Massive Infrastructure Growth Since 2020

Satellite analysis shows that more than 60% of 136 facilities connected to China’s missile programs or the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) have undergone significant construction or expansion since 2020. Collectively, these developments amount to over 21 million square feet of new floor space, transforming once-rural areas into vast military-industrial complexes.

Many of these sites — ranging from research centers and testing zones to full-scale production factories — now feature new towers, bunkers, and blast walls. In some images, partially assembled missile components can be seen on tarmacs, underlining the pace and scope of China’s build-up.

“This is China positioning itself as a global superpower,” said William Alberque, a senior adjunct fellow at the Pacific Forum and former NATO director of arms control. “We’re witnessing the early stages of a new arms race.”

Xi Jinping’s Vision for a World-Class Military

Since assuming power in 2012, Chinese President Xi Jinping has directed enormous resources toward transforming the People’s Liberation Army into what he calls a “world-class” fighting force. The PLARF, which oversees China’s growing nuclear and ballistic missile stockpile, has become central to Beijing’s defense doctrine. Xi has described the force as the “core of strategic deterrence” and a “cornerstone of national security.”

China’s missile facilities now supply nearly all branches of the country’s armed forces, the largest in the world with more than two million active personnel. According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China’s nuclear arsenal has expanded by roughly 100 new warheads annually since 2023 — the fastest growth rate among nuclear-armed nations — though it remains far smaller than the arsenals of the United States and Russia.

Rising Global Tensions and US Policy Shifts

The expansion comes as Washington grapples with supply chain bottlenecks and defense production challenges. The United States has recently faced shortages of key missile defense systems after deploying sophisticated interceptors to aid Ukraine and Israel. CNN reported that by mid-2025, about 25% of US THAAD interceptors had been used in defense operations, prompting the Pentagon to boost contracts with Lockheed Martin by more than $2 billion to replenish supplies.

While the US remains militarily dominant, analysts warn that China’s rapid production growth could eventually narrow the technological and numerical gap. “Beijing is not just catching up; it’s building for sustained parity,” said Alberque. “They’re sprinting now, but planning for a marathon.”

Accelerated Expansion Following Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Analysts suggest that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 served as a catalyst for China’s missile buildup. CNN’s geospatial analysis indicates that the pace of expansion at Chinese missile sites nearly doubled in the two years following the outbreak of the war. Observers believe Beijing has closely studied the conflict to refine its own strategic calculations.

“They’re watching Ukraine incredibly closely,” said Alberque. “China is learning how modern wars are fought — from drone swarms to precision missile strikes — and adapting those lessons for future conflicts.”

Strategic Focus on Taiwan and Regional Deterrence

Experts say the surge in missile production could be tied to potential military operations involving Taiwan, the self-governed island that Beijing claims as its territory. The new missiles are believed to play a vital role in China’s “anti-access/area-denial” (A2/AD) strategy — a plan to deter or delay US intervention in any Taiwan conflict by threatening US bases and naval forces in the region.

“The PLA wants to set the conditions for an invasion of Taiwan,” said Decker Eveleth, a research analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses. “That means targeting ports, bases, and supply hubs that could support US or allied operations.”

Inside the New Missile Complexes

CNN identified 99 industrial sites linked to missile production and another 37 PLARF bases. Of these, 65 manufacturing facilities and 22 bases showed significant new construction since 2020. Much of this growth centers around the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) and the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC), both state-owned conglomerates that dominate the country’s defense sector.

In one example, a CASC subsidiary in Shaanxi province — known for its solid-fuel rocket programs — was found to be developing a new facility surrounded by blast walls, a common safety feature in weapons manufacturing. Another site in Beijing expanded by nearly 50% and is associated with the DF-26 medium-range ballistic missile, often dubbed the “Guam killer” for its potential to strike US bases in the Pacific.

A variant of this missile, the DF-26D equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle, was showcased at a 2025 military parade, signaling China’s ambitions in next-generation weapons technology.

Budget Expansion and Transparency Concerns

In 2025, Beijing approved a 7.2% increase in its defense budget — the fourth consecutive year of growth above 7% — bringing official military spending to about $245 billion. Western analysts, however, believe China’s actual expenditures are significantly higher due to opaque accounting and classified programs.

Meanwhile, a sweeping anti-corruption campaign within the PLA has resulted in the dismissal of several senior officers linked to the Rocket Force, including two former defense ministers. The campaign, analysts say, reflects both an effort to tighten control and concerns about the force’s operational readiness.

A Growing Global Security Challenge

Arms control experts warn that China’s expansion is reshaping the global balance of power and complicating efforts to negotiate new nuclear or conventional weapons agreements. “We are already in a new cold war,” said David Santoro, president of the Pacific Forum. “The danger is that it could escalate into open conflict.”

As China deepens its strategic capabilities and the US confronts production strains, global security analysts are calling for renewed diplomatic engagement to prevent further escalation. For now, the world’s major powers appear to be on diverging paths — with China expanding its arsenal, the US struggling to replenish its stockpiles, and the arms race intensifying once again across the Pacific.

Source: CNN – ‘A new arms race’: Satellite images, maps and records reveal huge surge in China’s missile production sites

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The growing tensions between India and Pakistan may be giving the world its first close look at how Chinese-made weapons stack up against Western military technology — and investors in Chinese defense companies are already reacting.

Chinese Jets in the Spotlight

Pakistan claims it used Chinese-made J-10C fighter jets to shoot down multiple Indian warplanes, including advanced French-made Rafales, during a dramatic air battle earlier this week. While India has yet to confirm any losses, the allegation has electrified Chinese defense enthusiasts — and markets. Shares of China’s AVIC Chengdu Aircraft surged over 40% this week following the claims.

Though Beijing has remained tight-lipped, China, Pakistan’s top arms supplier, is undoubtedly watching events closely. A real-world test of its military exports could influence its global standing as a weapons provider.

A Test Decades in the Making

China hasn’t fought a major war in more than 40 years, but under Xi Jinping, it has poured billions into modernizing its military. Pakistan, long considered China’s closest ally, has been a major recipient of this new wave of military support.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China accounted for 81% of Pakistan’s arms imports in the last five years. These exports include everything from fighter jets and missiles to air-defense systems and surveillance radars — many developed jointly with Pakistani firms.

“This is more than a regional clash,” said Craig Singleton, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “It’s a live demonstration of how Chinese defense exports are reshaping power dynamics in South Asia.”

China vs. the West by Proxy

The conflict is increasingly being viewed as a proxy showdown between Chinese and Western arms. India has been moving closer to the United States and its allies, buying advanced equipment from France, Israel, and the U.S., while cutting back on its reliance on Russian hardware.

Meanwhile, Pakistan has turned almost entirely to China, ending its purchase of American weapons. The shift came after the U.S. cut military aid over concerns about terrorism and nuclear proliferation.

“China stepped into the vacuum the U.S. left behind,” said Siemon Wezeman, senior researcher at SIPRI. “It’s now Pakistan’s only reliable arms partner.”

The Aerial Clash: What We Know

According to Pakistani sources, 125 aircraft were involved in a large-scale aerial engagement on Wednesday. Pakistan claims its J-10C jets downed five Indian fighters — including three Rafales — at distances of over 100 miles.

India hasn’t commented on the claims, but a French defense source confirmed the loss of at least one Rafale jet, raising questions about the effectiveness of Chinese technology in modern warfare.

“If confirmed, it suggests Pakistan’s Chinese-supplied arsenal is more than holding its own against Western systems,” said defense analyst Bilal Khan of the Quwa Group.

Boost for Beijing’s Arms Industry

For China, the implications are significant. The J-10C, now Pakistan’s most advanced fighter alongside the JF-17 Block III, features modern avionics and radar systems. It’s considered a 4.5-generation fighter, comparable to the Rafale, though not quite at the level of stealth jets like the U.S. F-35 or China’s J-20.

Pakistan’s J-10CEs are reportedly paired with PL-15 air-to-air missiles, which have a range that rivals — or even exceeds — Western counterparts. This could explain how Pakistan was able to strike targets at long distances.

“If these results are true, it’s a powerful advertisement for China’s defense industry,” said Antony Wong, a military analyst based in Macau. “This could reshape the global arms market.”

Shares in AVIC Chengdu soared again on Thursday, fueled by speculation and nationalist pride on Chinese social media.

A Broader Power Struggle

This isn’t just about jets and missiles. It reflects a deeper strategic realignment. India and Pakistan have fought multiple wars since 1947, but today’s rivalry is unfolding in a new global context — one shaped by U.S.-China competition.

India, traditionally nonaligned, is now a central player in the U.S. strategy to counterbalance China. Meanwhile, Pakistan is fully integrated into China’s geopolitical orbit, including its Belt and Road Initiative.

“This is a proxy clash between two spheres of influence,” said Salman Ali Bettani, an international relations scholar in Islamabad.

Not All Victories Are Clear

Still, experts warn against jumping to conclusions. India’s losses, if real, could be the result of poor planning, bad intel, or conservative rules of engagement — not necessarily superior Chinese technology.

Fabian Hoffman, a researcher at the University of Oslo, pointed out that Indian aircraft may have underestimated the range of Pakistan’s PL-15 missiles or failed to respond effectively due to restrictive engagement protocols.

Meanwhile, India’s missile strikes reportedly hit multiple Pakistani targets — despite China-supplied air defenses — raising doubts about the reliability of those systems.

“If Chinese radar and missile systems failed to prevent Indian strikes, that’s not great PR for Beijing’s arms industry,” said Sajjan Gohel, a London-based defense expert.

What Happens Next?

Whether or not China’s weaponry outperformed Western hardware, the world is watching closely. The stakes are high not just for South Asia, but for China’s ambitions to become a top-tier global arms exporter.

With Russia’s role diminished due to its war in Ukraine, China is eager to expand into former Russian markets in Africa and the Middle East.

If Pakistan’s Chinese-made jets truly delivered a decisive performance, it could change how nations from Algeria to Iraq view their next weapons purchase.

For now, the India-Pakistan conflict is no longer just a regional issue — it’s become a proving ground for China’s rise as a global military power.

Source: CNN – China has spent billions developing military tech. Conflict between India and Pakistan could be its first major test

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The US Widens Its Lead as the World’s Largest Arms Exporter

The United States has solidified its position as the world’s largest arms exporter, increasing its share of global weapons sales and shifting its primary customer base from the Middle East to Europe.

According to new data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the US accounted for 43% of global arms exports between 2020 and 2024—more than four times the share of France, the second-largest exporter. This marks a significant increase from the 35% share the US held between 2015 and 2019.

Europe’s Growing Dependence on US Weapons

Over the past decade, Europe has increasingly relied on US-made weaponry to strengthen its defenses, particularly in response to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The SIPRI report highlights that:

• Nearly two-thirds of the arms imported by European NATO members in the past five years were American-made—up from just over half in the previous period.
• For the first time in two decades, the majority of US arms exports were destined for Europe rather than the Middle East.
• Ukraine has been a major recipient of US military aid, further cementing Europe’s reliance on American defense supplies.

Shifting US-EU Relations on Security and Defense

While Europe’s reliance on US military aid has deepened, recent US policy shifts suggest Washington is encouraging greater European defense independence.

• US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently urged Europe to take greater responsibility for its own security, stating that the US “will no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship which encourages dependency.”
• The Trump administration held direct talks with Moscow regarding an end to the war in Ukraine—without including European or Ukrainian officials in the discussions.

Europe’s Response: Boosting Defense Spending

Faced with growing uncertainty about long-term US military support, European nations are preparing to invest heavily in expanding their own weapons production:

• NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has called for Europe’s military spending to surpass 3% of GDP, compared to the current 1.9%.
• On Thursday, all 27 EU member states approved proposals that could unlock billions of euros for defense investments.
• EU leaders are considering a proposal from the bloc’s executive that would provide countries with up to €150 billion ($163 billion) in loans for defense expansion.

The Future of European Defense

As the US signals a shift in its security commitments, Europe is being pushed to develop a more self-sufficient defense strategy. While US arms sales to European allies remain strong, the continent is taking steps toward reducing its reliance on American military aid and bolstering its own defense production.

Source

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