UFC 317 Predictions: Best Bets, Smart Picks, and Sleeper Value Heading Into International Fight Week

The biggest MMA event of the summer is here—UFC 317 touches down in Las Vegas this Saturday to cap off International Fight Week with a stacked card and two major title fights. From rising contenders to proven champions, there’s no shortage of action—or betting intrigue—on the main card.

Whether you’re looking to lock in a wager or just get a better feel for what’s at stake, we’ve broken down the five main card matchups with smart plays and odds (via DraftKings) to guide your picks. Let’s dive in.

Main Event: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira

Pick: Charles Oliveira moneyline (+350)

This one’s all about value. Yes, Ilia Topuria is the rightful favorite. He’s undefeated, explosive, and moving up in weight after vacating the featherweight belt. But this is Charles Oliveira—the most prolific finisher in UFC history—we’re talking about, and he’s being offered at +350?

Sure, Oliveira has taken some damage lately (notably losses to Islam Makhachev and a razor-thin decision to Arman Tsarukyan), but that’s no reason to count him out. If this fight goes to the mat, or even if it just becomes a war of attrition, Oliveira has the tools to shock Topuria. At these odds, betting on the underdog isn’t just a gamble—it’s smart value.

Alternative angle: Topuria by KO/TKO/DQ at -175 if you’re backing the favorite.

Co-Main Event: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France (Flyweight Title Bout)

Pick: Alexandre Pantoja moneyline (-238)

Pantoja isn’t just the reigning flyweight champ—he’s one of the most dominant fighters in the division’s history. With wins over most of the 125-pound elite, his mix of relentless pressure, takedowns, and submission threats has made him a nightmare to prepare for.

Kara-France is dangerous on the feet and comes in with heavy hands, but he’s 1-2 in his last three and hasn’t faced a grappler on Pantoja’s level. Unless Kara-France lands something fight-ending, this feels like another dominant performance for the champ.

Bonus stat: Pantoja averages 2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes, and Kara-France’s 88% takedown defense might not hold up against that volume.

Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van

Pick: Brandon Royval +3.5 point spread (-200)
(Alternate value: Royval moneyline -102)

Joshua Van is just 23 but already showing huge promise. He’s on a four-fight win streak with a recent TKO just three weeks ago—a lightning-fast turnaround. But now he’s facing Royval, a veteran with a deep résumé and only three UFC losses, all to current or former champs.

Royval’s unorthodox striking and experience give him the edge in a fast-paced fight. The +3.5 spread bet covers you if Royval wins or even if he loses a competitive decision. He’s too good to be blown out.

Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano

Pick: Fight to NOT go the distance (-165)

This is one of those “something’s got to give” matchups. Dariush, once a top contender, has been knocked out in back-to-back fights. Moicano, meanwhile, has been quietly climbing with a dangerous ground game and underrated striking.

Both men are extremely capable—but also extremely vulnerable. Dariush has been finished six times, Moicano five. That’s a recipe for fireworks, and it’s hard to see this one going all three rounds.

Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima

Pick: Payton Talbott +3.5 point spread (-150)

Talbott got humbled in January as a -1050 favorite when he was outwrestled by Raoni Barcelos. But don’t jump off the hype train just yet. He’s still a talented striker with a high ceiling, and every round starts on the feet—a good place for him to shine.

Lima will try to replicate Barcelos’ game plan and grind out a win on the mat. But we like Talbott to keep it close, possibly even take a round. The +3.5 spread gives you cover in case he loses on the cards but doesn’t get dominated.

Quick Recap of Picks

• Oliveira (+350) — Too much value to ignore against Topuria
• Pantoja (-238) — The champ should roll, especially if it hits the mat
• Royval +3.5 (-200) — Veteran savvy vs. fast-rising prospect
• Dariush vs. Moicano: Fight doesn’t go the distance (-165)
• Talbott +3.5 (-150) — Bet on the bounce-back with room for error

Final Word

After a 2–3 showing at UFC 316, our 2025 record stands at a respectable 16–12. The key this week? Smart risk-taking. From underdog plays like Oliveira to point-spread hedges with Royval and Talbott, this is a card where the sharp money lies in nuance, not chalk.

So whether you’re betting big or just watching for the thrill, UFC 317 promises a night of high-stakes drama in Las Vegas. Let’s see how the chips fall.