Published: August 8, 2025, 14:30 (U.S. Eastern Time)

Former President Donald Trump held an unscheduled press briefing in the Oval Office on Thursday, presenting charts and economic data to argue that the U.S. economy remains strong despite a recent jobs report signaling potential weakness.

The appearance followed last week’s labor report, which showed slower job growth and prompted Trump to remove the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Joined by Stephen Moore, a senior visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation and co-author of Trumponomics, Trump aimed to reassure the public and reset the economic narrative.

Trump and Moore Present Economic Data

Flanked by a series of easel-mounted charts, Moore compared Trump’s current economic performance to that of former President Joe Biden, emphasizing what he said were stronger results under Trump’s leadership. The charts, Moore argued, demonstrated job creation, rising household incomes, and solid market performance.

Trump stood beside Moore, nodding in agreement and occasionally interjecting. “If I would have said this, nobody would have believed it,” Trump remarked, referring to Moore’s claim that median household income had already increased by $1,174 during Trump’s second term.

Moore stated that his figures were based on unpublished Census Bureau data, making independent verification challenging.

Disputes Over Jobs Data and BLS Leadership

The press event also served as Trump’s defense for dismissing Erika McEntarfer as head of the BLS. Moore claimed that BLS reports had overestimated job creation by 1.5 million during the final two years of Biden’s presidency.

“I think they did it purposely,” Trump said, though he did not present statistical evidence to support this claim. Economists note that revisions are a routine part of labor statistics, especially during periods of economic disruption.

Mixed Economic Picture

While the stock market has remained stable, job growth has slowed significantly. In the first seven months of 2025, employers added 597,000 jobs — about 44% fewer than during the same period in 2024. The July jobs report showed just 73,000 jobs added, with May and June numbers revised downward by 258,000.

By comparison, the economy under Biden added 2 million jobs in 2024 and 2.6 million in 2023. However, Biden’s tenure was marred by high inflation, which peaked in June 2022 when the Consumer Price Index reached a 40-year high.

Inflation Concerns Resurface

Trump’s policies, particularly new tariffs on imports, have sparked concerns about rising prices. Goldman Sachs projected that July’s inflation rate will reach 3% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April. Analysts warn that higher import costs could further strain household budgets.

During Biden’s presidency, inflation significantly impacted everyday costs, from groceries to housing. Many voters cited affordability concerns as a factor in Trump’s 2024 election victory.

Trump’s Economic Promises

Trump has pledged to deliver rapid economic growth in his second term. However, independent data often shows a more moderate picture. Moore, a longtime economic ally of Trump, has positioned himself as a defender of the administration’s policies, emphasizing household income gains as evidence of progress.

The administration is expected to continue highlighting positive economic metrics while pushing back against unfavorable reports. The coming months, particularly with inflation trends and job creation numbers, will test the strength of Trump’s economic narrative.

Source: AP News – Trump defends the US economy with charts after job reports showed warning signs

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Writing Time: August 3, 2025, 16:30 (U.S. Eastern Time)

In a sweeping escalation of trade policy, President Donald Trump has imposed a series of tariffs impacting dozens of nations—ranging from developing economies like Laos and Algeria to longtime U.S. allies such as Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom. While some countries negotiated partial relief by agreeing to Trump’s demands, even they now face significantly higher trade taxes. And for U.S. consumers and businesses, the fallout includes rising prices and mounting legal uncertainty.

A New Trade Order Driven by Presidential Power

President Trump’s actions follow his April 2 declaration of “Liberation Day,” when he invoked a 1977 law to declare America’s trade deficit a national emergency. This maneuver allowed him to bypass Congress and impose tariffs as high as 50% on imports from nations with which the U.S. runs trade deficits, and a 10% “baseline” on nearly all others.

The move has upended decades of multilateral trade norms. Instead of rule-based trade under the World Trade Organization, Trump’s approach has shifted toward unilateral enforcement and economic coercion.

“The biggest winner is Trump,” said Alan Wolff, a former U.S. trade official and ex-deputy director-general of the WTO. “He bet that he could get other countries to the table on the basis of threats, and he succeeded—dramatically.”

Winners, Losers, and the Price of Compliance

While a handful of countries avoided even steeper tariffs by negotiating new terms, the deals still entail significantly higher costs than before.

• The United Kingdom accepted a 10% tariff, up from just 1.3%.
• The European Union and Japan agreed to 15% tariffs, avoiding even higher proposed rates of 30% and 25%, respectively.
• Other nations—including Pakistan, Vietnam, Indonesia, South Korea, and the Philippines—also settled for higher tariffs rather than risk worse outcomes.

Still, even the so-called “winners” are paying more than before.

“In many respects, everybody’s a loser here,” said Barry Appleton, co-director of the Center for International Law at New York Law School.

Developing Nations Bear a Heavy Burden

Countries that did not strike deals, or ran afoul of Trump’s other political grievances, faced even more punitive measures.

• Laos, with a per capita GDP of just $2,100, now faces a 40% import tax.
• Algeria has been hit with a 30% tariff, despite its limited economic engagement with the U.S.
• Lesotho, a small southern African kingdom, saw its tariff reduced to 15% from the initial 50%, but not before suffering early economic disruptions.

Even Taiwan, which negotiated its tariff down from 32% to 20%, is still struggling with the economic impact.

“20% from the beginning has not been our goal,” said Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te. “We hope that in further negotiations we will get a more beneficial and more reasonable tax rate.”

Political Motivations Drive Selective Punishments

Some tariff hikes appear to be driven more by geopolitics than by trade imbalances.

• Brazil was slapped with a 50% tariff, reportedly due to Trump’s dissatisfaction with its treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
• Canada received a 35% tariff following its statement in support of recognizing a Palestinian state—an issue where Trump strongly backs Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
• Switzerland, despite its longstanding neutrality, saw its tariff raised to 39%, exceeding Trump’s original 31% proposal.

“The Swiss probably wish that they had camped in Washington to make a deal,” said Wolff, now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Legal Challenges and the Fight Over Executive Authority

Trump’s sweeping use of emergency powers has prompted legal backlash. Five U.S. companies and twelve states are suing the administration, arguing the 1977 law does not grant the president such expansive tariff-setting authority.

In May, the U.S. Court of International Trade sided with the challengers and blocked the tariffs, though allowed the government to continue collecting them pending appeal.

During a hearing this week, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit expressed skepticism over the administration’s justification, making it likely that the case could reach the Supreme Court.

“If [the tariffs] get struck down, then maybe Brazil’s a winner and not a loser,” said Appleton.

Domestic Consumers and Businesses Feel the Squeeze

While tariffs are levied on foreign goods, the financial burden is mostly shouldered by American importers—and by extension, U.S. consumers.

According to economists at Goldman Sachs, overseas exporters absorb only about 20% of the added costs. The remaining 80% falls on U.S. buyers, including companies like Walmart, Best Buy, Nike, and Procter & Gamble, all of which have raised prices in response.

“This is a consumption tax, so it disproportionately affects those who have lower incomes,” Appleton said. “Sneakers, knapsacks, appliances, video games—all of those are going to cost more because none of them are made in America.”

Historic Tariff Levels and Rising Household Costs

Trump’s tariffs have driven the average U.S. import tax from 2.5% at the start of 2025 to 18.3%, the highest since 1934, according to the Budget Lab at Yale University.

That increase is projected to cost the average U.S. household $2,400 per year, significantly affecting middle- and lower-income families.

“The U.S. consumer’s a big loser,” Wolff emphasized.

Looking Ahead: Uncertainty Reigns

As legal challenges proceed and trade partners consider their next moves, the future of Trump’s tariff regime remains unclear. What is evident, however, is that the global economic landscape has been dramatically reshaped—with no guarantees of long-term gains for any party involved.

Even among countries that secured deals, frustration is evident. Many are left questioning whether the concessions they made will pay off or merely delay further economic strain. Meanwhile, U.S. consumers and businesses continue to shoulder rising costs without any clear end in sight.

Source: AP News – From Laos to Brazil, Trump’s tariffs leave a lot of losers. But even the winners will pay a price

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Written: July 30, 2025, 16:00 EDT

President Donald Trump has announced a new 25% tariff on goods imported from India, citing what he described as unfair trade practices and India’s continued purchase of Russian oil. The move, made via a statement on Trump’s Truth Social platform, is part of a broader strategy to reshape U.S. trade relationships and strengthen American manufacturing.

Tariffs aimed at addressing trade imbalance and Russian oil imports

Trump stated that India, although a strategic partner, maintains “tariffs that are far too high” on U.S. goods. In addition to the base tariff, he proposed an unspecified “penalty” for India’s continued purchases of oil and military equipment from Russia—measures he claims indirectly support Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

The tariff and penalty are expected to take effect Friday, as part of the administration’s wider trade realignment with countries across Asia and Europe.

“India is our friend, but their tariffs are too high,” Trump wrote. “And buying oil and weapons from Russia is helping fund a war we oppose.”

Potential economic impact and industry reaction

The new tariffs are expected to make Indian products less competitive in the U.S. market compared to exports from other countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh. This has caused concern among Indian exporters, who were already navigating post-pandemic recovery and shifting global supply chains.

Ajay Sahai, Director General of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations, expressed uncertainty over the policy.

“We are back to square one, as Trump hasn’t spelled out what the penalties would be in addition to the tariff,” Sahai said in an interview. “The demand for Indian goods is bound to be hit.”

The United States recorded a $45.8 billion trade deficit with India last year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, highlighting a long-standing imbalance that Trump has often cited as justification for tougher trade measures.

Broader trade strategy includes new frameworks with allies

Trump’s tariff announcement follows a series of recent trade negotiations with the European Union, Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia. These new frameworks are intended to expand export opportunities for American companies while giving the administration flexibility to raise import taxes.

Trump has framed these measures as a tool to offset rising budget deficits tied to earlier tax cuts and to revitalize domestic industry by encouraging U.S. production.

Critics, however, caution that broad tariffs can lead to higher prices for American consumers and contribute to inflation. Economists note that increased import taxes are often passed along to businesses and shoppers, diluting any potential gains in job creation or trade balance.

Pushback from global allies and Europe’s response

The Trump administration’s tariff-first approach has also triggered friction with traditional allies. A new 15% tariff targeting goods from European Union countries has led to calls for a more assertive European trade strategy.

In response, French President Emmanuel Macron told cabinet members on Wednesday that Europe must assert greater economic sovereignty.

“To be free, you have to be feared,” Macron said. “We have not been feared enough. There is a greater urgency than ever to accelerate the European agenda for sovereignty and competitiveness.”

Macron also signaled continued negotiations with the United States to finalize the broader trade framework, despite tensions over tariffs.

U.S.–India relations face new uncertainty

The latest tariffs could complicate efforts to double U.S.–India trade to $500 billion by 2030—a target discussed in multiple bilateral meetings. The two countries have already held five rounds of negotiations aimed at reducing trade barriers and crafting a comprehensive agreement.

While the United States seeks greater market access and near-zero tariffs on key exports, Indian officials have hesitated to open sensitive sectors like agriculture and dairy, which employ a large portion of India’s population.

In February, during a visit to India, Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged closer energy cooperation, with India agreeing to purchase U.S. natural gas and oil. The new penalties, however, suggest a shift in tone despite the two leaders’ historically friendly relationship.

Trump commented on the evolving trade policy during a return flight from Scotland earlier in the week but withheld specifics at the time.

“We’re going to see,” he said when asked about the rumored 25% rate on Indian goods.

Back at the White House, he initially suggested no immediate action would be announced—a claim that proved inaccurate when the tariff decision was posted online the following day.

Outlook: More friction or future negotiation?

As the administration moves forward with its updated tariff regime, global markets and diplomatic ties face a period of renewed uncertainty. India’s strategic position in the Indo-Pacific, its population of over 1.4 billion, and its role as a counterweight to China make its economic ties with Washington a critical component of U.S. foreign policy.

Whether Trump’s latest tariff measures serve as a bargaining chip or a long-term policy remains to be seen. Analysts say much will depend on India’s response and the pace of future trade talks between the two countries.

Source: AP News – Trump announces 25% tariff on India and unspecified penalties for buying Russian oil

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Trump Announces New Trade Deal with Japan, Lowers Tariff to 15%

President Donald Trump has announced a new trade deal with Japan that will lower tariffs on Japanese goods to 15%. The agreement also includes promises of major investments in the U.S. and better access for American products in Japan. The deal is part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to reshape global trade and reduce America’s trade deficits.

Here’s what you need to know about the deal, why it matters, and how it fits into Trump’s larger trade strategy.

What’s in the New U.S.-Japan Trade Deal?

The new trade agreement includes a few major points:

• A 15% tariff will be placed on Japanese imports to the U.S.
• Japan has pledged to invest $550 billion in the U.S.
• Japan will open its markets to American-made automobiles and rice.

Trump described the deal as historic, writing on Truth Social:

“This Deal will create Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs — There has never been anything like it.”

The 15% tariff is a reduction from the 25% rate that Trump had earlier threatened to impose starting August 1. That higher rate had caused concern in the markets when it was first announced.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba responded to the announcement early Wednesday, calling the agreement a positive step for both countries.

Why This Matters for the U.S. Economy

Trump is using this deal to highlight his reputation as a strong negotiator. His administration argues that tariffs and trade pressure can help bring investment back to the U.S., create jobs, and reduce America’s large trade deficits.

The U.S. had a $69.4 billion goods trade imbalance with Japan last year, meaning it imported far more than it exported. Trump wants to reverse that by encouraging companies to build factories in the U.S. instead of overseas.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed this goal in a recent TV interview, saying:

“President Trump is remaking the U.S. into a manufacturing economy.”

Impact of Tariffs Still Unclear

While Trump’s trade team says the tariffs will benefit the U.S., the broader impact is still uncertain. Some businesses and economists warn that the tariffs could lead to higher prices for American consumers and companies.

This concern showed up in real numbers this week. On Tuesday, General Motors reported a 35% drop in its net income for the second quarter and blamed tariffs for hurting its business. The company’s stock fell after the announcement.

So far, the markets have settled since the initial panic in April when tariffs were first floated. But worries about long-term economic effects remain.

Trump Also Announces New Tariffs on the Philippines and Indonesia

In addition to the Japan deal, Trump said the U.S. would move forward with a trade agreement with the Philippines. That plan includes:

• A 19% tariff on Philippine imports
• No tariffs on U.S. goods entering the Philippines

Trump also reaffirmed a 19% tariff on goods from Indonesia. Both countries have significant trade imbalances with the U.S. — $4.9 billion with the Philippines and $17.9 billion with Indonesia, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

These new tariffs are part of a wave of global trade actions that are set to take effect on August 1, based on letters Trump sent to world leaders.

What’s Next? Trade Talks with Europe and China

The Trump administration is also preparing for high-stakes negotiations with the European Union. On Tuesday night, Trump said that EU officials would arrive in Washington the next day to discuss trade.

Earlier this month, Trump threatened the EU with a 30% tariff on its goods if a deal isn’t reached by August 1.

Talks with China are following a different timeline. Tariffs on Chinese goods currently sit at 30%, and both sides have until August 12 to negotiate further.

Treasury Secretary Bessent is scheduled to meet with Chinese officials next week in Stockholm, Sweden. His goal, he said, is to rebalance the global economy by encouraging more U.S. manufacturing and more Chinese consumer spending.

Bottom Line

President Trump’s new trade deal with Japan marks a significant move in his global trade strategy. By lowering tariffs from 25% to 15% and securing investment promises, he’s positioning the deal as a win for American workers and businesses.

But with broader tariff threats still looming — and companies like GM already feeling the effects — it remains to be seen how these changes will play out across the economy. The coming weeks will bring more talks with Europe and China, and potentially more changes to the way the U.S. trades with the world.

Source: AP News – Trump announces trade deal with Japan that lowers threatened tariff to 15%

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WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump’s ambitious promise to finalize 200 trade deals has fallen far short, with only three agreements — with China, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam — officially announced more than two months past his self-imposed 100-day milestone.

With a revised deadline now set for August 1, the administration is scrambling to show progress, especially as negotiations with the European Union inch toward a potential breakthrough.

Trump Shifts Rhetoric as Original Deadline Passes

Originally, Trump gave trading partners until July 9 to strike bilateral agreements or face sweeping new “reciprocal” tariffs. But the president’s decision to delay those penalties, hoping to spur negotiations, left little time for meaningful progress, administration sources told CNN.

Facing limited results, Trump has pivoted from touting completed deals to threatening new tariffs through formal letters sent to U.S. trading partners. These actions, aides say, are meant to show forward momentum as high-stakes negotiations continue.

European Union Deal on the Horizon

The most promising development involves the EU, which is nearing a framework agreement with the U.S. that could impose 10% tariffs and lay the groundwork for deeper trade talks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pushed for a deadline extension to accommodate the EU talks and several other near-final negotiations.

While the agreement is not yet finalized, EU officials confirmed that negotiators are in active discussions with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. An official announcement could come by the end of the week.

Trump’s stance on the EU has shifted notably in recent weeks. After a public threat in late May to slap 50% tariffs on European goods, both sides accelerated their efforts to avoid a trade war. Behind closed doors, EU officials have been briefing member states on the proposed deal, urging unity to prevent the looming tariffs scheduled for August 1.

Sticking Points: Autos, Steel, and Sectoral Exemptions

U.S. negotiators continue to resist EU requests for exemptions from existing or planned sectoral tariffs, particularly those targeting autos and steel. Reducing Trump’s 25% auto tariff and a 50% levy on steel remains central to the talks.

Still, U.S. officials have signaled openness to adjust tariffs on select EU goods — including aircraft, alcoholic beverages, and some farm exports — pending the president’s final approval.

The EU, in turn, has committed to increasing purchases of American energy and defense products. But if no deal is reached, the bloc plans to activate retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods starting July 14 — though that deadline may shift following Trump’s extension.

“There are limits to the bloc’s patience,” Denmark’s Minister of European Affairs Marie Bjerre warned the European Parliament on Wednesday.

Trump Frustrated by Lagging Progress

In a cabinet meeting Tuesday, Trump expressed frustration with the slow pace of negotiations and the nature of offers coming from foreign partners.

“They say: ‘You can sell anything to us tariff-free — just don’t charge us,’” Trump said. “We don’t like that deal.”

This week, the White House began sending letters to Japan and South Korea imposing 25% tariffs, with more letters expected to follow.

India, Japan, and South Korea Talks Stalling

While India was once seen as a likely early partner, its negotiators have taken a tougher stance in recent days, complicating prospects for a deal. India’s membership in the BRICS alliance has also muddied talks, especially after Trump floated a 10% tariff targeting all BRICS nations.

South Korea, too, was considered close to finalizing an agreement. But negotiations have stumbled over U.S. auto tariffs, and a new letter sent Monday may further delay progress.

Japan appears to be backing away from a deal altogether. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Tuesday that, despite “earnest and sincere discussions,” the U.S. government’s tariff moves have made a deal unworkable.

Southeast Asia and Brazil Push for Deals

In contrast, Southeast Asian nations — including Indonesia, Cambodia, and Thailand — have stepped up their offers in hopes of reaching agreements before the August 1 deadline.

Brazil is also accelerating its efforts, engaging in bilateral talks last week and proposing steep tariff cuts on certain U.S. exports.

Yet a consistent source of friction remains: foreign officials say they still don’t fully understand what the U.S. expects in a final deal. The lack of clear parameters, combined with the looming threat of sector-specific tariffs on autos, steel, and pharmaceuticals, continues to stall progress.

Outlook: Pressure Builds as August 1 Approaches

With only a handful of trade deals finalized and dozens more in limbo, Trump’s trade strategy faces mounting pressure. The coming weeks will test whether his tariff threats will force more countries to the table — or trigger a broader wave of retaliatory measures that could hurt U.S. exporters.

For now, all eyes remain on the European Union, where a pending deal could signal either a breakthrough or another missed opportunity in the president’s faltering push to reshape global trade.

Source: CNN – Trump promised 200 deals by now. He’s gotten 3, and 1 more is getting very close

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President Donald Trump is once again raising trade tensions—this time with Japan—by threatening new tariffs over what he claims is Tokyo’s refusal to buy American-grown rice.

“They won’t take our RICE, and yet they have a massive rice shortage,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “In other words, we’ll just be sending them a letter, and we love having them as a Trading Partner for many years to come.”

But here’s the catch: Japan is buying U.S. rice.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Japan purchased $298 million worth of American rice last year and another $114 million between January and April of this year. So, Trump’s claim that Japan “won’t take” American rice doesn’t match up with trade data.

What’s Really Behind the Complaint?

Sources familiar with Trump’s thinking suggest he may be referring to long-standing frustrations with Japan’s tightly regulated rice market. A 2021 U.S. Trade Representative report during the Biden administration criticized Japan’s rice import system as “highly regulated and nontransparent,” saying it limits access for U.S. exporters.

Still, Japan hasn’t publicly stated any intention to cut off U.S. rice imports.

When asked about Trump’s remarks, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi confirmed that trade talks between the two nations are ongoing but declined to comment directly on Trump’s post.

“While we refrain from disclosing the specifics of our discussions with the U.S., Japan will continue to vigorously pursue sincere and honest discussions with the aim of achieving an agreement that will benefit both Japan and the U.S.,” Hayashi said Tuesday.

The Bigger Picture: “Reciprocal” Tariffs in Play

Trump’s rice comments come as part of a broader push to pressure trade partners. Earlier this year, he paused the implementation of his proposed “reciprocal” tariffs—a plan to match U.S. tariffs with those that other countries place on American goods. That 90-day pause is set to expire on July 9, and what happens next remains unclear.

In a recent Fox News interview, Trump said he plans to send warning letters to foreign governments about potential tariff hikes. He singled out Japan during the interview, joking:

“Dear Mr. Japan, here’s the story: You’re going to pay a 25% tariff on your cars.”

Before the pause, Japanese car exports were briefly hit with a 24% tariff. During the pause, those exports have been subject to a universal 10% rate.

Talks Still Underway

Despite the rhetoric, negotiations with Japan haven’t collapsed. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told reporters Monday that discussions are still in progress.

“Nothing is over,” Hassett said. “I know what he just posted, but there’ll still be discussions right up till the end. Even if we get a framework, then there’s still gonna be things to finalize.”

As the July 9 deadline approaches, Japan—and other countries—are left waiting to see if Trump follows through with another round of tariff hikes, or if cooler heads will prevail.

Source: CNN – Trump threatens Japan with new tariffs, claiming it won’t buy America’s rice

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As world leaders prepare to gather in the Canadian Rockies for this year’s G7 summit, the headlines may be dominated by Israel’s unprecedented strike on Iran—but behind the scenes, trade is poised to be just as urgent a topic.

With less than a month before President Donald Trump’s self-imposed July 9 deadline on sweeping new tariffs, nations are scrambling to avoid what could become a full-blown trade crisis.

“You can’t afford not to talk about it, from any country’s perspective,” said Josh Lipsky, chair of international economics at the Atlantic Council.

The Clock Is Ticking on Trump’s Trade Ultimatum

At the center of it all is Trump’s warning: without new trade deals, dozens of countries—including some of America’s closest allies—could face sharply higher tariffs. The president has floated so-called “reciprocal” rates that could reach up to 50% on some imports.

While Trump has hinted at the possibility of extending the deadline for countries “negotiating in good faith,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made clear last week that such leniency won’t be automatic.

So, while international security will still command attention, trade is very much on the official agenda—unless, as economist Maurice Obstfeld put it, “the security situation becomes world-threateningly grave.”

Tariffs Are Already Taking a Toll

Trump’s 10% blanket tariff, combined with targeted hikes of 50% on steel, 25% on aluminum, and a proposed 25% on cars, is starting to ripple through global markets.

In the UK, new data shows the economy contracted in April at a rate not seen in nearly two years—thanks largely to a historic drop in exports to the U.S.

And that’s just the beginning. The World Bank recently warned that this decade could bring the weakest stretch of global growth since the 1960s. A major factor: uncertainty around U.S. trade policy.

According to the Bank’s latest projections, the U.S. and Europe are expected to face some of the steepest growth slowdowns due to reduced trade and mounting tariff tensions.

Every Leader Wants a Deal—But Can They Get One?

Trump administration officials say the president is laser-focused on making U.S. trade “fair and reciprocal,” and that it will be a central point of discussion at the summit.

Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has already confirmed that his one-on-one with Trump will zero in on their ongoing trade negotiations. But don’t expect a major announcement.

“Even if they’re close to a deal, it doesn’t make sense to announce it in front of other leaders and give Trump that leverage,” said Lipsky. Still, a public signal that progress is being made—especially with Japan—seems likely.

Alongside the G7 countries (U.S., Japan, UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Canada), this year’s summit will also host leaders from the EU, Australia, India, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, and Ukraine.

EU Talks Remain the Big Wild Card

If there’s one relationship on thin ice, it’s the U.S.-EU trade dynamic.

Just two weeks ago, Trump threatened a massive 50% tariff on EU exports, accusing leaders of stalling talks. Days later, after a phone call with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, he eased off—at least for now.

European officials, according to Obstfeld, would gladly strike a deal that lowers tariffs without giving up too much. But they’re unlikely to scrap their value-added tax (VAT)—a sticking point Trump has repeatedly called “unfair” to U.S. exporters.

And even though Trump is expected to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, trade likely won’t dominate those chats. That’s because von der Leyen is the EU’s lead negotiator—creating, as Lipsky puts it, “a strange dynamic” when it comes to hashing out trade policy in bilateral meetings.

Source: CNN – World leaders will still talk trade at the G7. They ‘can’t afford not to’

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WASHINGTON — Just six months into his new role as Senate Majority Leader, Sen. John Thune is facing a defining moment — and the pressure is on.

Thune’s first big challenge? Navigating President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill through a sharply divided GOP Senate, all while racing against a July 4 deadline set by Trump himself.

The stakes are sky-high: Thune can only afford to lose four Republican votes to pass the bill, and several GOP senators have already raised serious concerns. Meanwhile, Democrats are united in opposition.

“This is when John’s leadership is going to be desperately needed,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), one of the skeptics of the bill’s fast phaseout of certain energy tax credits.

A Tightrope Walk for Thune and the GOP

To get the legislation across the finish line, Thune must strike a delicate balance. He needs to keep his conference unified without alienating House Republicans, who barely passed the bill by a single vote last month after intense internal wrangling.

It’s a complex and risky endeavor — one that could define Thune’s first year as leader and cement his working relationship with Trump.

Despite their rocky history, Thune has stayed in close touch with the White House, making multiple visits to discuss the bill with the former president.

“Individual pieces of it people don’t like,” Thune acknowledged this week. “But in the end, we have to succeed.”

A New Style of Senate Leadership

Thune’s leadership marks a stark contrast to his predecessor, Sen. Mitch McConnell, known for his tightly controlled inner circle and often icy relationships with colleagues.

Thune has taken a more open-door approach, hosting small group and one-on-one meetings with senators to hear their concerns.

“It’s very much a change,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND). “He’s already made a lot of people happier just by listening.”

Even Florida Sen. Rick Scott — a former rival who ran against Thune for the leadership post and remains critical of the bill’s lack of deeper spending cuts — has praised Thune’s willingness to listen.

“I’d be very surprised if anybody doesn’t believe he’s receptive to their ideas,” Scott said. “And when people feel heard, there’s a greater chance they’ll go along with something.”

Mending Fences with Trump

Thune and Trump have had a complicated relationship. Thune was one of the few Republicans who criticized Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election. Trump didn’t endorse Thune’s reelection bid in 2022, and Thune initially backed Sen. Tim Scott in the 2024 primary.

But the two have since reconciled, finding common ground as Thune works to shepherd Trump’s legislative priorities through the Senate.

Running a Tighter Ship in the Senate

While Thune has earned goodwill for his collaborative style, he’s also shown he’s not afraid to crack the whip.

He’s shortened Senate vote times from hours to just 15 minutes — a move that surprised some lawmakers and caused a few to miss key votes at first. But the message was clear: punctuality matters.

“Did he get yelled at a little bit? Yeah,” said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD). “But once they got cut off once or twice, they realized — if you want to vote, make it on time.”

Can Thune Deliver?

With less than a month to meet Trump’s July 4 deadline, Thune’s ability to bridge ideological divides and keep his party together will be tested like never before.

The outcome of the tax bill won’t just determine the fate of a major piece of Trump’s economic agenda — it may also define John Thune’s legacy as a Senate leader.

“Everybody wants to work with John,” said Rounds. “He’s not making anybody mad right now.”

For now, Thune has the goodwill of his colleagues and the confidence of the president. Whether that’s enough to pull off a political balancing act of this scale remains to be seen.

Source: AP News – Thune’s first big test as Senate leader has arrived with Trump’s tax bill

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In a surprise turn, former President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that he’s delaying a planned 50% tariff on European Union imports until July 9 — just days after doubling down on tough trade talk.

Speaking to reporters at Morristown Municipal Airport in New Jersey, Trump said the delay came after what he described as a “very nice call” with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

“She wants to get down to serious negotiation,” Trump said. “She asked if we could move the date from June 1 to July 9 — and I agreed. We’ll get together rapidly and see if we can work something out.”

This is the latest example of Trump walking back a tariff threat after initially rattling markets. Just Friday, he insisted the EU tariffs were set in stone and would take effect June 1. Those tariffs would have followed a previously announced — and also delayed — 20% reciprocal tariff from April.

Shortly after his remarks, Trump posted on Truth Social, confirming that trade talks would “begin rapidly.”

Von der Leyen echoed the sentiment in a post on X, calling it a “good call” and noting that the EU is ready to push ahead with negotiations. “To reach a good deal, we would need the time until July 9,” she said. “Europe is ready to advance talks swiftly and decisively.”

Market Reaction

News of the delay helped lift Asian stock markets modestly on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained as much as 0.8%, South Korea’s KOSPI rose 0.9%, and China’s Shanghai Composite edged up 0.3%. Other indexes, including Taiwan’s TAIEX and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200, remained mostly flat, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.3%.

Behind the Tariff Talk

Trump has repeatedly criticized what he calls “non-monetary trade barriers” and often targets countries or blocs that run trade surpluses with the U.S. In 2024, the U.S. reported a $236 billion trade deficit with the EU, according to Commerce Department figures.

He’s also been vocal about reshaping the focus of U.S. manufacturing. On Sunday, Trump backed recent comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, suggesting America doesn’t need to bring back industries like textiles.

“We’re not looking to make sneakers and T-shirts,” Trump said. “We want to make military equipment. We want to do the ‘AI thing’ with computers.”

Source: CNN – Trump delays 50% EU tariffs until July 9

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As President Donald Trump’s trade negotiating team prepared for crucial talks with China, something unexpected happened—Trump took to social media to stir the pot before the official discussions even began. It was a typical move for the unpredictable leader, though it left Chinese officials puzzled and intrigued.

Trump’s surprise announcement suggested that he might reduce his 145% tariffs on Chinese imports to 80%. This public declaration, made just hours before key meetings in Geneva, appeared to be a negotiation tactic—a way to play his hand early. However, it wasn’t really a shock to his inner circle. In fact, internal discussions had already touched on the possibility of lowering tariffs as part of broader negotiations with China.

But it was certainly new information for Chinese officials, who are still trying to interpret Trump’s next move. Trump also mentioned Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in the post, presenting him as the final decision-maker. This, however, was a strategic move aimed at elevating Bessent’s status in front of Chinese negotiators. In reality, both Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping would be the key players in any major deal.

The Talks Begin in Geneva

Bessent, along with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, arrived in Geneva for two days of high-level meetings with top Chinese officials. These talks weren’t expected to deliver immediate breakthroughs, but both sides were hopeful for tangible outcomes.

The White House has framed the U.S.-China negotiations as a distinct track from the broader array of trade deals Trump’s team is pursuing with other nations. While some of those deals, like those with South Korea and Japan, are seen as pressure points on China, the discussions in Geneva were focused more specifically on de-escalation and building trust between the two countries.

Trump’s team is aiming for gradual steps, including possible moves to address fentanyl production and the revival of the Phase One trade deal from his first term. Both sides also face concerns over rare earths export controls, though a comprehensive agreement would likely take years to negotiate.

Trump’s “Wild Card” Negotiation Style

Trump’s negotiating style is anything but conventional. He’s known for being a wild card—someone who can dramatically shift the course of negotiations at any moment. His team, though, is working hard to ensure that these meetings don’t descend into chaos. There have been promising signs that the U.S. and China are approaching the talks with a greater degree of respect and professionalism.

Top Chinese officials, including Xi’s economic advisor He Lifeng, are leading the delegation, signaling the seriousness of the discussions. On the U.S. side, Bessent and Greer are highly respected figures in Trump’s economic circle, ensuring that both sides have experienced negotiators at the table.

The Big Picture: Trump’s Focus on China

Trump’s approach to China has been deeply strategic. While there’s no shortage of tension in the U.S.-China relationship, Trump’s team believes that China cannot sustain a prolonged trade war with the U.S. The Chinese economy, already fragile, would be severely strained by a continued standoff with the world’s largest economy.

In the lead-up to these talks, Chinese officials have quietly reached out to U.S. counterparts, suggesting a willingness to address Trump’s key concerns—like the fentanyl issue. For Trump, striking a sweeping economic deal with China has been a long-standing goal, one he’s pursued with unwavering determination. His ambition to secure such a deal may be likened to his desire for a Nobel Peace Prize—an elusive but powerful symbol of success.

As the talks unfold, there’s a sense that Trump may push for a grand bargain, one that could reshape the economic landscape for both nations. But as always, the question remains: Will Trump stick to his strategy, or will he throw another curveball? Time will tell.

Source: CNN – Inside Trump’s negotiating strategy with China

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