Russia’s Middle East Worries Grow as Iran-Israel Conflict Escalates

As Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, Russian officials quickly called the escalating conflict in the Middle East “alarming” and “dangerous.” Yet, Russian media also rushed to highlight what they saw as potential upsides for Moscow amid the turmoil.

What Russia Sees as Potential Gains

For starters, the conflict is driving global oil prices up, which could significantly boost Russia’s revenue — a welcome economic relief amid ongoing Western sanctions.

At the same time, the drama in the Middle East is pulling international attention away from Russia’s war in Ukraine. One Russian newspaper bluntly summed it up with the headline: “Kyiv has been forgotten.”

And if Russia’s offer to mediate the conflict is accepted, Moscow could boost its image as a key Middle East powerbroker and peacekeeper, despite global criticism over its actions in Ukraine.

But There’s a Bigger Risk: What Russia Could Lose

However, as the Israeli military operation continues, a sobering reality is setting in: Russia stands to lose more than it gains.

Russian political analyst Andrei Kortunov told business daily Kommersant on Monday,
“The escalation carries serious risks for Moscow. Russia failed to prevent Israel’s massive strike on Iran — a country it signed a strategic partnership with just five months ago.”

Kortunov added,
“Moscow isn’t prepared to move beyond political condemnation of Israel, nor to provide military aid to Iran.”

That’s because the recent Russian-Iranian strategic partnership signed by President Vladimir Putin and Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian is not a military alliance. It does not require Russia to defend Tehran militarily, despite rhetoric about strengthening cooperation in regional and global security.

Losing Ground in the Middle East

In fact, Russia’s influence in the region has already taken a hit this year. After Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was ousted last December, Russia offered him asylum — a clear sign of shifting power dynamics.

The prospect of a regime change in Iran now threatens to cost Russia another key ally in the Middle East, heightening Kremlin concerns.

Reflecting on these shifts, Moskovsky Komsomolets summed it up starkly on Tuesday:
“Massive changes are happening in global politics in real time, which will impact Russia directly or indirectly.”

Looking Ahead: Putin’s International Economic Forum

This week, Putin will be in St. Petersburg for the annual International Economic Forum, once hailed as “Russia’s Davos.”

Though the event no longer draws top Western CEOs—many have stayed away due to the Ukraine war—organizers say delegates from more than 140 countries and territories are expected.

While the forum focuses on economics, geopolitical undercurrents will be impossible to ignore. Russian authorities will likely use the occasion to claim that efforts to isolate Russia over the Ukraine conflict have failed.

We’ll be watching closely for any remarks from Putin on the Middle East crisis and the ongoing war in Ukraine.