The recent surge in Syrian rebel activity, led by Islamist forces, poses significant challenges to President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and has broad implications for the Middle East’s geopolitical balance. Key players—including Arab states, Iran, Israel, Russia, and Turkey—are reassessing their strategies as the conflict takes a dramatic turn.

The Rebellion’s Rapid Gains

In a swift offensive, rebels captured Aleppo and Hama, with ambitions to advance further south to Homs, edging closer to Damascus. The rebellion, spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has intensified calls for Assad’s removal. Rebel leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani stated their aim: overthrowing the Assad regime by any means necessary.

Arab States: Shifting Alliances

The rebel advances test the commitment of Gulf Arab nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have pivoted from isolating Assad to supporting his regime. These states initially backed opposition forces during the Syrian civil war, seeing Assad’s downfall as a way to curb Iranian influence. However, Assad’s survival, aided by Russia and Iran, has led to his regional rehabilitation. Now, these nations are cautious, prioritizing stability over regime change.

Iran: A Vulnerable Axis

For Iran, Syria has been a cornerstone of its regional influence. Tehran’s military support, through the IRGC and Hezbollah, has been crucial for Assad. However, the rebellion’s momentum exposes Iran’s vulnerabilities, especially as Hezbollah redirects resources to the conflict with Israel. The loss of Syrian territory could disrupt Iranian supply routes to proxies and weaken its strategic position, forcing Tehran into a delicate balancing act between defending its interests and pursuing diplomacy with the West.

Israel: Navigating Threats

Israel finds itself in a complex situation. While Assad’s regime has allowed Iranian military presence in Syria, it hasn’t directly threatened Israel. The current rebellion, however, led by Islamist groups like HTS, presents new risks. Israel must ensure the rebellion doesn’t empower hostile forces while continuing to target Iranian assets in Syria. For now, Israel benefits from Iran and its proxies being weakened, but the long-term implications remain uncertain.

Russia: Stretched Thin

Russia’s intervention in 2015 was pivotal in stabilizing Assad’s rule. Yet, the ongoing rebellion challenges Moscow’s ability to maintain its influence in Syria, especially as its focus shifts to the war in Ukraine. While Russian airstrikes have ramped up against rebel positions, the rapid rebel advances highlight the limits of Moscow’s capacity to mobilize resources effectively in Syria.

Turkey: Strategic Maneuvering

Turkey, the primary backer of the Syrian National Army, plays a dual role—supporting opposition forces while exploring a potential rapprochement with Assad. President Erdogan seeks to position Turkey advantageously, aiming for significant concessions from Assad in future negotiations. Another priority for Turkey is addressing its domestic challenges, including hosting 3.1 million Syrian refugees, by pushing for a buffer zone along its border and countering Kurdish insurgents.

A Region in Flux

The Syrian rebellion reshapes regional power dynamics, with key players recalibrating their approaches. For Assad’s allies, the stakes are high as they face the possibility of losing a critical foothold. Meanwhile, neighboring nations and global powers tread cautiously, balancing immediate interests with long-term stability in a volatile Middle East.

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On Sunday, Syrian rebel forces took control of Damascus, declaring Syria “free” after a swift and decisive offensive that saw multiple major cities fall into their hands in recent weeks. The rapid success of the rebels is a clear indication that the Assad regime, which has clung to power for over 14 years amid a brutal civil war, has effectively collapsed.

Why This Matters:

The rebels’ victory in Damascus, with little to no significant resistance from Assad’s forces, signifies the end of the Assad regime’s control over Syria. This momentous shift comes after years of conflict and is a devastating blow to Syria’s government. The fall of Damascus is a significant geopolitical event, further destabilizing Syria and the Middle East in the short term.

In the long run, the collapse of Assad’s regime could have far-reaching consequences, not only for Syria but also for its key allies—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah—who have supported President Bashar al-Assad’s rule since the 2011 uprising.

Key Developments:

• Assad’s Disappearance: Reuters reported that Assad left Damascus on Sunday morning, with his whereabouts unknown.
• Rebels Free Prisoners: Rebel forces also took control of Sednaya prison, a notorious facility near Damascus, and released hundreds of prisoners. Social media footage showed Syrian soldiers abandoning their posts in the capital, many removing their uniforms and blending into the crowd as civilians.
• Celebrations in the Streets: Thousands gathered in Damascus’ main square, cheering as news spread of the regime’s fall. Al Jazeera and other news outlets broadcasted the jubilant scenes of Syrians celebrating their newfound freedom.
• Airport Seized: Rebel forces also captured Damascus International Airport, adding another blow to the regime’s hold on the capital.

The Road Ahead:

Hadi al-Bahra, head of the Syrian National Coalition, told Al-Arabiya that the regime has officially fallen, but emphasized that the focus is not on revenge. Instead, the goal is to restore security and stability to Syria. Meanwhile, Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, the Assad regime’s prime minister, expressed willingness to negotiate a peaceful transition of power, stressing the need to protect state institutions and ensure the safety of all citizens, including the opposition.

A Historic Shift:

This marks the end of 53 years of Assad family rule in Syria, which began with Hafez al-Assad’s coup in 1970. After his death in 2000, his son Bashar al-Assad took over, leading the country through a brutal crackdown on the 2011 uprising that ultimately plunged Syria into civil war. The collapse of the regime signifies not only the fall of the Assad dynasty but also the end of the secular Ba’ath Party’s rule, and the political dominance of Syria’s Alawite minority.

A Suspicious Departure:

In a dramatic turn of events, an Ilyushin-76 plane suspected of carrying President Assad was seen leaving Damascus airport just before rebel forces entered the city. The plane’s route, tracked via FlightRadar, showed it initially heading northwest before descending rapidly near Homs and eventually disappearing from radar.

This unfolding story is still developing, and further updates are expected as the situation evolves.

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For decades, Syria’s Assad dynasty cultivated an image of unshakable power. The phrase “Our leader forever,” often associated with Hafez al-Assad, symbolized his reign. Yet, behind this facade of permanence, the foundation of Assad’s rule has always been vulnerable.

Hafez al-Assad’s death in 2000 ended his physical presence but not the legacy of authoritarian rule, which his son, Bashar al-Assad, carried forward. Over the years, the regime faced significant threats, particularly during the 2011 Arab Spring, when protests and uprisings toppled autocrats across the Middle East. Bashar’s grip seemed precarious, yet he survived thanks to robust support from allies like Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia.

For much of the Syrian Civil War, the conflict appeared to be in a stalemate. Assad regained some semblance of legitimacy within Arab circles, even as Syria remained fractured, with US-backed Kurdish forces, Turkish-supported factions, and Israeli airstrikes all contributing to the chaos. Despite this fragmentation, Assad’s survival was seen by some as a victory.

This week, however, that illusion of stability was shattered. Rebels led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, formerly linked to al-Qaeda, launched a stunning offensive from Idlib province. In just 72 hours, they reached the heart of Aleppo, sparking social media reports of collapsing government forces in northern Syria and advances toward Hama—a city infamous for the brutal crackdown led by Hafez al-Assad in 1982.

The swift unraveling of the regime’s defenses highlights a critical factor: the weakening support of its key allies.

• Hezbollah, once a vital player in propping up the Assad regime, has withdrawn most of its fighters to confront Israel, a move that has cost the group much of its senior leadership.
• Russia, which intervened militarily in Syria in 2015 to stabilize Assad’s rule, is now preoccupied with its war in Ukraine.
• Iran, whose bases and advisers in Syria have suffered repeated Israeli strikes, appears increasingly stretched.

The Assad regime’s survival for 53 years is remarkable, but it has come at a devastating cost. Decades of corruption and mismanagement have left Syria’s economy in ruins, even before the civil war. Since 2011, the conflict has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, displaced millions, and further eroded any semblance of normalcy for Syrians.

While the Assad dynasty has weathered numerous crises, nothing lasts forever. The events of the past week serve as a stark reminder that even the most entrenched regimes are not immune to collapse.

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BEIRUT (AP) — On Sunday, Hezbollah fired at least 185 rockets and other projectiles into Israel, marking its heaviest attack in days. The barrage wounded seven people and came in response to deadly Israeli airstrikes on Beirut, even as efforts to negotiate a cease-fire continued.

An Israeli airstrike also hit a Lebanese army center on the southwestern coastal road between Tyre and Naqoura, killing one soldier and wounding 18 others, according to Lebanon’s military. Israel expressed regret for the incident, stating the strike occurred in an area of combat with Hezbollah and was not intended to target Lebanese forces. The incident is under investigation.

Since the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah began, Israeli strikes have killed over 40 Lebanese soldiers, despite Lebanon’s military largely remaining on the sidelines of the fighting.

Lebanon’s Reaction

Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati condemned the strike on the Lebanese army as a direct blow to U.S.-led cease-fire efforts. He described it as a “bloody message rejecting all ongoing attempts” to end the war.

Hezbollah’s Attacks and Israeli Retaliation

Hezbollah’s attacks, including rockets, missiles, and drones, began after the October 7, 2023, Hamas assault from Gaza. The group claims these actions are acts of solidarity with Palestinians and Hamas, both of which are supported by Iran.

Israel has launched numerous retaliatory strikes, including significant attacks in September that escalated the conflict into full-scale war. These strikes killed Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah and several senior commanders.

On Sunday, some of Hezbollah’s projectiles were intercepted by Israel’s defense systems, but others caused injuries and damage:

• A 60-year-old man in northern Israel was severely injured.
• A 23-year-old man in Petah Tikva suffered minor wounds.
• A 70-year-old woman in the same city suffered smoke inhalation when her car caught fire.
• A rocket strike in Haifa hit a residential building, leaving it at risk of collapse.

Israeli sirens sounded throughout central and northern regions as new attacks unfolded.

Impact of Israeli Airstrikes on Lebanon

Israeli airstrikes without prior warning on Saturday hit central Beirut, killing at least 29 people and wounding 67, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. On Sunday, smoke rose again over Beirut as new strikes targeted Hezbollah command centers in the southern Dahiyeh suburb.

The ongoing conflict has devastated Lebanon:

• Over 3,700 deaths and more than 1.2 million displaced, about a quarter of the population, according to the Health Ministry.
• On the Israeli side, approximately 90 soldiers and nearly 50 civilians have been killed since the conflict began. Around 60,000 Israelis have been displaced from northern areas.

International Efforts to Broker Peace

U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein has spent months attempting to mediate a cease-fire, while the European Union’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, urged both sides on Sunday to finalize an agreement.

Borrell met with Lebanese leaders, including Prime Minister Mikati and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally. The EU has pledged €200 million ($208 million) to support Lebanon’s military, which could deploy additional forces to the south if a truce is reached.

An emerging agreement would align with a U.N. Security Council resolution from 2006, requiring Hezbollah and Israeli forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon below the Litani River. The Lebanese army, supported by U.N. peacekeepers, would patrol the area.

Despite its symbolic role as a unifying national institution, Lebanon’s military lacks the capacity to confront Hezbollah or deter Israeli military actions. As the conflict escalates, the international community continues to press for a resolution to prevent further devastation.

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