As the geopolitical landscape grows increasingly tense, European nations are ramping up their efforts to prepare citizens for the possibility of conflict. From survival guides to evacuation drills, these countries are taking steps to ensure their populations are ready for what could come next. But, the big question remains: Will people listen and take these warnings seriously?

In recent months, several European governments have rolled out sobering guidance, urging citizens to rethink their mindset and brace for potential conflict. This shift in focus aims to ensure Europe is ready for a worst-case scenario, especially in light of growing tensions with Russia.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte underscored the urgency, stating at a security conference in Brussels in December: “It is time to shift to a wartime mindset.” The message is clear: Europe must prepare for conflict and take steps toward resilience, especially as the threat from Russia continues to loom large.

European nations have begun offering practical advice to their citizens, from stockpiling supplies to creating emergency shelters. The European Commission has advised citizens to stockpile food and essentials for at least 72 hours in case of a crisis. This guidance, released in March, emphasizes the need for “preparedness” and “resilience,” crucial elements in navigating a potential war scenario.

Individual countries have taken additional steps to prepare their populations:

• Germany: Last June, Germany updated its Framework Directive for Overall Defense, outlining procedures for citizens in the event of conflict. The document envisions a major transformation in daily life, with citizens expected to adapt to wartime conditions.
• Sweden: Sweden has been particularly proactive, distributing millions of copies of an updated survival guide titled “If Crisis or War Comes.” The pamphlet provides step-by-step instructions on how to protect oneself, including going indoors, closing all windows and doors, and seeking shelter in underground spaces. Specific advice on how to survive nuclear attacks, manage anxiety, and even communicate with children during a crisis is also included.
• Finland: With its long border with Russia, Finland has long been focused on its defense. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Finland has increased its preparedness efforts. The Finnish government boasts over 50,000 emergency shelters that could accommodate nearly 5 million people. Additionally, the country has issued updated guidance on how to prepare for disruptions in power, water, and telecommunications.

Despite these efforts, there’s no guarantee that citizens will embrace the preparedness plans. Claudia Major, a senior vice president at the German Marshall Fund, emphasizes the importance of these plans, not just in response to direct military threats but also to the “grey zone” between war and peace. This “grey zone” encompasses hybrid warfare and lower levels of aggression, which could destabilize nations without a full-scale conflict.

However, Major also notes the challenge of balancing preparedness with the risk of causing unnecessary panic. “We want people to be aware, we don’t want them to be freaked out,” she explains.

In countries with a historical memory of Russian aggression—such as Finland and the Baltic states—the threat is seen as more immediate and real. These nations have long understood the risks of Russian expansionism, and citizens are more likely to take the advice seriously. Major points out that these countries have learned from history and know they must be self-reliant.

On the other hand, nations like Portugal, Italy, and the United Kingdom may not feel the same urgency. Major highlights how Italy, for instance, is more concerned with threats from terrorism and instability in the Mediterranean region, while the UK, an island nation, has not faced a foreign invasion in centuries.

“The question is how do you change the DNA of a country?” Major asks, emphasizing that the real challenge may lie in convincing those less affected by the threat to take the necessary precautions.

Europe’s modern guidance on wartime preparedness isn’t without its challenges. Historical attempts at preparing civilians during times of crisis have been met with mixed results. A notable example is the UK’s “Protect and Survive” campaign, which ran from 1974 to 1980. The campaign aimed to prepare citizens for a nuclear attack, offering advice like how to create a fallout shelter in your home. While well-meaning, the campaign was often criticized for offering unrealistic advice, and it was even parodied in British media.

While the “Protect and Survive” campaign was mocked in popular culture, many experts believe that modern-day guidance—such as Sweden’s survival pamphlet and Finland’s extensive emergency preparedness efforts—is more realistic and takes into account the psychological impact of a crisis.

Claudia Major argues that preparing for conflict in today’s “grey zone” is crucial. She stresses that deterrence, defense, and societal resilience are essential components of modern security strategies. If European citizens are not ready and willing to support their nations in times of crisis, the continent’s ability to prevail in a war scenario could be severely compromised.

“Society must be prepared, not just militarily, but emotionally and psychologically,” she says. “If the society is not willing and not ready to support a war like the Ukrainian society is doing at the moment, we will not prevail.”

Europe is clearly taking significant steps to prepare for the possibility of war. However, the ultimate success of these plans depends on whether citizens truly internalize and act upon the advice. As tensions with Russia continue to escalate, the need for a united and resilient population becomes even more apparent. The challenge now is ensuring that Europe’s citizens are not just informed but also motivated to take action, should the worst come to pass.

The question remains: Will Europe’s civilians heed the call to prepare for the unthinkable, or will they remain unready in the face of an ever-growing threat?

Source: CNN – Europe wants to ready its citizens for war. Will they listen?

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A Shocking Shift in US Policy

The past week has left Europe’s leaders reeling from an unexpected crisis: the abrupt collapse of American support for Ukraine. Many are struggling to comprehend why U.S. President Donald Trump has turned against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, echoing Kremlin-style disinformation with alarming intensity.

European officials, sidelined from recent Russia-U.S. talks, remain in the dark about Washington’s next moves. They don’t know when, or if, the U.S. will present Kyiv with a proposed peace deal—or worse, abandon Ukraine entirely. The uncertainty has thrown Europe into a state of shock.

“The way in which this was delivered—blow after blow within days—was a real shock for the continent,” said Armida van Rij, a senior research fellow at Chatham House.

Scrambling for a Response

In the wake of this geopolitical earthquake, European politicians are scrambling to formulate a response. A crisis summit in Paris sparked bold but uncoordinated proposals: increased defense spending, a peacekeeping force, and additional military aid. However, these efforts lack cohesion.

While Europe struggles for direction, a striking contrast has emerged: the U.S. and Russia, once bitter rivals, now appear disturbingly aligned, dismissing Ukraine’s demands and negotiating over its future with little European input.

Some experts believe that a strong leader could unite Europe and bridge the growing divide between Kyiv and Washington. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have emerged as potential figureheads. Both are set to visit Washington next week, their trips now carrying immense significance.

Yet, Europe is historically divided on defense, and its leaders are preoccupied with domestic crises. There is also the delicate question of how—or even if—to challenge Trump. Any misstep could risk further alienation, playing directly into Moscow’s hands.

A Staggering Betrayal

While European leaders expected Trump to be less committed to Ukraine than the Biden administration, they were unprepared for such a swift and total reversal.

The sight of a U.S. president blaming an ally for its own invasion sent shockwaves across the continent. The response from European leaders was unified condemnation—emotionally charged and deeply personal.

But should they really have been surprised? Trump and his advisors have long hinted at an indifference toward Ukraine’s sovereignty, making a drastic shift in policy seem inevitable.

From the moment Trump won the election, “European heads of government should have been getting together … to figure out what the European plan was going to be,” van Rij noted. “But that hasn’t really happened.” Instead, Europe waited—until it was too late.

Boots on the Ground: A Risky Proposal

With U.S. support in question, Europe faces two possible futures: one with a peace deal, and one without. Either scenario will demand European leadership, as the Trump administration prioritizes the Indo-Pacific and domestic concerns over Ukraine.

This week, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer made a bold move, signaling Britain’s willingness to deploy troops as peacekeepers in Ukraine. Western officials estimate the force would include fewer than 30,000 troops, primarily focused on securing infrastructure and restoring confidence in Kyiv.

France, which first proposed a peacekeeping force last year but faced European resistance, is now backing the plan. However, success hinges on U.S. support—specifically, an American military “backstop,” likely in the form of air power controlled from a NATO base, such as in Poland.

Starmer and Macron are expected to present this plan to Trump in Washington next week.

Key Challenges and Military Readiness

The proposal raises pressing concerns:

• If NATO troops in Ukraine were attacked by Russia, how would the alliance respond?
• Can Europe sustain such an operation without American military superiority?
• Will European leaders unite behind the plan, or will divisions weaken its effectiveness?

For Britain, the challenge is particularly acute. The UK military, weakened by decades of cuts, may struggle to meet the demands of an expanded European defense role.

“The British Army is suffering from the cumulative effects of 40 years of decline,” said defense analyst Nicholas Drummond.

Even within the UK government, doubts persist. A Labour MP admitted: “We can cope, but we are in dire need of investment for the modern battlefield.” The UK has committed to increasing defense spending from 2.3% to 2.5% of GDP, but whether that will be enough remains uncertain.

A Divided Europe Faces Tough Choices

Deploying troops to Ukraine is not a universally welcomed idea. Poland—home to NATO’s largest European military—is hesitant, fearing that such a move could provoke further Russian aggression and make its own borders more vulnerable.

Should a smaller coalition of European nations move forward without full NATO backing, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk will likely demand a seat at the table. His concerns are justified: while Poland has invested heavily in defense, countries like Germany lag behind.

Germany’s Dilemma

Germany, Europe’s economic powerhouse, has been slow to embrace military leadership. Military spending remains at just 1.5% of GDP—far below NATO’s 2% target. Friedrich Merz, the likely incoming chancellor, has called for increased defense investment but has stopped short of concrete commitments.

Germany’s historically close economic ties with Russia further complicate its role. Berlin has long faced criticism—especially from Poland—for its reluctance to sever economic links with Moscow. Now, with its influence on European defense weakened, Germany may struggle to assert itself in the crisis.

What if Ukraine Rejects a U.S.-Russia Peace Deal?

An even more troubling scenario looms: What if Washington and Moscow reach an agreement that Ukraine refuses to accept?

If Zelensky rejects a U.S.-brokered peace deal, Europe will be forced to decide whether to support Ukraine in continuing a war with no clear end.

That would require more than words—it would demand a significant increase in military aid.

Western officials estimate that Kyiv has received enough weapons to last through the summer.

“Biden got a lot of kit in before the inauguration. Kit is still going in,” one official said. But losing American military contributions would be devastating. “There is a difference in quality between America’s supplies and Europe’s,” the official added.

A Painful Breakup with America

Sorting through the wreckage of this crisis will be a difficult and painful process. For decades, Europe has relied on the U.S. for security. Now, that relationship is fracturing.

“The U.S. is walking away from 70 years of cooperation,” a British lawmaker warned. “It remains a key pillar of NATO, and I hope it will stand through time—but it must remain clear-eyed about its adversaries and its allies.”

Europe must now confront an unsettling reality: it may have to defend Ukraine—and itself—without its closest ally.

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