Israel has introduced a new ceasefire plan this week, attempting to impose an alternative to the original agreement made in January. The proposal, labeled the “Witkoff plan” by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is reportedly backed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff. However, the White House has not confirmed its involvement, stating only that it supports Israel’s actions.

The new plan was unveiled as the first phase of the existing ceasefire ended without clarity on the next steps. That agreement, reached after over a year of negotiations, was supposed to lead to a full resolution, including the release of all hostages and a lasting truce. However, with phase two still unresolved, Israel has resorted to a siege on the Gaza Strip, hoping to force Hamas into accepting new terms.

The New “Witkoff Proposal”

The main condition of the new proposal involves Hamas releasing half of its remaining hostages in exchange for an extension of the ceasefire and a promise to negotiate a more permanent peace deal. However, this plan does not address the release of Palestinian prisoners, a key element of the original ceasefire terms.

Hamas has accused Israel of trying to derail the existing agreement, which called for negotiations over the return of all hostages and the release of more Palestinian prisoners. These discussions, however, have not materialized, and now Israel has cut off all essential supplies—food, fuel, and medicine—to Gaza’s 2 million residents. Israel has warned that “additional consequences” will follow if Hamas refuses the new proposal.

Ceasefire in Limbo

The ceasefire that was brokered in January aimed to resolve the hostages crisis and halt the war sparked by the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack, which killed approximately 1,200 Israelis and took 251 hostages. While some hostages were released in earlier phases, Hamas still holds 59 hostages, many of whom are feared dead.

The first phase of the ceasefire, which lasted six weeks, saw Hamas release 25 Israeli hostages and the bodies of 8 others, in return for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. The agreement also allowed for the flow of humanitarian aid and saw Israeli forces withdraw from parts of Gaza. Despite accusations of violations from both sides, the ceasefire largely held.

However, phase two—focused on securing the return of all hostages—has proven more complex. Hamas has insisted that Israel must end the war in exchange for the remaining hostages, a scenario that would leave the militant group in control of Gaza.

Israel’s New Strategy

The Witkoff plan aims to weaken Hamas by reducing the number of hostages they hold. Under the new terms, Hamas would release half of the remaining hostages on day one, with no immediate concessions in return. Following this, the two sides would have about six weeks—spanning both Ramadan and Passover—to negotiate a permanent ceasefire and the return of the remaining hostages.

However, Israel and the U.S. are reportedly already discussing additional conditions—such as the disarmament of Hamas and the exile of its leadership—that were not part of the original deal. This could shift the balance in Israel’s favor, but it risks further escalating tensions with Hamas.

Netanyahu’s Political Calculations

Netanyahu’s government, which relies on far-right coalition partners, faces significant political pressure. These allies are calling for the complete elimination of Hamas and envision a future Gaza with a reduced population, something they describe as “voluntary emigration.” Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has even threatened to collapse the government if Netanyahu moves forward with phase two of the current ceasefire.

The new plan offers Netanyahu breathing room, buying him time to pass an essential budget by the end of the month. Failure to do so could lead to early elections, potentially weakening his political position.

The Unclear U.S. Position

Despite Netanyahu’s claims of full coordination with the Trump administration, the U.S. has not publicly endorsed the Witkoff proposal. Trump has made mixed statements about Gaza, initially promising to end Middle East conflicts but later expressing strong condemnation of Hamas’ treatment of captives. His position on whether to back Israel’s new plan remains uncertain.

Additionally, Trump’s controversial idea of relocating Gaza’s 2 million Palestinians to other countries, with the goal of transforming Gaza into a tourist destination, has been widely rejected by Palestinians and Arab nations. Human rights groups have also warned that such a plan could violate international law.

Arab Countries Propose Alternative Solutions

In response to Trump’s Gaza plan, Arab leaders are working on their own proposal for the post-war future of Gaza. Egypt’s counterproposal suggests Palestinians remain in Gaza, relocating to “safe zones” while cities are rebuilt. Under this plan, Hamas would hand over power to a transitional authority made up of political independents, with support from the international community to empower the Palestinian Authority.

However, Israel has firmly rejected any involvement of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza’s future, making it unlikely they would accept Egypt’s proposal. While Trump has called on Arab nations to present their own plans, it remains unclear whether he would support this alternative solution.

Key Takeaways:

• Israel has proposed a new ceasefire plan, the “Witkoff proposal,” to Hamas, which includes releasing half of the hostages in exchange for a ceasefire extension.
• Hamas has criticized the plan, accusing Israel of undermining the original ceasefire agreement.
• The new proposal could weaken Hamas’ position, but its acceptance remains uncertain.
• Netanyahu’s government faces significant political pressure from far-right allies and must navigate a delicate balance between war goals and political survival.
• The U.S. and Israel’s positions on Gaza remain unclear, with Trump’s controversial relocation idea adding further complexity.

Arab countries, including Egypt, are preparing counterproposals to offer a different vision for Gaza’s postwar future.

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