BEIRUT – Tensions in Lebanon have reached a boiling point as Israel’s recent airstrike targeted a Hezbollah missile storage facility in Beirut’s southern suburbs, intensifying the already mounting pressure on the militant group to disarm.

For years, Hezbollah has been a formidable force in the region, but recent events have cast doubt on the group’s future, making disarmament seem increasingly inevitable. Hezbollah’s power has been severely undermined after its leadership suffered heavy losses in its ongoing conflict with Israel, and its key ally, Syria, has lost much of its influence with the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime. With vital supply routes from Iran blocked, Hezbollah’s strength is steadily diminishing.

While Israel and the U.S. have ramped up their calls for Hezbollah to disarm, the question remains: when and how will it happen? The situation is far from clear.

Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun has repeatedly emphasized that the disarmament of Hezbollah must be a peaceful process, achieved through national dialogue and not force. He has committed to putting all arms under state control but insists that the matter will be addressed in the context of a broader national security plan.

Many fear that attempting to enforce disarmament through force could lead Lebanon back into civil conflict, a scenario that Aoun has called a “red line.” Hezbollah, for its part, has indicated it’s open to discussions about its arsenal—but with key conditions. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem recently stated that any serious conversation would depend on Israel’s withdrawal from occupied Lebanese territories and the cessation of Israeli airstrikes.

“The Lebanese have to strike a delicate balance,” said Aram Nerguizian, a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He cautioned that pushing disarmament too quickly could alienate Hezbollah’s base, while waiting too long risks losing momentum and legitimacy.

The disarmament of Hezbollah would be a historic step. After Lebanon’s 15-year civil war ended in 1990, most militias were disbanded, except for Hezbollah, which had been granted special status as a resistance force fighting Israeli occupation in southern Lebanon.

President Aoun has proposed a gradual process for disarmament. He envisions former Hezbollah fighters being integrated into Lebanon’s military forces, with usable weapons incorporated into the army’s arsenal and unusable weapons destroyed. However, Nerguizian notes that most of Hezbollah’s heavy weapons — including missiles and drones — have already been destroyed, largely by Israeli airstrikes. The remaining weapons, however, are likely incompatible with the Lebanese army’s Western-supplied equipment, as Hezbollah’s weapons come from Iran, Russia, and China.

Incorporating Hezbollah’s tens of thousands of fighters into the Lebanese army poses another challenge. Their ideological alignment with Iran, and their paramilitary structure, makes integration complex. Retired Lebanese army General Hassan Jouni, however, believes that with proper training, former Hezbollah fighters could become part of Lebanon’s military, though he acknowledges that religious and ideological barriers may remain for some.

Hezbollah spokesman Ibrahim Mousawi has said that the group remains open to discussing disarmament but insists that the destruction of Hezbollah’s weapons should not be seen as a condition for Lebanon’s future security.

The question of when Hezbollah will disarm remains unclear. The U.S. and Israel continue to press for immediate action, but Hezbollah’s demands for Israeli withdrawal complicate matters. U.S. officials, including envoy Morgan Ortagus, have called for disarmament “as soon as possible,” but a Lebanese diplomat suggested that the U.S. has been slow to push Israel for a full withdrawal from southern Lebanon’s disputed territories.

While the U.S. has acknowledged the Israeli occupation of key border areas, pressure on Israel to leave those territories has been limited. According to Bilal Saab, a former Pentagon official, the smart approach to breaking the deadlock is for the U.S. to increase support for Lebanon’s army and simultaneously encourage Israel to vacate the disputed areas.

Retired General Elias Hanna believes that Hezbollah’s political and military clout is in decline, and that disarmament must happen as part of a broader strategic shift for Lebanon’s military. He suggests that Hezbollah’s experience in deterring Israel could be valuable to the Lebanese army, but only if the military can integrate those lessons into its future doctrine.

For now, the world waits. The path to disarmament is fraught with obstacles, but the consensus among analysts is clear: Hezbollah must either lay down its arms voluntarily, or they will be taken by force, most likely at Israel’s hand.

Hezbollah’s choices are narrowing, and the future of Lebanon’s security may depend on how quickly it can resolve this longstanding issue.

Source: AP News – Will a weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon disarm?

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In a significant escalation, Israel launched an airstrike on southern Beirut for the first time since the November 2024 ceasefire. The strike followed accusations from Israel that Hezbollah had fired two projectiles into its territory, an allegation Hezbollah has denied.

According to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the airstrike targeted a “terrorist infrastructure site used to store UAVs” by Hezbollah’s Aerial Unit (127) in Dahieh, a Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut. The IDF accused Hezbollah of embedding its military infrastructure within civilian areas, using Lebanese residents as human shields.

Prior to the airstrikes, the IDF issued evacuation orders to residents in a neighborhood in southern Beirut. “To everyone located in the building marked in red on the map, as well as the surrounding buildings: you are in close proximity to Hezbollah-affiliated facilities,” the IDF stated. “For your safety and the safety of your families, you must evacuate these buildings immediately and move at least 300 meters away.”

The Lebanese government responded by suspending classes in the affected area, directing students, teachers, and administrative staff to evacuate immediately.

Israel also conducted airstrikes on several locations in southern Lebanon, targeting what it described as “Hezbollah command centers, terrorist infrastructure sites, launchers, and terrorists.” One of these strikes hit Kfar Tebnit in Nabatiyeh, killing three people, including a woman, and injuring at least 18 others, among them six children and eight women, according to Lebanon’s Ministry of Health.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz convened for a security assessment following the attacks. Katz warned that Beirut would be “treated the same” as Kiryat Shmona in northern Israel, where the alleged Hezbollah rocket attack occurred.

“If there is no peace in Kiryat Shmona and the Galilee communities, there will be no peace in Beirut either,” Katz stated.

Netanyahu reinforced Israel’s stance, declaring, “We will attack everywhere in Lebanon against any threat to the state of Israel and ensure that all our residents in the north return to their homes safely.”

The Lebanese army reported finding a rocket launch site and launched an investigation into the attack’s origins. It condemned Israel’s actions as a “blatant and repeated violation of Lebanon’s sovereignty” and a “flagrant breach of the ceasefire agreement.”

Hezbollah, in a statement on its Telegram channel, accused Israel of fabricating “pretexts for the continuation of its aggression against Lebanon.”

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun stated that his government had contacted U.S. officials regarding the ceasefire agreement. “There is a ceasefire in place, and both sides are expected to respect the agreement,” Aoun emphasized.

Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have been rising in recent weeks, marking the most significant escalation since the November ceasefire that temporarily halted cross-border hostilities. Since then, Israel has conducted multiple strikes across southern Lebanon, citing Hezbollah targets.

On Thursday, the IDF struck several vehicles in southern Lebanon, claiming to target Hezbollah militants. Lebanese state media reported that at least six people were killed in those strikes.

The conflict stems from prolonged hostilities following the October 2023 Gaza war, during which Israel and Hezbollah engaged in cross-border attacks for over a year. In September 2024, Israel launched a large-scale military campaign against Hezbollah, killing over 2,500 people, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry.

While the November ceasefire significantly reduced hostilities, Israel continues to maintain a military presence in southern Lebanon, despite agreeing to withdraw under the ceasefire terms. The latest developments raise concerns about the fragility of the truce and the potential for a broader regional conflict.

Source: CNN – Israel strikes southern Beirut for the first time since November ceasefire

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Lebanon’s new president, Joseph Aoun, is a former army commander known for his low-profile, disciplined leadership. Unlike many in Lebanon’s fractured political system, Aoun has largely avoided partisan affiliations and political discussions, making him a unique figure in the country’s leadership.

Bilal Saab, a former Pentagon official and now senior managing director of TRENDS US consulting firm, describes Aoun as a “very sweet man, very compassionate, very warm.” Saab, who worked closely with Aoun during his tenure as army chief, emphasized that Aoun was fiercely nonpartisan and had little interest in media appearances or political maneuvering.

“He wanted to take care of business, and his only order of business was commanding the Lebanese army,” Saab noted. This trait, according to Saab, could be an advantage as president, as Aoun is less likely to demand political favors or engage in the transactional nature of Lebanese politics.

Aoun, 61, hails from Aichiye, a Christian village in southern Lebanon’s Jezzine province. He joined the Lebanese army as a cadet in 1983 during the country’s 15-year civil war. His military experience includes commanding the army’s 9th infantry brigade before being appointed army chief in March 2017.

Retired Brigadier General George Nader, who fought alongside Aoun during the 1990 Battle of Adma, recalled him as steady and focused, even in the face of significant bloodshed.

“The level of bloodshed was significant, and I remember Joseph was steady and focused,” Nader said.

Aoun’s tenure as army chief saw Lebanon through multiple crises, including:

• Battling Islamist militants: Aoun led the army’s offensive against Islamic State and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militants near the Syrian border.
• Navigating the 2019 mass protests: The Lebanese army played a key role in managing large-scale anti-government demonstrations.
• Responding to the 2020 Beirut port explosion: The military assisted in rescue efforts following the devastating blast.
• Handling the Israel-Hezbollah conflict: While largely staying on the sidelines, the Lebanese army suffered casualties from Israeli strikes and shelling.

As Lebanon’s economy collapsed in 2019, soldiers’ salaries plummeted to less than $100 per month. In a rare political statement, Aoun openly criticized the country’s leadership for inaction.

“What are you waiting for? What do you plan to do? We have warned more than once of the dangers of the situation,” he declared in a 2021 speech.

The United States and Qatar eventually stepped in to subsidize military salaries, helping prevent large-scale defections.

Ed Gabriel, president of the American Task Force on Lebanon, described Aoun as “very direct, very honest,” and a leader who inspired loyalty through hard work. He also highlighted Aoun’s deep religious faith, which he believes shapes his strong moral compass.

In his hometown, celebrations erupted after Aoun’s election, with fireworks, dancing, and people handing out sweets and whiskey.

Despite widespread support, Aoun’s election was not without controversy. Lebanon’s constitution bars a sitting army commander from becoming president, though this rule has been waived multiple times. Some lawmakers opposed bending the rules again.

Moreover, his election was seen by some as influenced by external powers, particularly the United States and Saudi Arabia. Hezbollah’s ongoing conflict with Israel had weakened the militant group, leading to increased international involvement in Lebanon’s political landscape.

Independent lawmaker Halima Kaakour criticized the election process, stating, “We cannot justify violating the constitution.” She also accused foreign powers of interference, saying, “No one should interfere in our internal affairs.”

Saab, the analyst, acknowledged that no Lebanese president or prime minister is completely independent of foreign influence. However, he argued that Aoun is far from a puppet of Washington.

“The entire country is heavily penetrated and vulnerable to international powers,” Saab explained. “But if you compare him to Hezbollah’s leadership, which is fully subservient to Iran, then no, he’s not that guy when it comes to the Americans.”

Aoun faces immense challenges as Lebanon’s new president, including economic turmoil, political fragmentation, and ongoing regional tensions. His nonpartisan approach and military background could help him navigate these challenges, but only time will tell how his presidency will shape Lebanon’s future.

Source: AP News – Who is Joseph Aoun, a low-profile army chief who is now Lebanon’s president?

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Hezbollah launched projectiles into a disputed border area controlled by Israel on Monday, marking the group’s first attack since a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah began last week. The strike follows accusations from Lebanon that Israel has violated the ceasefire more than 50 times in recent days.

The Israeli military reported that two projectiles were fired toward Mount Dov, also known as the Shebaa Farms, an area where the borders of Lebanon, Syria, and Israel meet. Israel stated that the projectiles landed in open areas and caused no injuries.

Hezbollah, in a statement, described the attack as a “defensive and warning response” to what it called Israel’s “repeated violations” of the ceasefire. The group added that its attempts to alert mediators about these violations were unsuccessful in stopping them.

The ceasefire, brokered by the United States and France, took effect on Wednesday and is meant to halt fighting for 60 days, ending more than a year of clashes between Hezbollah and Israel. However, since the truce began, Israel has carried out several strikes in Lebanon. On Monday, a drone strike killed a man riding a motorcycle in southern Lebanon, and another drone attack hit a Lebanese army bulldozer in the town of Hermel, injuring a soldier. The Lebanese army had previously stayed neutral in the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel.

Israel has claimed the strikes are retaliatory actions in response to Hezbollah’s violations of the ceasefire, although it has not provided specifics on these violations.

Under the ceasefire agreement, both sides are expected to pull back from southern Lebanon. Hezbollah is to retreat north of the Litani River, about 30 kilometers from the Israeli-Lebanese border. However, the site of Monday’s drone strike, targeting the Lebanese army bulldozer, was located far north of the Litani River. On Saturday, airstrikes in Lebanon’s Marjayoun province killed two people, according to Lebanese state media.

Lebanon’s parliament speaker, Nabih Berri, accused Israel on Monday of breaching the ceasefire 54 times. He cited incidents such as the demolition of homes in border villages, continuous overflights by Israeli reconnaissance drones, and airstrikes that have caused casualties.

Berri called for immediate action to stop these “flagrant violations.” The United States and France are overseeing the ceasefire’s implementation, but Israel has maintained that it reserves the right to respond to violations of the agreement.

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BEIRUT (AP) — On Sunday, Hezbollah fired at least 185 rockets and other projectiles into Israel, marking its heaviest attack in days. The barrage wounded seven people and came in response to deadly Israeli airstrikes on Beirut, even as efforts to negotiate a cease-fire continued.

An Israeli airstrike also hit a Lebanese army center on the southwestern coastal road between Tyre and Naqoura, killing one soldier and wounding 18 others, according to Lebanon’s military. Israel expressed regret for the incident, stating the strike occurred in an area of combat with Hezbollah and was not intended to target Lebanese forces. The incident is under investigation.

Since the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah began, Israeli strikes have killed over 40 Lebanese soldiers, despite Lebanon’s military largely remaining on the sidelines of the fighting.

Lebanon’s Reaction

Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati condemned the strike on the Lebanese army as a direct blow to U.S.-led cease-fire efforts. He described it as a “bloody message rejecting all ongoing attempts” to end the war.

Hezbollah’s Attacks and Israeli Retaliation

Hezbollah’s attacks, including rockets, missiles, and drones, began after the October 7, 2023, Hamas assault from Gaza. The group claims these actions are acts of solidarity with Palestinians and Hamas, both of which are supported by Iran.

Israel has launched numerous retaliatory strikes, including significant attacks in September that escalated the conflict into full-scale war. These strikes killed Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah and several senior commanders.

On Sunday, some of Hezbollah’s projectiles were intercepted by Israel’s defense systems, but others caused injuries and damage:

• A 60-year-old man in northern Israel was severely injured.
• A 23-year-old man in Petah Tikva suffered minor wounds.
• A 70-year-old woman in the same city suffered smoke inhalation when her car caught fire.
• A rocket strike in Haifa hit a residential building, leaving it at risk of collapse.

Israeli sirens sounded throughout central and northern regions as new attacks unfolded.

Impact of Israeli Airstrikes on Lebanon

Israeli airstrikes without prior warning on Saturday hit central Beirut, killing at least 29 people and wounding 67, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. On Sunday, smoke rose again over Beirut as new strikes targeted Hezbollah command centers in the southern Dahiyeh suburb.

The ongoing conflict has devastated Lebanon:

• Over 3,700 deaths and more than 1.2 million displaced, about a quarter of the population, according to the Health Ministry.
• On the Israeli side, approximately 90 soldiers and nearly 50 civilians have been killed since the conflict began. Around 60,000 Israelis have been displaced from northern areas.

International Efforts to Broker Peace

U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein has spent months attempting to mediate a cease-fire, while the European Union’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, urged both sides on Sunday to finalize an agreement.

Borrell met with Lebanese leaders, including Prime Minister Mikati and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally. The EU has pledged €200 million ($208 million) to support Lebanon’s military, which could deploy additional forces to the south if a truce is reached.

An emerging agreement would align with a U.N. Security Council resolution from 2006, requiring Hezbollah and Israeli forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon below the Litani River. The Lebanese army, supported by U.N. peacekeepers, would patrol the area.

Despite its symbolic role as a unifying national institution, Lebanon’s military lacks the capacity to confront Hezbollah or deter Israeli military actions. As the conflict escalates, the international community continues to press for a resolution to prevent further devastation.

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