The deadline for initiating talks on extending the Gaza ceasefire came and went on Monday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington, leaving the next steps for the fragile truce uncertain. The ceasefire, which has been in effect for just over two weeks, is set to expire on March 1. Under the terms of the agreement, negotiations for the next phase were meant to begin by Monday, but as of now, there’s no word from Netanyahu’s office on when or if a negotiating team will meet with Hamas.

Missing Negotiators: No Team Yet to Meet Hamas

As of Monday, the Israeli government has not publicly named a negotiating team for the upcoming talks. Meanwhile, Hamas, which has been silent on the deadline, has sent its own delegation to Qatar and Egypt this week. Qatar’s Prime Minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, who has acted as a mediator in past negotiations, acknowledged the uncertainty, stating on Sunday that there were “no clear details” on when talks might begin. He added that they hoped to see progress in the coming days.

Netanyahu’s Focus Shifts to Washington

Rather than engaging directly with Hamas, Netanyahu’s attention seems focused on Washington. The Israeli Prime Minister is set to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump this week, marking him as the first foreign leader to meet Trump officially since the latter took office. Netanyahu’s office announced that he and Trump’s Middle East envoy had agreed that discussions on the second phase of the hostage deal would begin with their meeting in Washington, where they would outline Israel’s positions.

Ceasefire Details: A Fragile Pause

The current ceasefire, which began on January 19, has led to the release of 18 hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Israel releasing 583 Palestinians, including some serving life sentences and children held without trial. Israeli forces have withdrawn from Gaza’s population centers, humanitarian aid has flowed into the enclave, and the Rafah border crossing with Egypt has reopened for the first time since May 2023 for the evacuation of injured and sick Palestinians.

Despite a few violations, the ceasefire has largely held—representing the second major pause in the conflict in 15 months. However, the ceasefire was always intended to last just 42 days, meaning the next phase of talks should have started by Monday. Netanyahu’s delay in addressing Hamas directly has raised concerns that Israel is breaching the terms of the deal.

Next Phase: Full Withdrawal and More Hostage Exchanges

The second phase of the truce, which CNN understands would involve a complete withdrawal of Israeli military forces from Gaza and the release of all remaining hostages (both soldiers and civilians), is at the heart of these stalled negotiations. More Palestinian prisoners would be released in exchange for the hostages, a crucial part of the deal yet to be addressed.

Tensions Within the Israeli Government

Netanyahu’s delay in moving forward with talks has sparked criticism, including from veteran Israeli negotiator and peace activist Gershon Baskin. Baskin pointed out that Netanyahu’s refusal to engage with Hamas on time constitutes a violation of the ceasefire agreement and risks endangering the hostages.

At the same time, Netanyahu is under pressure from within his own government. U.S. President Trump, who has been credited with facilitating the current ceasefire, has also advocated for the forced migration of Gaza’s 2 million residents. This controversial stance aligns with the views of far-right ministers in Netanyahu’s coalition. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has supported the idea of encouraging Palestinian migration out of Gaza, claiming it would alleviate suffering and bring security to Israel. Smotrich, who previously opposed the 2005 Gaza withdrawal, has threatened to withdraw from the government if Israel does not renew its offensive in Gaza after the current ceasefire phase ends.

Growing Political Fractures

The ceasefire has already caused fractures within the Israeli government. Far-right Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir pulled his party from the coalition, denouncing the ceasefire as a capitulation. Smotrich has made similar threats, further complicating Netanyahu’s political calculus as he navigates these delicate negotiations.

In sum, the truce’s future is hanging in the balance as Netanyahu prioritizes his discussions with Trump over direct negotiations with Hamas, leaving many questions unanswered about the next phase of the fragile ceasefire. The coming days will be critical in determining whether the ceasefire holds, whether hostages are freed, and whether Israel’s internal political tensions escalate further.

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Hamas is anticipated to release 33 hostages during the first phase of a ceasefire agreement currently being finalized in Doha, Israeli officials have reported. This development offers the first significant indication of progress toward ending the protracted Israel-Hamas conflict, which has persisted for 15 months and destabilized the region.

Highlights of the Emerging Agreement

• Hostages and Ceasefire: The deal, if finalized, would halt the fighting, enable the return of dozens of hostages, and significantly expand humanitarian aid to Gaza. This would mark a critical turning point since Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, during which 251 hostages were taken.
• Hostage Numbers: Hamas and its allies currently hold 94 of the initial hostages, with at least 34 confirmed dead. Most of the 33 hostages expected to be released are believed to be alive, but some bodies may also be returned.
• Timeline: The first phase is set to unfold during a 42-day ceasefire period, with negotiations for the next phase commencing on the 16th day.

Global Reactions and Progress

• US Leadership Involvement: President Joe Biden expressed optimism about the deal, emphasizing its potential to secure hostages’ release, halt fighting, and deliver vital humanitarian aid. Former President-elect Donald Trump also commented, citing progress in the negotiations.
• Diplomatic Efforts: A final round of proximity talks is scheduled in Doha, with key players including Mossad Director David Barnea and negotiators from Hamas, mediated by Qatari officials.

Proposed Terms

• Military Presence: Israeli forces will maintain control along the Philadelphi Corridor and a buffer zone within Gaza, sparking some contention over the width and terms of this zone.
• Prisoner Releases: Palestinian prisoners involved in attacks on Israelis will be relocated to Gaza or third countries, rather than the West Bank.
• Return of Displaced Residents: Northern Gaza residents will be permitted to return under “security arrangements” yet to be detailed.

Challenges Ahead

A senior Israeli official noted a breakthrough in the talks but warned that the deal still requires approval from Israel’s security and full government cabinets. There may also be potential Supreme Court petitions from opponents of the agreement.

Concerns About Stability

Former Israeli intelligence official Avi Melamed cautioned that the continued presence of both Israeli forces and Hamas during the ceasefire phase could lead to renewed hostilities. He highlighted the delicate balance needed to prevent flare-ups during the transition.

The Human Toll

The conflict has claimed devastating human lives. Since October 7, 2023, the Israeli military reports approximately 1,200 Israeli deaths. Meanwhile, the Palestinian Ministry of Health estimates over 46,565 Palestinians have been killed, with more than 100,000 injured in Gaza.

A Glimmer of Hope

Despite the fragile nature of the negotiations, the Hostages and Missing Families Forum expressed cautious optimism. “We trust in those working tirelessly to bring our loved ones home and will not rest until the last hostage returns,” the group stated.

The coming days will be pivotal as negotiators in Doha work to finalize terms, raising the possibility of a truce and a gradual end to the devastating conflict.

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