the agreement, but negotiations have stalled amid political roadblocks and Iran’s continued nuclear progress.

At the same time, Iran has been expanding its missile arsenal, including long-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel and U.S. military bases in the Middle East. Experts say Iran now possesses one of the largest and most diverse missile programs in the region.

Leiter emphasized that this dual-threat—nuclear capability plus the means to deliver it—represents an existential danger to Israel. “They cannot have the weapons that can destroy Israel, which they claim and which they want to do every day,” he said, referencing Tehran’s repeated calls for the end of the Israeli state.

Israel’s Options: Military Action on the Table

When asked whether Israel could strike Iran’s underground Fordow nuclear facility—deeply buried in a mountain near the city of Qom—Leiter didn’t offer specifics but signaled that military options are being considered. “It might require multiple strikes, it might require something else, or it might require one of our surprises,” he said.

Fordow is one of Iran’s most heavily fortified sites and would be extremely difficult to destroy in a single airstrike. Its protection by mountains and advanced air defenses makes it a prime example of why military analysts believe a strike on Iran would be far more complex than Israel’s past operations against nuclear programs in Iraq (1981) and Syria (2007).

Still, Israel has made clear it won’t rule out acting alone. “If we have to pursue this and prosecute this by ourselves, we’re going to know what to do,” Leiter said. “We’re not going to allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.”

Strategic Pressure as U.S. Hesitates

Leiter’s remarks come as the Biden administration weighs its options in the face of Iran’s accelerating nuclear development. While Washington has expressed deep concern about Iran’s enrichment levels—now reportedly close to weapons-grade—it has stopped short of committing to military action.

This hesitation has fueled Israeli fears that the international community may once again tolerate a dangerous status quo. As a result, Israel is increasing its pressure—both diplomatically and rhetorically—while signaling that it is prepared to act unilaterally if necessary.

Israel’s military has been conducting drills simulating long-range strikes and preparing for potential conflict on multiple fronts. Meanwhile, Israeli intelligence officials have publicly warned that Tehran may be just weeks away from producing enough fissile material for a bomb—though weaponization would still take more time.

A Broader Regional Struggle

Beyond the nuclear file, Israel and Iran have been locked in a shadow war that spans the region—from Syria and Lebanon to the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. Iran’s support for Hezbollah, Palestinian militant groups, and proxies across the Middle East has kept Israel on constant alert.

With no sign that Iran is backing down, and with diplomacy stalled, Israel’s message this week was unmistakable: it views the threat from Tehran as urgent, multidimensional, and something it’s prepared to confront alone if it must.

“The threats are real,” Leiter said. “And our responsibility is to make sure they never materialize.”

Source: CNN – Israeli envoy to US says Iran’s ability to produce ballistic weapons must also be eliminated

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JERUSALEM — In a bold and highly coordinated military and intelligence operation, Israel shocked Iran last week with a surprise attack that dismantled large portions of Iran’s air defenses, targeted its nuclear infrastructure, and killed senior military leaders — all with the help of AI, smuggled drones, and years of deep espionage.

This wasn’t a spontaneous strike. According to Israeli officials, the operation — codenamed “Operation Rising Lion” — was years in the making and marks one of the most sophisticated uses of combined human intelligence and artificial intelligence in modern warfare.

A Surprise Move, Years in the Making

The strike was launched late Friday, just days before another round of nuclear negotiations was scheduled to begin in Oman. Many in Tehran apparently assumed Israel wouldn’t attack while talks with the U.S. were underway — a miscalculation that allowed Israel to take full advantage of the element of surprise.

Israeli warplanes, backed by precision drone strikes and intelligence gathered by undercover agents, quickly overwhelmed Iranian missile systems and air defenses, creating enough space to carry out a broader assault on key nuclear and military sites.

Officials said the assault severely crippled Iran’s ability to retaliate. By the time Iranian forces responded, much of their strike capability had already been neutralized.

“This attack is the culmination of years of work by the Mossad to target Iran’s nuclear program,” said Sima Shine, former head of research at Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency.

How the Attack Was Pulled Off

The operation was built on a foundation of espionage, covert weapons transfers, and modern tech:

• Smuggled drones: Israeli agents reportedly spent three years sneaking small armed drones into Iran, concealing them in civilian vehicles. These drones were placed near Iranian air-defense sites and launched from within the country at the start of the attack.
• AI-assisted targeting: Israel used artificial intelligence to rapidly process massive amounts of surveillance and communication data. The tech helped map out which individuals and sites posed the biggest threat and sorted targets into categories like leadership, infrastructure, and military capability.
• Human intelligence: Alongside AI, Israeli spies on the ground helped pinpoint locations of top Iranian generals and nuclear scientists. Mossad operatives worked closely with local assets to stage the attacks from within Iran’s own borders.
• Vehicle strikes: In a tactic echoing Ukrainian strategies against Russia, Israeli forces targeted vehicles transporting missile systems and tactical drones.

Who Was Targeted — and Killed

Among the high-profile casualties were:

• Gen. Hossein Salami, commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.
• Gen. Mohammed Bagheri, Iran’s armed forces chief of staff.
• Eight other senior Revolutionary Guard officials, including the head of Iran’s missile program, reportedly killed in a single bunker strike.

According to a senior Israeli intelligence officer, the goal was to strike “leadership nodes” of the Revolutionary Guard and key figures in Iran’s nuclear apparatus — both as a strategic blow and as a message.

Why Now?

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long insisted that neutralizing Iran’s nuclear capabilities is essential for Israel’s survival. Iran’s leadership has continued enriching uranium close to weapons-grade levels — despite U.S. diplomatic efforts and warnings from international watchdogs.

With talks at a stalemate and Iran pressing ahead, Netanyahu apparently decided the time for preemptive diplomacy had passed.

Iran maintains its nuclear program is strictly for peaceful purposes, but Israeli intelligence has consistently worked under the assumption that the endgame is a nuclear weapon.

A Long History of Shadow War

This wasn’t Israel’s first clandestine operation inside Iran — just its most dramatic. The Mossad is believed to be behind:

• The Stuxnet cyberattack in the 2000s that sabotaged Iran’s nuclear centrifuges.
• The 2018 raid that extracted a secret Iranian nuclear archive from Tehran.
• The 2024 assassination of senior Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh inside a Tehran guesthouse.

Israel has also repeatedly targeted Iranian proxies in Syria and Lebanon, all part of what Netanyahu calls a “multi-front campaign to defend the homeland.”

Iran’s Response: Limited and Scrambling

Iranian authorities acknowledged discovering vehicles carrying tactical drones and blamed “traitors” for helping foreign agents. Their air defense forces scrambled to intercept incoming attacks but were reportedly overwhelmed.

The country’s police chief, Gen. Ahmadreza Radan, confirmed some drones were intercepted — but many more got through. Iranian state TV aired footage of damaged vehicles and facilities, though the full extent of the destruction remains unclear.

What Comes Next?

While Iran’s ability to strike back may be temporarily crippled, tensions in the region are higher than ever. Israeli officials say they’re prepared for potential retaliation and view this operation as part of a larger, ongoing campaign to contain Iranian aggression and nuclear ambitions.

“This didn’t come out of nowhere,” said retired Israeli Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi. “It was the result of years of Israeli intelligence work and a robust presence deep inside Iran.”

Source: AP News – How Israel used spies, smuggled drones and AI to stun and hobble Iran

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A drone armed with a warhead struck the protective outer shell of Ukraine’s Chernobyl nuclear plant early Friday, causing a hole in the structure and briefly sparking a fire. Ukraine has blamed Russia for the attack, though the Kremlin denies involvement.

No Radiation Leak, Says IAEA

Despite the damage, radiation levels remain stable, according to the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The agency confirmed that its team stationed at the site heard an explosion and was informed that a drone had hit the plant’s protective shell, but the inner containment structure remained intact.

Fears of a Nuclear Disaster

The Chernobyl plant, the site of the 1986 nuclear disaster, has been a source of concern throughout the three-year war in Ukraine. Fighting near nuclear facilities has raised global fears of a potential catastrophe.

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest, has also come under drone attacks during the war, but without significant damage.

Ukraine’s Response: A Warning to the World?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the Russian drone attack caused a fire at Chernobyl but assured that it was quickly extinguished.

“The only country in the world that would attack nuclear facilities, occupy nuclear plant territories, and conduct military operations without regard for consequences is today’s Russia,” Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram.

He emphasized that Russia must be held accountable and claimed the strike was a “clear message” from Putin to the Munich Security Conference, which was taking place that same day.

Ukraine plans to present detailed information about the attack to U.S. officials at the conference, according to Andrii Yermak, head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office.

Kremlin Denies Responsibility

Russian government spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied involvement, saying:

“There is no talk about strikes on nuclear infrastructure. Any such claim isn’t true. Our military doesn’t do that.”

Peskov went further, alleging that Ukraine staged a “false flag” attack to frame Russia and disrupt potential negotiations between Trump and Putin.

Chernobyl’s Protective Structure Damaged

The outer protective shell, built in 2016, was designed to prevent radiation leaks and was placed over the plant’s fourth reactor, which suffered the catastrophic 1986 explosion. The Ukrainian Emergency Service shared a photo showing a hole in the roof of the massive steel-and-concrete structure, which weighs 40,000 tons and is tall enough to fit Paris’ Notre Dame Cathedral inside.

The fire and explosion also damaged equipment in a maintenance garage, but there was no immediate risk of radioactive leakage, according to Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of Ukraine’s Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

“The protective structure is strong and reliable, though it has been damaged,” he said.

Trump’s Sudden Shift on Ukraine Policy

The strike came two days after former U.S. President Donald Trump said he would meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss ending the war. This move has raised concerns about sidelining Ukraine and European governments in any future negotiations.

Zelenskyy responded by stating that Ukraine wants security guarantees before engaging in any peace talks and said he would only meet Putin in person after a negotiation plan is agreed upon with Trump.

IAEA on High Alert

IAEA chief Rafael Grossi warned that the attack on Chernobyl, along with recent military activity near Zaporizhzhia, underscores “persistent nuclear safety risks.”

The IAEA team at Chernobyl responded within minutes of the explosion and confirmed that no one was injured.

“Radiation levels inside and outside remain normal and stable,” the agency reported.

As the war continues, fears of a nuclear catastrophe grow, with Ukraine insisting that Russia must be held accountable for endangering global security.

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OSLO, Norway (AP) — A 92-year-old survivor of the Nagasaki atomic bombing, Terumi Tanaka, vividly recounted the horrors he witnessed in 1945 as he accepted the Nobel Peace Prize on behalf of Nihon Hidankyo, a Japanese grassroots movement of atomic bomb survivors.

The prize recognizes Nihon Hidankyo’s nearly 70-year campaign to uphold the global taboo against nuclear weapons. These efforts come as the threat of nuclear conflict looms larger, with superpowers modernizing arsenals and tensions escalating globally.

The Painful Memories of Nagasaki

In his acceptance lecture at Oslo City Hall, Tanaka described the fateful day of August 9, 1945, when Nagasaki was devastated by an American atomic bomb, just three days after Hiroshima suffered a similar fate.

Tanaka recalled the piercing sound of bomber jets, followed by a blinding white flash and a powerful shock wave. Days later, he and his mother searched the ruins for family members near the bomb’s hypocenter.

“I saw many badly injured and burned people left unattended, with no help whatsoever. My emotions shut down as I walked to my destination,” he said.

Among the wreckage, Tanaka found the charred remains of his aunt, her grandson, and his grandfather, who died from severe burns. Another aunt succumbed to her injuries shortly before he arrived. In total, five members of his family were killed.

A Lifelong Fight Against Nuclear Weapons

Tanaka and Nihon Hidankyo have long campaigned to abolish nuclear weapons and secure compensation for survivors of the atomic bombings. The 1945 attacks on Nagasaki and Hiroshima killed an estimated 210,000 people by the year’s end, with the long-term death toll from radiation exposure likely far higher.

Tanaka urged citizens of nuclear-armed nations to reject policies that rely on these weapons, stating:

“Nuclear weapons cannot—and must not—coexist with humanity. I hope this belief will inspire change in nuclear policies worldwide.”

The Nuclear Threat Today

The Nobel Peace Prize was awarded against the backdrop of growing nuclear tensions. In his speech, Tanaka voiced deep concern over recent developments:

• Russia’s threats to use nuclear weapons in its war against Ukraine.
• An Israeli official’s suggestion of possible nuclear strikes amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

“These actions threaten to shatter the global taboo against nuclear weapons,” Tanaka said, expressing sadness and anger over the erosion of hard-won norms.

A Call for Global Disarmament

Jørgen Watne Frydnes, chair of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, emphasized the urgency of Tanaka’s message.

“None of the nine nuclear-armed countries—U.S., Russia, China, France, the U.K., India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea—show interest in disarmament. Instead, they are expanding their arsenals,” Frydnes said.

He called on the five nuclear powers bound by the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)—the U.S., Russia, China, France, and the U.K.—to honor their disarmament obligations. Frydnes warned:

“It is naive to believe our civilization can survive a global order reliant on nuclear weapons. The world cannot be a prison where we await collective annihilation.”

A Legacy of Hope and Action

As the survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki enter the twilight of their lives, their stories and activism take on even greater significance. Tanaka’s speech serves as a powerful reminder of the human cost of nuclear warfare and the urgent need for global action.

Nihon Hidankyo’s Nobel Peace Prize win amplifies their message: a world free of nuclear weapons is essential for humanity’s survival.

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Ukraine has reported that Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at Dnipro, a city in central-east Ukraine, marking the first time such a missile has been used in the ongoing conflict. According to a statement from Ukraine’s air force on Thursday, the missile was launched from Russia’s Astrakhan region, located near the Caspian Sea.

Alongside the ICBM, Russia also fired eight other missiles at Ukraine, but Ukrainian forces managed to intercept and shoot down six of them. The attack wounded two individuals and caused damage to an industrial facility and a rehabilitation center for people with disabilities.

Although the use of an ICBM against Ukraine may seem excessive given its long range, the missile’s potential to carry nuclear warheads underscores Russia’s nuclear capabilities. This attack serves as a stark reminder of the escalating risks in the conflict. The timing of this missile launch follows closely after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an updated nuclear doctrine that lowers the threshold for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons.

In a response to escalating attacks, Ukraine fired several American-supplied long-range missiles, including U.K.-made Storm Shadows, into Russia. The Russian Defense Ministry claimed to have intercepted two Storm Shadow missiles, six HIMARS rockets, and 67 drones, though it did not specify the locations or targets of these interceptions.

The war has continued to expand in scope, with the arrival of North Korean troops aiding Russia on the front lines. This development has prompted a shift in U.S. policy, allowing Ukraine to fire longer-range missiles into Russia. In retaliation, the Kremlin has threatened further escalation.

Putin has warned the U.S. and NATO that such actions could be considered as acts of war, and his new nuclear doctrine broadens the conditions under which Russia could consider using nuclear weapons—even in response to conventional attacks supported by a nuclear power. However, the doctrine remains vague, allowing Putin flexibility in how he might use nuclear threats in the future.

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