China’s population declines for fourth straight year as births hit post-1949 low

China (Journos News) – China’s population shrank for a fourth consecutive year in 2025, according to official data, as births fell to their lowest level since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949. Despite years of policy reversals and new incentives aimed at encouraging families to have more children, the demographic slide shows little sign of easing.

The figures highlight one of the most complex challenges facing the world’s second-largest economy: how to sustain growth and social stability as the population ages rapidly and the workforce contracts. For policymakers, the decline is no longer a distant risk but a structural reality shaping China’s economic transition.

New statistics released this week illustrate the limits of recent efforts to reverse decades of family planning restrictions and signal that deeper social and economic factors continue to outweigh government incentives.

Population continues to shrink

China’s total population stood at 1.404 billion in 2025, about 3 million fewer than the previous year, according to government data cited by the Associated Press. The country has now recorded four consecutive years of population decline, a trend that began after decades of near-continuous growth.

China lost its status as the world’s most populous nation in 2023, when it was overtaken by India. Since then, annual data releases have underscored how quickly demographic momentum has shifted.

Measured by births rather than total population, the picture is even starker. The birth rate in 2025 fell to 5.63 births per 1,000 people, the lowest level recorded since 1949. Comparable nationwide data from before the communist revolution are not available.

Births fall sharply after brief uptick

The number of babies born in 2025 dropped to 7.92 million, down 1.62 million from the previous year — a decline of about 17%. The data suggest that a modest rise in births recorded in 2024 was short-lived, rather than the start of a sustained recovery.

Births had already declined for seven consecutive years through 2023. The latest figures indicate that underlying pressures on family formation remain largely unchanged.

Households frequently cite the high cost of raising children, long working hours, and intense competition in education and employment as major deterrents. These concerns have been amplified by slower economic growth and ongoing strains on household finances.

Cultural factors may also play a role. In 2025, China marked the Year of the Snake in the traditional lunar calendar, which is often considered an unfavorable year for childbirth, though analysts caution that such effects are marginal compared with economic and social drivers.

Fertility well below replacement level

Like several other East Asian economies, China is grappling with a persistently low fertility rate — the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime. While Chinese authorities do not publish this figure regularly, the last official estimate was 1.3 in 2020.

Independent experts now estimate that fertility has fallen to around 1, far below the replacement level of roughly 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population without migration.

Demographers note that once fertility drops this low, reversing the trend becomes extremely difficult, even with aggressive policy support. Delayed marriage, fewer marriages overall, and changing expectations around family life have become entrenched, particularly in large cities.

From one-child policy to pro-birth push

For decades, China enforced strict limits on family size through the one-child policy, a cornerstone of population control that shaped two generations of only children. The policy was formally relaxed in 2015, when couples were allowed to have two children.

As demographic pressures intensified, authorities expanded the limit again in 2021, permitting up to three children per family. The policy shift marked a dramatic reversal, but it has not led to a sustained increase in births.

In recent years, the government has layered financial incentives onto the policy changes. In July, authorities announced cash subsidies of 3,600 yuan (about $500) per child for eligible families, alongside expanded support for childcare services.

Taxes, incentives, and mixed signals

Officials have also adjusted tax policy in ways intended to encourage child-rearing. Kindergartens, daycare centers, and matchmaking services have been added to tax-exemption lists, reducing operating costs in sectors linked to family formation.

At the same time, contraceptives were removed from a value-added tax exemption list in 2025. As a result, condoms are now subject to a 13% tax that took effect on Jan. 1, a move that drew attention as an example of how fiscal tools are being used to influence behavior.

Analysts say such measures, while symbolically significant, are unlikely to outweigh broader economic concerns such as housing costs, job insecurity, and the long-term expense of education and elder care.

Aging population and economic stakes

The demographic challenge extends well beyond birth statistics. China now has about 323 million people aged 60 and over, accounting for roughly 23% of the population. That share continues to rise each year.

As the working-age population shrinks, fewer workers are available to support a growing number of retirees, putting pressure on public finances, healthcare systems, and family networks.

This shift is unfolding as China attempts to move away from labor-intensive manufacturing and agriculture toward a more consumer-driven economy centered on advanced manufacturing and services. Slower population growth risks complicating that transition by dampening domestic demand and constraining productivity gains.

Economists widely agree that demographics will be a defining factor in China’s growth outlook over the coming decades. While policy adjustments may soften the impact at the margins, the latest data suggest that the era of rapid population expansion has decisively ended.